【作者】 高云；

【导师】 胡德坤；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 国际关系与中外关系史， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 在俄罗斯的国家发展史上,海洋战略一直起着十分重要而独特的作用。基辅罗斯由于通海商路得以形成壮大,沙俄通过出海口战略而成为世界强国,苏联更是通过远洋进攻而获得冷战的均势。虽然当代俄罗斯已不再居于世界的中心地位,但作为有着帝国追忆和海洋情结的大国,俄罗斯正在积聚力量寻求复兴,海洋仍然是其关注的重点。应当看到,当前,俄罗斯发展理念已由过去的粗放式外扩转向内敛式集约,海洋战略的重心也已由海洋通道转向海洋资源的控制利用,这一理念的变化反映的正是俄罗斯国家发展三百年积淀的思考。本文旨在梳理俄罗斯古代、近代、现代和当代海洋战略演变过程,考察其海洋事业发展情况,从当代视角探求其经验教训,寻求陆海复合型大陆性国家发展的黄金分割点,精准定位海洋战略在国家整体战略中的地位作用,从中总结出能为当前中国海洋强国建设借鉴的有益要素。出于这一目的,论文研究重点放在了当代俄罗斯海洋战略,并将之分为转轨期、当代以及当前和未来时期三个部分,以便突出研究的现实意义。就俄罗斯海洋战略的源头而言,俄罗斯海洋传统源自北欧诺曼人的分支瓦兰吉亚人。瓦兰吉亚人有着西方海洋民族的强烈逐利特性和冒险精神,正是由于瓦兰吉亚人的强力介入,依托连接斯堪的纳维亚和拜占庭这一中世纪东西方贸易商路,松散的斯拉夫公社被凝聚成一个统一的国家——基辅罗斯。虽然由于之后的内部纷争,基辅罗斯并没能实现其海洋追求,特别是蒙古人的入侵,彻底打断了基辅罗斯向海的发展方向,但充当东西方贸易中间人获利的思想和北欧海盗所特有的冒险开拓精神已溶入俄罗斯的血脉,成为俄罗斯的民族内核之一。莫斯科公国兴起后,这一思想内核开始发酵,伊凡三世和伊凡四世为获取东西方贸易之利进行了长期的战争,奠定了后来沙俄出海口战略的根基。彼得大帝作为俄罗斯历史上最有为的君王,不但成功推行了西化改革,使沙俄步入世界强国之列,而且针对俄罗斯的地缘劣势,为俄罗斯确立了完整的出海口战略,使沙俄完成了由“地域残蚕食体制”向“世界侵略体制”的转变。在追逐出海口的过程中,沙俄的国家命运同出海口战略的成败得失紧密交融。在俄国达到其封建农奴专制制度支撑下国家权势所能抵达的发展顶峰后,制度瓶颈扼住了出海口战略的咽喉,使沙俄在克里米亚战争和日俄战争中相继惨败,并最后在第一次世界大战中耗尽了力气,成为帝国主义链条上最薄弱的环节。苏俄成立后,不得不从帝俄的遗产上全面后退,《布列斯特和约》虽剥离了俄罗斯向海洋发展和重新成为强国的可能,但给予了苏俄以喘息之机。之后,德国迅速崩溃,实际上这一束缚并未产生消解苏俄复兴帝俄荣光能力的后果。但经历了革命和国内战争创伤的苏联已不再具有帝俄的战略位势,在一穷二白的基础上,苏联海洋战略走过了从近岸和近海防御向远洋进攻的发展路线,并最终得以建立起与美国相匹敌的国家海上威力体系。在这一过程中,苏联也完成了由偏居一隅的孤零社会主义国家向领导社会主义阵营同美国西方阵营全球角逐的世界性强国的转变。但辉煌的成果掩盖不了苏联国家体制和政策的缺陷,重复了法国和德国过度扩张的错误,美国则利用苏联的战略失误,使苏联走上自我否定的道路。俄罗斯成立后,受久已遭压抑而突然迸发的政治狂热推动,俄罗斯奉行大西洋主义的思想路线,推行一边倒战略,实行全面战略收缩。同时,面对解体后的颓势,俄罗斯被迫从远洋缩回到陆上,进入黑暗的十年。这一过程中,俄罗斯海洋思想遇冷,并一度放弃了海洋,承自苏联的海洋遗产陷入全面危机状态,海洋战略陷于钟摆死区。但俄罗斯毕竟是一个大国和传统强国,随着俄罗斯重回欧亚主义轨道,俄罗斯海洋战略开始重启。在普京执掌俄罗斯后,明确提出海洋强国的战略目标,俄罗斯海洋战略得到了充分发展。基于对历史经验教训的反思和时代趋势的思考,当代俄罗斯海洋战略已不再将海权追求置于中心位置,而是将重心集中于综合国力的发展,确立了促进国内社会和经济发展的海洋战略中心任务,权益维度不断拓展,利益主体趋于多元,对抗性思维正逐步让位于合作、和谐。同时,鉴于当前强权政治现实,俄罗斯并未放弃军事的基础性地位,海军仍然是国家海洋战略的关注重点,但其侧重已由海上通道转向海洋资源,由军事安全转为经济安全,核心任务也逐步定位于以海洋事业的发展全面提高综合国力,保障俄罗斯海洋强国地位,促进国家经济建设,为俄罗斯国家发展寻求新的增长空间。总体来看,俄罗斯各个时期的海洋战略主要解决两大问题：一是共性问题,即如何克服俄大陆性地缘局限；二是个性问题,即寻找各个时期海洋战略与俄国家大战略的契合点。应当看到,俄罗斯发展海洋事业受到的一系列不利自然条件’制约：国土基本处于高纬度地带,冬季漫长且寒冷,缺少不冻港,除西部封闭内海的沿海地带外,北部和东部沿海地带人烟稀少,发展海洋事业所需基础设施远离主要人口聚居地,初期投入和后期养护成本也很高,海上事业缺乏自我造血功能,从某种意义上来说,俄罗斯缺乏真正意义上的海洋传统。为了牵引国家发展和实现国家利益的战略需求,俄罗斯只能通过国家海洋战略的牵引,以国家主导的方式来克服自身发展海洋事业的各项劣势。从其海洋战略发展的历史轨迹来看,这种大陆性国家主导的海洋事业发展模式使俄海洋战略呈现脆弱性和不可持续性,而在不利的地缘政治条件下——沙俄时期因扩张造成的四邻不宁、苏联时期因意识形态而面临的强敌环伺——又加重了其对军事力量的依赖和对均势的追求,造成其近现代海洋战略呈现出较为突出的海军战略色彩。而在当代和平发展时代主题下,俄罗斯海洋战略演进已发生变化,逐步放弃单纯从安全角度来考虑战略问题的传统权力思维模式。一方面开始强调发展海军除保障国家安全外,还兼有保持其工业基础、拓展经济维度、最终复兴其大国地位的重要作用；另一方面更为重视发展问题,通过发展海洋事业,特别是开发远东和北极地区的资源和航线,促进地区均衡发展,为国家发展开辟新的战略空间,增强国家的战略稳定性。因此,当代俄罗斯海洋战略是兼顾安全与发展两方面战略需求的集合。综上所述,俄海洋战略的基本问题：一是克服大陆属性建立海权的问题,二是防止陆海冲突实现平衡的问题,三是发挥自身地缘优势确保国家利益最大化的问题。其三百年发展史的经验教训：一是要服从并服务于国家战略；二是要保持海军力量与海洋经济的平衡；三是要统筹陆海发展矢量；四是要关注海洋战略各利益主体诉求；五是要整体稳步推进。应当说,俄罗斯海洋战略实践是一面镜子。从历史的视角来看,它反映的是时代发展的趋势同国家具体实际的结合过程；从现实的立场来看,它提出的是国家如何战胜局限和困难,从海洋获取发展机遇和未来的策略。因此,保持客观清醒地认识,充分汲取俄罗斯海洋战略的有益因素,对当前正在建设海洋强国的中国大有裨益。更多还原

【Abstract】 The maritime strategy of Russia plays important and unique role in Russian history. For example, kievan Rus struggled to be powerful because of the trade road to sea; Tsarist Russia once became the power in the world with the marine outfall strategy; While the Soviet Union gained balance in Cold War with ocean offense. Although the modern Russia has lost the core role, holding the memory of empire and maritime complex, its goal is to accumulate a revived nation while focusing maritime affairs. Recently, Russia begins to centralize instead of expanding and transform the maritime path to maritime resource which reflects the pondering on Russian development during three hundred years. This paper summaries the maritime affairs and strategies during different periods of Russia, such as ancient, neoteric, contemporary and modern Russia, looks for the golden point of the development for land and sea complex continental nation, positions the role of maritime strategy in comprehensive national strategy, probes on its lessons with modern standpoint, and tenders the useful essence for construction of Chinese maritime power. Therefore, in order to highlight the realistic meaning, the dissertation focuses the modern Russian maritime strategy by researching the transformation era, the up-to-date era and future era.The Russian maritime tradition originates in Varangian, a filiation of northern Norman, which possesses western maritime national strong advantageous and aggressive sprits. Because of forcible Varangian intervention, the loose Slavonian societies were unified into Kievan Rus by bridging the trade road between Scandinavian and Byzantine Empire. Kievan Rus failed in tempt to maritime power because of its own conflicts and the Mongolian intrusion especially. Though, the idea of benefiting as intermediator between the West and the East and the aggression of Northern European pirate blended into Russian spirit. While Grand Duchy of Moscow booming, the spirit began to ferment Ivan the Third and Ivan the Fourth to fight for benefit in trade between the West and the East. The war made a foundation for Tsarist Russia maritime outfall strategy. As the distinguished Emperor, Peter the Great put forward the reform so that Tsarist Russia paced into the powers in the world. Tsarist Russia founded comprehensive maritime outfall strategy and changed its regime from Nibbling in Area to Aggressing in the World in order to overcome the geopolitical limitation. During the course of purchasing maritime outfall, Tsarist Russia and the maritime outfall strategy possess the same fate. When the nation ascended the peak supported by the Feudal Serfdom Serf System, the regime became the choke point of maritime outfall strategy so that Tsarist Russia lost in the Crimean War and Russian-Japan War and exhausted in the WWI. From then on, Tsarist Russia became the most vulnerability in the chain of imperialism.The Soviet Union withdrew from the heritage of Tsarist Russia. Although it is impossible for Russia to orient maritime affairs and be the power because of the limitation of The Breast treatment, Deutschland collapsed immediately. The treatment did not result in Carthaginian outcome, but the Soviet Union in turbulence had not possessed the supremacy of Tsarist Russia and struggled to gain the national power system peer to the U.S. with a maritime strategy roadmap from littoral defense to ocean offense. During the evolution, the Soviet Union transformed from a solo socialist country to world power leading the fight with the U.S. and its allies. The grand achievement cannot cover the vulnerability of the national regime and policies. Finally, the Soviet Union repeated the same mistake in expand excessively made by France and Deutschland, while the U.S. use its strategy lapses to put it into abysm.The Russia put forward the Atlantics idea and enthusiastically centralized strategically under the oppression, while withdrew from the ocean and step into a dark decade. During the course, Russia ignored the maritime idea and quit maritime affairs. The heritage of Soviet Union falls in crisis fully and the maritime strategy stopped completely. After all, Russia is still powerful and Russian maritime began to develop with the return to European-Asian orbit.Putin tendered the goal to be a maritime power and put forward the Russian maritime strategy. Based thought of historic lessons and future trends, Russia does not focus the maritime supremacy but centralizes the comprehensive power supported by maritime strategy, the value and its owners expand, the rivalry idea quits while cooperation and harmony gain the gravity. Of course, Russia never give up military affairs which attribute to national fundamental essence and navy still play a very important role in national maritime strategy. In the future, Russia will transform the maritime path to maritime resource, adjust the military security to economic security, and put forward the comprehensive national power with the development of maritime affairs, struggle new room for Russian development.Different maritime strategy of Russia focus in revolving two big problems, the first also the common is how to overcome the continental geographical limitation, the second also the individual is how to look for the gear linked maritime strategy and national grand strategy. Russia is restricted by various environments such as high latitude, long winter, and shortage of ice-free ports. At the same time, underpopulated northern and eastern areas make against basic development of maritime affairs in different phrases. In fact, Russia lacks real maritime tradition so that it must design national maritime in order to put the national interests forward. In historic standpoint, the continental national maritime affairs model displays vulnerability and induration. The expand of Tsarist Russia and the ideology of the Soviet Union result in single navy strategy, while the evolution of Russian maritime strategy changes from pure security to comprehensive factor such as holding industry bases, expanding economic dimension, and reviving its power as before. Russia begins to focus development of sources and routes of Far East and Arctic in order to look for new strategic rooms and stability. Therefore, the modern Russian maritime strategy consists of security and development at all.In brief, the essential considerations consist three, the first is developing sea power instead of continental contribution, the second is balancing the conflict between the sea and land, the third is displaying geographical characteristic. While the lessons consist five, the first is supporting national strategy, the second is balancing the navy power between the maritime economic, the third is coordinating land and sea development vector, the fourth is focusing the requirement of different community of interesting, the fifth is putting forward comprehensively. The practice of Russian maritime is a mirror. In the historic standpoint, it reflects the coordination of the future trends and national reality. In the realistic standpoint, it tenders the strategy on gaining the opportunity and the future while overcoming the limitation and difficulty. Retaining profound opinion and useful factors of Russian maritime strategy will contribute to China which is looking forward to construct powerful maritime country.更多还原