【作者】 黄小勤；

【导师】 陈孔立；

【作者基本信息】 厦门大学 ， 政治学理论， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 2008年5月以来,两岸关系进入和平发展的新阶段,但民进党仍是影响两岸关系和平发展的一大变数。民进党未来是否调整乃至放弃其“台独”主张,关系到两岸同胞的福祉,也攸关两岸关系和平发展能否顺利地进一步巩固深化。本论文的研究目的是从政治系统论的视角描述2008年以来民进党大陆政策的输入、转换与输出三个主要环节,厘清影响其政策产出的各项因素,并对其未来走向作出比较合理的预估。2008年以前民进党大陆政策经历了升级化、务实化、激进化三个发展阶段,在政策演变过程中,“台独”已成为民进党的“神主牌”,成为该党的意识形态。随着形势的发展,民进党的“台独”意识形态越来越成为其调整大陆政策的障碍。从系统输入端来看,可以分为国际、两岸、台湾内部三个层面,从要求和支持两个角度进行考察。从要求的视角来分析,三个层次因素的共同要求是“稳定”,要求民进党大陆政策不要造成台海局势紧张,保持两岸的稳定。从支持的视角来分析,美国的支持取决于哪个政党的政策更符合其利益；大陆对民进党是“否定的支持”；台湾内部对民进党表示“高度的、肯定的”支持群体在减少。从系统转换端来看,分为结构机制和文化机制两个方面进行考察。从结构机制来看,民进党的正式结构机制只起着政策合法化的作用,真正扮演利益整合作用的是非正式结构机制,即民进党内的派系。派系的积极意义是使民进党路线保持中间,党内权力不过于集中；消极意义则是使决策易陷入僵局,而且应对能力迟缓。从文化机制来看,民进党政治文化的特点是：认知取向是走向狭隘的“台湾意识”；情感取向是悲情意识、亲美媚日；评价取向是民粹主义。这种政治文化对大陆政策的影响是曲解国际层面的输入、敌化两岸层面的输入、异化台湾内部的输入。从系统输出端来看,分为权威性陈述和权威性执行两个层面进行考察。其权威性陈述从认同层面看,仍是坚持“台独”；从具体政策层面看,仅有一些策略性的变化。其权威性执行遵循反对党的活动规律,可以分为四种：街头运动、发起“公投”、阻挠“立法院”议事、投入“选举”。其政策特点是：“台独”主张隐蔽化、政策具有滞后性、个人色彩浓厚。通过研究,本论文认为民进党大陆政策的输入与输出之间存在巨大落差。输入端是要求民进党改变其大陆政策,而输出端的结果是民进党并没有对其政策进行本质性的调整。出现落差的主要原因是转换环节的结构机制和文化机制。国际、两岸、台湾内部三个层面的输入在民进党政治文化的影响下,都与其原始输入要求有很大的变化。再加上结构层面的党内派系的负面作用,使得大陆政策的调整在操作上更不可行。其未来走向是“短空长多”,即基于其政策演变的内在逻辑性和内在条件的不满足,其政策短期内难有实质性调整；但基于两岸关系和政党发展两大外在趋势,从长远来看民进党调整乃至放弃“台独”主张是大势所趋。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since May2008, Cross-Strait relations have entered a new stage of peaceful development, but Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is still a significant variable which affects the peaceful development of Cross-Strait relations. Whether DPP adjusts or even gives up its advocacy of "Taiwan independence", is not only closely related to the well-being of compatriots on both sides, but also relevant to further consolidation and deepening of "Cross-Strait peaceful development". The framework of this dissertation adopts the theory of political system of David Easton. The purpose of this dissertation is to give a comprehensive description of the Mainland Policies of DPP since2008, from three aspects of inputs, conversions and outputs; to clarify the factors that affect the policy outcomes; and to make a reasonable prediction of its future trend.Before the year of2008, the Mainland policies of DPP have gone through three stages of development, with distinguishing characteristics of upgrade, pragmatic, and radical. During the course of evolution, the advocacy of "Taiwan independence" has become the ideology of DPP, which proves to be an increasing obstacle to adjustment of its Mainland policies.This research explores two basic kinds of inputs:demands and supports, which can be classified into three levels of analysis, which are international, Cross-Strait, and Taiwan’s internal level. From the perspective of demands, the common requirement of three levels of factors is "stable", which means that the Mainland policies of DPP should not create tension in the Taiwan Strait, and should maintain the stability of the Cross-Strait. From the perspective of supports, the support of the United States depends on which party’s policies are more consistent with its national interests; the support of China’s mainland belongs to the category of "negative support"; supporters who express "high-level and affirmative" support for DPP in Taiwan are in the decline.This research explores two basic mechanisms of conversions:structural mechanism and cultural mechanism. From the perspective of structural mechanism, the formal structure of DPP only plays the role of policy legalization. It’s the informal structure of DPP that plays the role of interest aggregation, and the informal structure is the factions of DPP. The positive influences of factions are keeping the route of DPP in the middle, and the power will not be too concentrated. The negative influences of factions are that the policy-making tends to reach a deadlock, and the whole party is slow to respond to the environment. From the perspective of cultural mechanism, the characteristic of cognitive orientation of DPP is the narrowness of "Taiwan consciousness"; the characteristic of affective orientation of DPP is the consciousness of sad feeling to China’s mainland, pro-US and pro-Japan; the characteristic of evaluational orientation is populism. The influences of political culture of DPP on its Mainland policies are the distortion of the inputs at the international, Cross-Strait, and Taiwan internal level.This research explores two basic kinds of outputs:authoritative decisions and authoritative implementing actions. From the perspective of authoritative decisions, DPP still insists on its advocacy of "Taiwan Independence", but has made some tactical changes. From the perspective of authoritative implementing actions, its activities follow the laws of the opposition parties, and can be divided into four categories:street movement, initiation of "referendum", obstruction of the proceedings of "Legislative Yuan", and preparation for elections. The characteristics of Mainland policies of DPP at the present stage are the concealment of the advocacy of "Taiwan Independence", the time lag of policies, and the strong personal style.Through research, this dissertation argues that there is a huge gap between the inputs and outputs of the Mainland policies of DPP. The inputs require DPP to make fundamental change to its Mainland policies, yet the outputs reveal that the essence of its policies remains unchanged. The main cause of the gap lies in structural mechanism and cultural mechanism. Under the influence of political culture of DPP, the original inputs are largely distorted as they flow through the channels of the conversion process. Coupled with the negative effects of the factions of the structural level, the adjustments of Mainland policies of DPP is not feasible. Based on the inherent logic of the evolution of its policies and the fact that internal conditions are not satisfied, there is a faint possibility that Mainland policies of DPP might have fundamental changes in the near future. Yet based on two external trends which are the trend of Cross-Strait relations and the trend of the development of political parties, it is a general trend that DPP will adjust or even give up its advocacy of "Taiwan Independence" in the long run.更多还原