【作者】 张红波；

【导师】 潘敏；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 香港人民币离岸市场的发展,初期是市场自发启动,我国中央政府对香港特别行政区的人民币业务的政策支持也主要是为了支持个人居民跨境流动消费所需,如内地居民在香港地区使用人民币购物。但是,2008年金融危机以来,对于以美元为基础的国际货币体系有较多的批评,我国政府确立了“推进人民币国际化,加快东亚区域货币合作和倡导实施国际货币体系改革”的战略目标,而香港人民币离岸市场是人民币国际化的重要内容和支撑,香港人民币离岸市场取得了迅速的发展,目前已经成为境外最大的人民币离岸中心,初步建立了较完整的离岸市场体系,并为境外人民币业务提供重要的支付结算、投资支持。但在此过程中,也产生了跨境套利、影响中国内地货币政策等问题,进一步影响到我国中央政府对于人民币国际化政策的决策。而香港人民币离岸市场属于政策推动型的离岸市场,其发展受到我国中央政府政策的直接影响,因此这些问题及争议必须影响香港人民币离岸市场的未来发展。本文对于香港人民币离岸市场的构成、发展背景、发展过程、目前成果、当前的主要问题和影响进行了比较全面的论述和分析,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。香港人民币离岸市场的发展具有一定优势。从现有对于离岸市场发展的研究成果来看,一般认为地理位置、经济水平、法律体系、政治稳定、政府政策支持等因素影响离岸市场的发展。现有研究同时认为香港具备发展人民币离岸市场的条件,并且其发展对于内地的影响包括增加热钱进入内地渠道、影响内地利率和汇率、影响内地货币供应量、影响香港金融市场稳定等方面,但是整体来看风险是可控的。本文在这些研究的基础上,分析了香港人民币离岸市场发展的背景及优势,认为香港具有完善的金融制度和监管,金融市场发达,并已经有美元等离岸市场的经验。进一步分析了我国中央政府对于人民币国际化的政策发展过程,在谨慎推进的同时对于香港有较多的倾斜支持。但是我国中央政府内部各部门之间对于人民币国际化的政策取向不同,也扩大了套利问题的争议,影响了人民币国际化和香港人民币离岸市场的未来发展方向和速度。香港人民币离岸市场已经初步建立了完整的离岸市场体系,具备了一定的市场深度,本文从清算体系、投资市场、外汇市场三个方面进行了深入分析。首先,在支付结算体系方面,已经基本建成覆盖全球主要经济体的人民币清算网络,能够为全球人民币离岸之间、离岸和在岸之间提供支付结算服务。其次,投资市场已经具备一定的规模,发债主体多元化。第三,建立了两个外汇市场：一是CNY汇率市场,由具备跨境贸易背景的企业参与；第二个是完全自由的CNH汇率市场,由香港和全球的市场参与者自由竞价,形成香港市场化的人民币汇率,并且没有任何交易背景限制。两个市场发展已经具备一定规模,可以向全球人民币投资者提供即期、远期、NDF、IRS等全面的人民币外汇及衍生品,在内地人民币不可自由兑换的情况下,为境外人民币市场参与者提供了支持。香港人民币离岸市场发展当前遇到的最大问题是离岸市场和在岸市场之间的跨境套利,并引起社会舆论和我国中央政府内部的争议,影响了离岸市场的发展进程。本文分析了人民币跨境套利的三种模式及其影响,其正面影响一是迅速推动人民币跨境贸易结算的发展；二是显著增加了香港市场贸易融资的规模,加速了香港离岸人民币市场的发展。其负面影响一是热钱借道跨境贸易人民币结算流入内地,影响内地货币供应量和宏观调控效果；二是离岸市场影响在岸市场人民币汇率。从实际结果来看,首先,香港人民币离岸市场的规模仍很有限,热钱对内地货币供应量和宏观调控的影响非常小；其次,通过对香港人民币离岸市场NDF汇率、内地远期市场汇率和人民币即期汇率三组时间序列的分析,证明人民币在岸即期汇率与离岸NDF各期限品种的汇率存在明显的协整关系,并且在岸市场汇率更具信息优势,对离岸市场存在影响,因此现阶段套利行为对在岸市场汇率的影响很小。综合来看,套利行为的负面影响有限,而对于推进香港人民币离岸市场建设和人民币国际化有较大帮助。综合以上分析,提出相关政策建议：首先,我国政府可以发挥套利行为的积极作用加速人民币国际化和香港人民币离岸市场的发展；其次,在香港人民币债券、股票、基金等投资市场的发展过程中,来自于内地的市场参与者起到重要作用,而香港作为自由经济体采取投资者风险自负的市场原则,建议我国中央政府可以进一步放松对于内地企业到香港进行人民币IPO、发行人民币债券的各类政策限制,支持香港投资市场规模快速扩大；第三,在香港人民币离岸市场的发展过程充分发挥了市场力量的作用,我国中央政府可以借鉴香港人民币离岸市场的市场机制,推进内地债券市场的市场化、远期外汇市场建设,并实现在岸市场和离岸市场的良性循环发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 . The early development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market was started by the market behavior spontaneously. The central government’s policy was mainly designed to meet the needs of individual residents’cross-border RMB consumption flow, such as mainland residents like shopping using RMB in Hong Kong. But since the financial crisis in2008, the dollar-based international monetary system has been criticized more than ever. Based on this, the Chinese government has established a strategic objective that is "to promote RMB internationalization, to speed up the East Asia regional monetary cooperation and to accelerate the implementation of the international monetary system reform. Hong Kong’s RMB offshore market is an important content of RMB internationalization. Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market which achieved rapid development now has become the largest overseas offshore RMB center. A complete offshore market system was established there and it provided important payment and settlement and investment support for the offshore RMB business. However, in this process, we also found some problems which affected the central government’s decision-making in RMB internationalization policy, such as arbitrage, weakening the influence mainland monetary policy. Hong Kong’s offshore market belongs to a policy-driven offshore market whose development is certainly influenced by the central government policies. Therefore, these disputes definitely influence the future development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market. In this paper, the author has carried on a series of comprehensive discussion on Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market including composition, background, process, achievement and current major issues. Consequently, there are some policy recommendations on this basis.The development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market has its own advantages. Based on the existing research on the offshore RMB market, it is generally believed that geographical location, economic level, the legal system, political stability, government policy support and other factors affect the development of the offshore RMB market. At the same time existing studies have also believe that Hong Kong has the ability to develop the offshore RMB market and its impacts on the mainland is basically controllable, such as the addition of hot money into the mainland, the mainland interest rate and exchange rate, affecting the money supply on the mainland, the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market etc. On the basis of these studies, this paper analyzes the development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market background and advantages. The conclusion is that Hong Kong has a sound financial system and regulation, developed financial market, and other successful offshore market experience like the offshore US dollar market. After further analysis on the central government’s policy of RMB internationalization process, we found the central government is more inclined to support the development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market cautiously. However, the different RMB internationalization policy during the government’s departments enlarged the arbitrage controversy, which further affects the future development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market.Hong Kong has established complete offshore RMB market system preliminarily with a certain degree of market depth. This article shows us a thorough analysis in three aspects that is the clearing system, investment market and foreign exchange market. First of all, in terms of payment, Hong Kong’s RMB clearing net provided payment and settlement services between offshore and onshore markets. Secondly, Hong Kong’s RMB investment market has a certain scale with diversified issuers. Thirdly, two foreign exchange markets were established:one is CNY currency markets with the cross-border trade enterprises to participate; the other one is a completely free CNH exchange rates market. Hong Kong and the global market participants are in a free competitive context leading to Hong Kong marketization of RMB exchange rate without any transaction background restrictions. When the two markets develop to a certain size, they can provide different foreign exchanges including spot, forward, NDF and IRS and so on. Under the circumstance of non-free exchange in the mainland, Hong Kong’s RMB offshore market plays a very important role for the foreign inverters.The biggest obstacle in the development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market is the interest arbitrage between offshore and onshore market. This phenomenon has an important impact on the development of Hong Kong’s RMB offshore market. This paper analyzes three kinds of cross-border RMB arbitrage model and their impacts. The positive influence of arbitrage is the promotion to the development of RMB cross-border transaction. However, its negative influence is the influence of mainland money supply and macroeconomic regulation and control. In sum, the negative impact of arbitrage is limited. The development of Hong Kong’s RMB offshore market is of great help to the RMB internationalization.In sum, the conclusion is:firstly our government can play the positive role of arbitrage to accelerate RMB internationalization and the development of Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market; secondly, we should establish an easier environment for mainland enterprise to launch IPO and issue RMB bonds so as to promote the development of the Hong Kong investment market; lastly the development of RMB offshore market in Hong Kong fully reflects the role of market forces. Therefore, the Chinese government can learn from Hong Kong’s offshore RMB market mechanism to complete the mainland exchanging and bond market, which eventually realize the virtuous cycle development between onshore and offshore markets.更多还原