【作者】 肖庆业；

【导师】 陈建成；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 退耕还林工程是建国以来涉及范围最广、投资规模最大、任务量最重、群众参与度最高的重大生态建设工程。然而,各退耕区工程建设究竟处于什么水平?退耕还林工程究竟对各地产生了什么影响?下一步退耕还林工程建设策略该如何制定?这些问题都需要对退耕还林工程效益进行评价。退耕还林工程实施以来,许多专家和学者对工程的效益评价进行了研究,也取得了一些成果。然而研究不系统、指标体系不完善、评价方法不一致、不科学的现状严重制约了退耕还林工程效益评价活动的现实指导作用。为此,本文在总结已有退耕还林工程效益评价研究成果的基础上,构建了退耕还林工程综合效益评价指标体系；为提高退耕还林工程效益评价结果的可信度及准确性,将当前热点的组合评价方法引入到退耕还林工程效益评价中,建立了退耕还林工程综合效益组合评价模型。并利用组合评价法,对中国南方10个典型县退耕还林工程效益进行了实证分析。在评价研究的基础上,利用调查结果,提出政策建议,为退耕还林工程的持续健康发展和完善相关政策提供科学依据。主要研究内容如下：1、建立退耕还林工程综合效益评价指标体系。根据评价指标体系构建原则,在理论和实践依据指导下,通过对退耕还林工程内涵的深入理解,按照构建总体框架—理论预选评价指标—专家筛选评价指标—建立指标体系四个步骤,建立最终的综合效益评价指标体系。该指标体系包含目标层、系统层、状态层和指标层四个层次共20项指标。2、应用组合评价方法建立退耕还林工程综合效益评价模型。首先对多种单一评价法进行深入研究,比较单一评价方法的特点及适用性,进而确定本文退耕还林工程效益评价的四种单一评价方法。其次,通过查阅大量中外文献,对组合评价的研究内容和研究现状进行了梳理,对一些常见的组合评价方法优缺点及适用性进行了对比分析,在此基础上,构建了平均值组合评价模型,从而构建出较为完善的组合评价理论体系。3、退耕还林工程效益组合评价实证分析。本文在国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目—中国南方退耕还林工程建设效益监测与评价研究(项目编号：201004018)课题的支撑下,以中国南方10个典型县为研究区,通过植被及林分调查、土壤调查、林地水文调查,收集有关退耕还林工程建设规划资料、统计资料、退耕还林工程项目实施方案、总结材料及科研成果等方面的资料、查阅相关统计年鉴,对南方10个典型县退耕还林工程效益进行静态、动态以及综合、分项细致的实证分析,得出10个典型县退耕还林工程效益组合评价得分和排名,以及近五年发展变化态势,实证研究有助于正确评价各典型县退耕还林现状和潜力,及时了解各县域发展动向及发展趋势,制定完善的退耕还林政策,有助于各县之间相互促进、共同发展,实现退耕还林工程整体的健康发展。4、在评价研究的基础上,利用实地调查结果,探讨提高退耕还林工程效益的政策建议,以促进退耕还林地区生态、经济、社会的和谐发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program is a major ecological construction project which has the widest scope,the largest investment, the most task and the highest public participation since the founding of new China. However, What level is the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program construction in? What influence has the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program on the area? How to draw up the subsequent policy of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program? All these problems are dependent on the benefit evaluation of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program. Many experts and scholars have studied the project benefit and obtained some achievements. However, no system study, no perfectful index system,no consistent and scientific evaluation methods restrict the practical significance of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program benefit evaluation activities.Therefore,based on current benefit evaluation research results, the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program is established. In order to improve the credibility and accuracy of evaluation results,the combination evaluation method is introduced into the evaluation and the comprehensive benefit combination evaluation model is established. The benefit of ten typical counties in Southern China is evaluated according to the combination evaluation method. On the basis of evaluation research, policy suggestions are put forward to provide scientific basis for sustainable and healthy development of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program and perfect the relevant policy. The main research contents are as follows:Firstly,the comprehensive benefit evaluation index system of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program is established. According to the construction principles of evaluation index system, under the guidance of theory and practice,by means of the in-depth understanding of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program, the benefit evaluation index system of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program is established according to four steps of the building of the overall framework, theoretically preliminary selection,expert selection of the index system, establishment of the index system. The index system has four levels including the target layer, system layer, state layer and index layer and has a total of20indexes.Secondly,the combination evaluation method is applied to establish the comprehensive benefit evaluation model of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program. A lot of single evaluation methods are studied in-depthly. The characteristics and applicability of single evaluation method is compared. And then four single evaluation methods in this paper are determined. Through a large number of Chinese and foreign literature, the research content and status of combination evaluation is reviewed, the advantages and disadvantages and applicability of some common combination evaluation methods are compared, average combination evaluation model is constructed. A relatively perfect combination evaluation theory system is built.Thirdly, combination evaluation empirical analysis of the benefit of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program is conducted. Supported by State Forestry Administration forestry public welfare industry scientific research special funds project-benefit monitoring and evaluation research of CCFP in South China (item number-201004018) according to the vegetation and forest survey, soil survey,forest hydrological survey,construction planning data,statistical data,implementation plans,conclusion material,scientif research achievements are collected,related statistical yearbooks are consulted,The Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program benefit of ten typical counties in Southern China is evaluated according to the combination evaluation method from the static,dynamic angle and comprehensive, detailed angle. Combination evaluation scores and ranking of ten typical counties are obtained.The benefit development and change trend of ten typical counties in recent five years are analyzed.Empirical research is helpful to the correct evaluation of the current situation and potential with the typical counties, to understand the development trend of the counties,to perfect policy, to promote mutually and develop commonly between counties,to realize the healthy development of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program.Fourthly,on the basis of evaluation research, suggestions are put forward to improve the benefit of the Conversion of Cropland to Forest Program,to promote the ecological, economic and social harmonious development of the area.更多还原