【作者】 李晓景；

【导师】 江希钿；

【作者基本信息】 福建农林大学 ， 森林经理学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本文以福建省闽北天然阔叶林为研究对象,应用福建省闽北地区复测的森林资源连续清查的150块固定样地数据,69块临时样地数据,1823株样木的现场造材数据,以及128株生物量样木数据,以统计分析SPSS软件为运算平台,运用测树学、森林经理学、森林资源资产评估等学科的理论和技术方法,分析了闽北天然阔叶林的材种结构规律,构建了材种出材率模型、林分生长预估模型、立木生物量估测模型、灌木、草本生物量模型,以及基于间隔期的生长收获动态预估模型,并探讨了该模型在天然阔叶林林木资产评估的应用,分析了不同情况下林木资产评估值的变化规律。研究结果对闽北地区森林资源动态监测、经营管理、资产评估和以及碳储量测算等有着重要的理论意义和实际应用价值,主要结果如下：(1)应用现场造材资料分析径阶材种结构规律,在此基础上选择合适方程建立材种出率模型并编制了二元径阶材种出材率表。为方便生产应用,在建立了树高曲线模型后,通过二元材种出材率表导出了一元材种出材率表。利用相关数据分析林分材种结构规律,以林分平均胸径和平均高为辅助变量采用联合估计法解决各材种出材率模型不兼容问题,并利用免疫进化算法求算模型参数,研制了林分材种出材率模型。经检验,模型精度较高,在林业生产上有实用价值。探讨了应用削度方程结合威布尔分布函数、相对树高曲线模型及其他一些辅助方程编制林分材种出材率表的技术方法。(2)利用样地资料建立闽北天然阔叶林林分生长模型并提出预估方法。考虑到立地质量的差异会影响模型的拟合结果,把立地质量分为四个地位等级。将地位等级设为哑变量,建立了地位级指数模型。建立的蓄积量,断面积、平均胸径、平均高等因子的全林分模型以及推导出的闽北天然阔叶林林分自然稀疏模型,可以实现对天然阔叶林小班森林资源数据进行连续预估和动态更新。(3)采用联合估计法解决生物量各分量模型不兼容问题并利用免疫进化算法求解模型参数,建立了闽北天然阔叶林的立木生物量估测模型以及林下灌、草生物量模型,并编制了阔叶林的立木生物量表。(4)提出了用预估间隔期代替林分年龄来建立天然异龄林生长模型的技术。考虑到不同立地质量会影响模型的拟合效果,引入含有立地质量的变量为哑变量,建立起以间隔期为主要辅助因子的林分生长收获动态模型,并利用蚁群算法估计模型参数,为天然异龄林生长收获预估模型的研制提供了新技术途径。用预估间隔期代替林分年龄来建立天然异龄林生长模型,为天然阔叶林资产评估择伐收益法的应用提供了技术保障。在此基础上,探讨了天然阔叶林资产评估技术,分析了择伐强度和利率的变化对林木资产评估值的影响,为提高森林资源资产评估,尤其是天然异龄林资产评估的准确性提供了理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper taked the natural broad-leaved forest in North-Fujian as the research object, with the data of provincial forest resource inventory by the150fixed sample plots,1823sample trees made materials data,69sample plots and128biomass sample trees, using the statistical software SPSS operation platform, by the theory and technology method of forest mensuration, forest management, forest resource asset evaluation method etc., the paper analysised the law of the timber assortment structure, the merchantable volume model, the whole stand growth-yield models, biomass estimation model, shrub and herbal biomass model, also including the growth-yield model with the interval.Meanwhile, the paper also analyzed the application of assets evalution of the natural broad-leaved forest and discussed the change of the asset assessment under the different circumstances. It had the important practical value on dynamic monitoring of forest resources, management, assets evaluation and the calculation of carbon reserves measures in the north Fujian province. The main research content and summary are as follows:(1) Using the sample timbers on the spot which analysed the law of diameter grade timber assortment structure, On this basis, the paper chose the proper equation which builded the volume ratio model of timber assortment and compiled the two dimension merchantable volume yielding volume rate tables. In order to facilitate the production and application, after that the tree height curve model was been established, the one dimension merchantable volume yielding volume rate tables had been exported by the two dimension merchantable volume yielding volume rate tables.Analysing the plant timber assortment structure rules by the related data, the paper taked the stand average diameter and average height as the auxiliary variables, and employed the joint estimation method which used to solve the volume model incompatible.Meanwhile, the stand of volume ratio model was constructed by using the immune evolutionanry algorithm to calculate the model parameter.Through tested, the volume ratio model had been higher precion and had practical value in forestry production.The paper discussed technical method for fomating the stand of volume ratio table by application of the tape equation, Weibull distubition function, the relative tree height curve model, and some other auxiliary equation.(2)Using the sample data, the stand growth model was been established and then the forecast method was put forwarded. Considering the difffrenence of site class which would be effected the result, the research putted the site classes dividing into four grades. Taked the rank as the dummy variable, the site class index model was conctructed. The whole stand model of the Volume model, the basal area model, the average breast height-diameter and the average height etc. including the natural sparse model which was inferred could be brought about continuous prediction and dynamic updating for natural broad-leaved forest resources.(3)Using the joint estimation to solve the problem that the biomass models of each compoents was not compatiable, the immune evolutionanry algorithm had been used for the model parameters.the model estimation of tree biomass, the understory shrubs, herbaceous biomass models in North-Fujian province were constructed and the tree biomass table were drew up.(4) The technology building natural uneven-aged forest growth model by using the prediction interval instead of the stand age were established. Considering the difffrenence of the site class that would be effected the result, the stand growth and yield model taken the interval as the main auxiliary factor were established throught incorporating the dummy variable including the site quality variable, and to estimate the model parameters by the ant colony algorithm, what provided a new technical approach for formatting the natural uneven aged forest growth and yield prediction model.It offered technical support to establish the model of natural uneven age forest by the prediction interval instead of stand age for application of natural broad-leaved forest assets evaluation selection cutting income method.On the basis, the assessment technique for the assets of natural broad-leaved forest were be discussed, and also analyzed the impact for the forest assets valuation by the change of selective cutting intensity and the rate, which can be improved the asset assessment for forest resources, especially provided the theoretical basis for the accuracy of natural uneven aged forest asset assessment.更多还原