【作者】 纪丽君；

【导师】 林柏梁；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 摘要：铁路运输在资源节约、环境保护、低成本和大运量等方面较其它运输方式有着无可比拟的优势,在促进经济发展和社会进步的过程中发挥着重要作用。分析和研究铁路网运能供需适应性的基本理论、方法及其应用,对于把握铁路货物运输业与经济发展的适应程度,找出铁路网建设与发展过程中存在的问题与不足,明确发展思路、发展目标和建设重点,促进铁路运输与经济的协调发展,实现铁路运输现代化和可持续发展等具有十分重要的意义。鉴于此,本文研究铁路网货物运输能力供给与运输需求间适应性的理论与适应性的定量化判断方法,对揭示运输供需间的数量关系、正确处理两者在经济发展中存在的适应性矛盾、指导路网规划和改善运营组织方案具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。论文研究了铁路网货运能力与运输需求的特点及其关系,首次对铁路网货运能力供给与运输需求间的适应性进行了系统的理论研究。分析了铁路网运能供需适应性的内涵、供需适应性分析的具体框架、供需优化匹配的铁路网流量分配方法、铁路网最大承载量估算方法以及基于优化匹配结果和路网最大承载量的供需适应性判定方法。主要研究工作和创新点包括：(1)在分析铁路网货物运输能力供给与运输需求基本理论的基础上,结合我国铁路实际货运能力供需问关系的特点,明确给出了铁路网货运能力供需适应性内涵,提出供需适应是运输需求能够得到满足、运输能力能够得到充分利用、运输能力具备应变性三者的综合体现,完善了铁路运能供需适应性的概念。基于静态与动态适应、短期与长期适应、局部与整体适应的原则,根据铁路网货运能力供需适应性应当体现综合、多维度的特点,首次建立了包含供需总量适应、供需结构适应、供需服务质量适应、运能供给适应需求变化四个要素层面的铁路网运能供需适应性分析框架,并结合生产实践提炼了相应的适应性分析指标,提出了较为系统的铁路网运能供需适应性分析基础框架。(2)研究了基于铁路网流量模拟分配的货运能力供需总量适应性和供需服务质量适应性的分析和指标量化计算方法。利用运输需求满足率和路网平均能力利用率两项指标衡量运能供需总量的适应性,兼顾了运能供给方和需求方的利益满足。利用供需服务质量、路网拥挤度和运输平均绕道率来衡量运能供需服务质量的适应性。在指标量化计算方面,提出通过路网流量分配模拟来获取指标计算参数的方法。鉴于空车流是运输需求派生出来的隐性需求,且占用路网能力影响运能供需适应状态,所以本文紧紧抓住重车流与空车流之间的关联性,将提出的基于路网的改进空车分配模型与基于多商品流的铁路网货流分配模型融合,构建了考虑不可行流的铁路网重空流一体化分配模型。模型考虑同股车流不可拆分约束,模型中的空车供需数量由车站到发的可行重车流数量动态产生,使运输需求的模拟分配更加符合实际。模型变量的科学设定方式有利于各运输车流径路的搜索和输出,大大简化了径路推导的工作量。通过运输需求在路网上的模拟分配优化方案获得了用于分析运能供需适应性的各项重要数据,如路网各路段能力负荷分布、可行车流量、运输需求走行径路及里程等相关数据。该模型的构建为适应性的定量分析提供了技术方法支持。(3)研究了铁路网供需结构适应性和运输能力灵活性的分析及量化衡量方法,将其转化为一种特殊的网络运输能力计算问题,建立了一定需求结构下的考虑空车流的铁路网车流径路优化与运输能力计算一体化模型。模型遵循运输费用合理、重空车流一体化、运输需求结构波动范围合理、车流不可拆分等原则,实现了路网运输能力计算与路网流量分配的协同优化,且保证空车流随重车流的增长而动态变化,有效避免了过高或过低估算路网能力。通过优化结果不仅可以获得铁路网运输能力,还可得到各运输需求方向上服务线路的运输能力,从而为供需结构适应性和运输能力灵活性的评价指标计算提供数据支持。(4)建立了铁路网货运能力供需适应性分析与评价体系,采用AHP-灰色模糊评价理论对路网货运能力供给与运输需求适应性等级进行了较为客观的综合评定。结合区域路网货运能力供给与运输需求模拟数据进行了路网流量优化分配和运输能力优化计算,并依据优化结果对研究路网的供需适应性进行了综合评定分析,并给出了提高路网运能供需适应性的路网改扩建及需求引导策略。论文关于铁路网货运能力供需适应性理论的研究从宏观和微观层面有效揭示了路网货运能力供需适应性状态,可以诊断出供需适应不良的症结所在。该理论研究对于路网运能供需适应状态判定、规划方案比选、指导完善铁路网布局和运能配置、供需平衡引导措施制定等方面具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 ABSTRACT:Railway transportation which has obvious advantage in resource saving, environment protection and reducing cost plays an important part in the development of economy and society. In the face of this situation, effective measures to coordinate the capacity supply and demand are needed. The study on the adaptability between railway network capacity supply and traffic demand requirement has a positive and significant influence on the improvement of railway transportation management theory and would provide useful information on network planning.The law and theory of railway network capacity supply and demand are studied, and a systemic theoretical framework and an analysis method from macroscopic view is put forward for the first time, including the notation of network capacity and traffic demand, the framework of adaptability analyze, the optimize assignment of car flow, the estimation method of the maximum amount of freight the network can accommodate and the evaluation method of railway network capacity adaptability based on the models explored. The main contents and related conclusions are listed as follows:(1) The academic definition of supply and demand adaptability of railway network capacity is consummated by analyzing the notation of network capacity and traffic demand, which enrich the theory of railway network capacity utilization. According to the principles of static&dynamic, short&long term and microcosmic¯ocosmic analysis, a more complete railway network capacity adaptability study framework including supply and demand total amount adaptability, distribute structure adaptability, service quality adaptability and capacity flexibility is put forward. And indexes are proposed to measure the adaptability.(2) The analysis and evaluation method of supply and demand total amount adaptability and service quality adaptability, and especially emphasis is put on the study of railway car flow assignment method. Since the amount and distribution of empty car flows, which occupy the network capacity as well, lies on the freight flow distribution. A railway freight and empty car flow assignment model is built which combines the advantages of the multi-commodity freight flow assignment model and empty car flow assignment model proposed in this paper. Due to the character of railway transportation management, the constraint that the fright transportation between the same OD pair would choose only one path is included into the model to make the result more realistic. With this model, the composing arcs of the optimized transport path can be gained easily. With the optimize result, such as the volume and capacity utilization rate of arcs, the amount of freight can be transported within the capacity limit, the path offered and transport distance of each OD, so the adaptability indexes can be computed.(3) The analysis and evaluation method of supply and demand distribute structure adaptability and capacity flexibility is presented. A railway network capacity model under is built to estimate the maximum output of the network. Because the model follows the reasonable transport cost, freight and empty car flow relationship, the demand increase bound and one OD one path principles, so it can estimate the network capacity more effectively. The optimizing result not only shows the capacity of the network, but also shows the maximum capacity of each origin and destination. And these data are the basic parameters to calculate the distribute structure adaptability and capacity flexibility.(4) Since the adaptability evaluation system of railway network capacity supply and demand consists of four aspects and many indexes, AHP-grey fuzzy evaluation method is used to estimate the adaptability. Finally, a numerical example is given to prove the rationality and validity of the models and the evaluate method proposed.Above all, With the theoretic adaptability analysis framework and evaluation method presented in this paper, not only the status of the railway network transport capacity supply and demand adaptability can be evaluated from the macroscopic and microscopic view, but also the problems existed can be find out. And this would provide important reference for reasonable network planning strategies and decision making.更多还原