【作者】 韩雪；

【导师】 孙才志；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁师范大学 ， 自然地理学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 粮食安全和水安全一直是关系国计民生的重大问题,虚拟水概念的提出为解决区域水资源安全与粮食安全提供了新思路。但区域间持续的虚拟水贸易已对区域生态环境和经济发展产生了不良影响,为解决这些问题,需要对虚拟水流动格局的形成机理与维持机制进行深入系统的分析,以期为合理应用虚拟水贸易解决我国水资源危机和粮食安全危机提供科学指导。本文以我国主要农产品(稻谷、小麦、玉米)的虚拟水流动格局为研究对象,主要以比较优势理论、自然资源重建理论、资源流动理论和资源替代理论等为理论基础,按照格局、结构、过程和机理的地理学研究思路,借鉴生态学、经济学、水文学等学科,主要以数学模型分析、解释模型分析和GIS空间分析等定量研究方法为主,以及定性和定量相结合、理论分析与实证研究相结合的研究手段,对我国主要农产品虚拟水流动格局及其形成机理、稳定性和维持机制展开系统研究。主要研究内容为：构建我国主要农产品虚拟水流量关系矩阵,并对其进行成因分析。本部分内容为全文的研究基础。首先,本文将我国31个省市自治区(不含港、澳、台)划分为八大区域：东北(内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江)、华北(北京、天津、山西)、黄淮海(河北、河南、山东、安徽)、西北(陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆)、东南(上海、浙江、福建)、长江中下游(江苏、江西、湖北、湖南)、华南(广东、广西、海南)和西南(四川、贵州、云南、西藏)。在此基础上构建了我国主要农产品虚拟水流动格局矩阵,并估算了虚拟水进、出口量,结果表明：我国粮食对外贸易中虚拟水净调入量逐年增加,这主要是受大豆的影响。1999-2010年12年间我国区际间虚拟水流向主要是从北方流向南方地区,2007年输出量达到最大值313.3×108m3,最小值在2003年为172.4×108m3；在八大区域中,东北、黄淮海、长江中下游地区为我国虚拟水净调出区,黄淮海地区调出量增幅最大,其他五大区域为虚拟水净调入区,其中华南和东南为主要的净流入区。通过对虚拟水流动格局的分析显示：虚拟水贸易理论在我国并不完全适用,为保障国家粮食安全、水资源安全与政治安全,应立足本国粮食的自给自足,采取有效的措施保障现有的虚拟水流动格局。运用改进的空间偏离-份额模型分析我国主要农产品虚拟水总量变化的时空演变特征。为探究虚拟水流动格局的形成机理,本文构建基于国家分量、区域结构分量、邻区空间结构分量、区域空问效应分量和邻区效应分量的空间偏离-份额模型,对1999-2010年间我国各地区主要农产品虚拟水总量变化进行分解分析,结果表明：区域主要农产品虚拟水含量的增减不但与本区域农业内部产业结构和农业竞争力优势有关,还与邻区的农业内部产业结构和农业竞争力优势有关；并进一步划分了各地区主要农产品虚拟水含量的变化类型；采用最小方差法将中国31个行政区确定为五种影响类型：单因素主导型、双因素主导型、三因素主导型、四因素主导型和五因素主导型。由此可以看出虚拟水含量的规模、结构和效应都在影响着虚拟水的流动格局,但并不是影响虚拟水流动的唯一因素,虚拟水流动格局的形成应是多因素的综合作用结果。运用PLS模型定量化研究我国虚拟水流动格局形成机理。在虚拟水流动格局和虚拟水量时空演变的研究基础上,为更加准确的研究虚拟水流动格局的形成机理,采用PLS模型对其进行定量化研究,从人口、农业资源、农业生态环境、经济、科技和文化、交通及虚拟水增量等七个方面对我国主要农产品虚拟水流动格局的形成机理进行分析,研究结果表明：人口通过农业资源影响虚拟水增量进而影响虚拟水的流动；经济主要是通过交通及技术和文化影响虚拟水的流动；虚拟水流动会反作用于农业生态环境。由此进一步证明,虚拟水流动格局的形成是受多因素共同作用的结果。引入生态网络安全概念构建虚拟水流动格局网络稳定性模型并分析其可持续性。虚拟水流动格局的形成是受国家政策等多因素共同作用的结果,因此,在未来一段时间内虚拟水流动格局不会有大的变化,为保证虚拟水流动格局的稳定性,引入生态网络安全系统相关概念,构建虚拟水流动格局网络稳定性模型,结果表明：1999年-2010年间,虚拟水流动格局网络系统的信道数目减少,并且信道容量在逐年降低；系统聚合度和系统冗余度亦呈波动降低趋势；系统网络使用率呈现降低趋势；系统网络空闲率呈增加趋势；网络系统指标表明我国区际间主要农产品虚拟水流动形成的网络系统的稳定性逐年降低。最后,从生态网络安全角度分析虚拟水战略在我国的适用性,提出南水北调、生态补偿等有效措施会保证虚拟水流动格局的稳定性。构建基于虚拟水流动格局的区际间农业生态补偿横向转移支付模型,初步解决了农业生态补偿标准模糊和补偿主客体不明确的问题。农业生态补偿研究旨在解决农业发展与生态环境的可持续性问题。通过借鉴国内外研究成果,提出了农业生态补偿机制框架。为解决补偿标准模糊和补偿主客体不明确的问题,引入虚拟水理论,将虚拟水作为农业生态补偿的载体,构建了区际间农业生态补偿横向转移支付模型,并形成了基于虚拟水流动格局的农业生态补偿思路,以全国为例,得出以下结论：八大区域中东南地区和华南地区仅是补偿主体,而其他区域既是补偿主体又是补偿客体；并计算出了相应的补偿金额。研究虚拟水与水资源承载力的关系。引入虚拟水作为评价华北地区水资源承载力的评价指标,探讨虚拟水战略的适用性及与水资源承载力的关系。以水资源总量、总供水量、年降水量等13个因子作为水资源承载力评价的指标,运用主成分分析法对华北地区的水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果表明：影响水资源承载力的驱动因子主要为经济、人口和水资源及虚拟水净流量；华北地区水资源承载力处于波动上升的趋势;虚拟水是影响水资源承载力的重要因子,但虚拟水的引入不会改变水资源承载力的总体变化趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food security and water security are major issues which have been the relationship between the national economy and the people’s livelihood, the proposed virtual water concept provides a new approach to solve regional water security and food security. Continuing interregional virtual water trade has had a negative impact on the regional ecological environment and economic development, to solve these problems; it needs to deeply analyze the formation mechanism of the virtual water flow pattern and maintenance mechanism, which provides a scientific guidance for solving water crisis and food security crisis in China.In this paper, in accordance with the pattern, structure, process and mechanism of geography research ideas, learning from the disciplines of ecology, economics, hydrology, with the method of mathematical model analysis, the interpretation model analysis and GIS spatial analysis, as well as a combination of qualitative and quantitative, theoretical analysis and empirical research, virtual water flow patterns and their formation mechanism, system stability and maintenance mechanisms are deeply researched, which studied China’s major agricultural products (rice, wheat, corn), based on the theory of comparative advantage, natural resource reconstruction theory, resource flow theory and resource alternative theories, The matrix of the major crops virtual water flow is constructed and its causes are analyzed. The content of this section is the research foundation for the full text. First, China’s31provinces, cities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) is divided into eight regions:Northeast (Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi), the Huang-Huai-Hai (Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui), Northwest (Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang), Southeast (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian), the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan), South China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan) and southwest (Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet). Virtual water flow pattern of China’s major agricultural matrix is constructed on this basis, and the virtual water import and export volume are estimated, the results showed that: the virtual water net transferred amount increases every year in China’s grain foreign trade, which is mainly influenced by the soybean. From1999to2010, the inter-district virtual water in China flows to the south from the north in the12years, the2007output reached the maximum313.3×108m3in2007and the minimum172.4×108m3in2003. In the eight regions, the net output area of virtual water is the Northeast and Huang-huaihai and the Yangtze River, the other five areas is the net input area, in which the South and Southeast are the main net input areas.By analysis of the virtual water flow pattern, it shows that virtual water trade theory in our country is not entirely applicable, for the protection of national food security, water security and political security, it should be based on national food self-sufficiency, and existing virtual water flow pattern is protected by taking effective measures.The temporal and spatial variations of virtual water changes in the total of China’s major crops products is analyzed by the improved spatial shift-share model. For exploring the virtual water flow pattern formation mechanism, the space shift-share model is established based on the national component, the regional structural component, the adjacent areas space structure component, the regional spatial effect component and the adjacent areas effect component, The virtual water changes in the total of crops (rice, wheat, and corn) is decomposed and analyzed from1999to2010in various areas of our country, the results show that:the increase or decrease of virtual water content of the main crops are not only related to the internal structure of the regional agricultural and agriculture competitive advantage, but also the internal structure of the adjacent areas of agriculture and agricultural competitiveness advantages. The type of change of virtual water content of the main crops products in all regions is further divided; the five impact types are identified by Minimum variance method in31administrative districts:dominant type of single factor, two factors, three factors, four factors and five factors. It can be seen that the size, structure and effect of the virtual water content affects the virtual water flow pattern, but not the only factor, the formation of the virtual water flow pattern is the result of the combined effects of multiple factors.The virtual water flow pattern formation mechanism is quantitatively studied by PLS model. By using the PLS model, the formation mechanism of the virtual water flow pattern of main crops products in China is analyzed by the seven aspects of population, crops resources, crops ecological environment, economy, technology and culture, traffic and virtual water increment, results show that:population affects the virtual water increment through crops resources, in turn, affects the virtual water flow; Economy mainly affects virtual water flow through transport and technology and cultural; Virtual water flow will react on crops ecological environment. Finally, the PLS models is adopted in this paper to analyze the relationship between the virtual water flows and it’s influencing factors. This paper objectively reveals the impact of the other factors except the factor of water resources on virtual water flow pattern. The research conclusion is available for guiding the rationality of the virtual water flow pattern, the trends and adjustment of future mobile, the implementation of the national subsidy policy, and the protection of the crops ecological environment. It can provide scientific basis and the policy implications for ensuring food security and water security, and so on, and it can provide references for the virtual water theory in the practical application in our country. Thus, it is further proved that the formation of the virtual water flow pattern is the result of joint action by multiple factors.The concept of ecological network security is introduced, and the stability of the network model of virtual water flow pattern is built and its sustainability analyzed. The formation of virtual water flow pattern is the result of joint action by national policy factors; therefore, in the next period of time, there will be no major changes to the virtual water flow pattern. For analyzing the stability of the network system of virtual water flow pattern, the concept of the ecological network security system is introduced, and the model of the network system stability is build, results show that:Between1999and2010, the number of the channel of the network system of virtual water flow pattern was in decline, and the channel capacity reduced in the year; the polymerization degree and the redundancy of the system fluctuating decreased; the usage rate reduced; the idleness increased; the network system indicators show that the stability of the network system of virtual water formed by the main crops in China’s inter-district flows down year by year. So, five response measures are put forward that include establishing the early warning system of food security, enhancing the food production, circulation and reserve capacity, implementing the internationalization strategy of food security, making virtue water strategy according to Chinese situation, strengthening agro-ecological protection and constructing agricultural ecological compensation mechanism. The inter-district agro-ecological compensation horizontal transfer payment model is built based on the virtual water flow pattern. It is initially solved that the agro-ecological compensation standard is vague and the compensation subject and object is unclear. The study of the agricultural ecological compensation aims at solving the agricultural development and ecological environment sustainability issues. Through the study achievements at home and abroad, the framework of the agricultural ecological compensation mechanism is put forward. To solve the problems about the uncertainty of the compensation standard as well as the compensation subject and object, the virtual water theory is introduced. The virtual water is taken as the carrier of agricultural ecological compensation; the agricultural ecological compensation ideas are formed based on the virtual water flow pattern. To take the whole nation as an example, the following conclusions can be obtained:the southeast area and the Southern China area are the only subject of compensation among the eight regions, while the other area is both the compensation subject and the compensation object; and the corresponding compensation amount is calculated.Study the relationship between virtual water and water resources bearing capacity. This paper introduces the virtual water as evaluation index of the water resources carrying capacity, and discusses the applicability of the virtual water strategy and the relationship between it and the water resources carrying capacity. Using the total water resources, total supply, such as13factors as the evaluation index of the water resources carrying capacity, the principal component analysis is used to comprehensive evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of north China. The results showed that the main driving factors of effecting water resources carrying capacity is economy, population, the resources of water and the virtual water flow net; the water resources carrying capacity is in the upward trend in North China; the Virtual water is an important factor of affecting the water resources carrying capacity, but the introduction of virtual water will not change the overall changes trend of water resources carrying capacity.更多还原