【作者】 杨坚；

【导师】 聂华林；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 21世纪是海洋的世纪,世界各国都在努力加快海洋开发利用步伐,而山东作为我国的沿海经济大省,区位优势明显,海岸线较长,海洋资源丰富。2009年提出了打造山东半岛蓝色经济区的战略构想,2011年1月,国务院正式批复《山东半岛蓝色经济区发展规划》,标志着山东半岛蓝色经济区建设已经发展到国家战略高度,山东半岛海洋经济发展迎来了重大战略机遇,将使得山东半岛成为我国海洋发展战略和区域协调发展战略的重要组成部分。但与此同时,机遇中也蕴含着重大的挑战,山东半岛海洋经济发展面临着诸多重大问题,海洋资源的日益枯竭,海洋生态环境的不断恶化,使得传统的资源密集型低附加值海洋产业结构已不再适应现代海洋经济的发展要求,山东半岛海洋产业亟需转型升级,实现可持续发展。本文综合运用区域经济学、产业经济学、数量经济学和可持续发展理论,从政治环境、经济环境、社会环境和技术环境等方面对山东半岛海洋经济的发展及其产业结构的现状进行分析与评价,指出山东海洋产业结构仍不合理,未出现“三二一”的产业格局,需进一步转型升级；在此基础上,结合国内外文献的研究成果与山东海洋产业发展的特点,选择合适的海洋产业转型升级测度指标,构建了山东海洋产业转型升级指数,建立多元回归模型并实证检验,指出了山东海洋产业发展中存在的重要问题,即说明山东海洋产业转型升级的必要性。然后,运用多元回归模型和面板数据模型定量分析山东海洋产业转型升级过程中的影响因素；最后,在产业转型升级的影响因素的基础上,构建山东海洋主导产业选择综合评价指标,选择山东海洋经济发展的主导产业,通过比对山东海洋产业的主导产业以及关联产业和基础产业的协调性情况,为山东海洋产业转型升级协调发展路径的选择提供理论依据,并为推动山东海洋转型升级提供了一系列的对策和建议。本文首先从山东海洋产业的宏观角度分析海洋产业发展的良好环境,并分析了山东海洋产业的结构现状及其变化,指出山东海洋第三产业发展较慢,产业结构仍未呈现出“三二一”的产业发展高级阶段的特征,亟需进一步转型升级。为了进一步理顺海洋产业转型升级同海洋产业发展之间的关系,结合国内外相关文献的研究结论,本文选择了海洋产业转型升级测度指标,亦即选择三次产业结构比例指标表示海洋产业结构的合理化、产业结构高度化指数表示海洋产业结构的高度化、劳动生产率表示海洋产业结构的高效化,运用主成分分析方法构建出山东海洋产业转型升级指数,并选取劳动、资本、技术投入数据以及海洋产业总产值,建立多元回归模型分析,找出了山东海洋产业发展中存在的问题,亦即说明山东海洋产业转型升级的必要性,据此得出结论：山东海洋产业发展仍然依靠资本和劳动投入拉动,而科学技术水平和海洋产业转型升级对海洋产业发展的推动作用仍较小。在对山东海洋产业转型升级必要性的分析的基础上,本文选取了四个重要的影响因素,亦即经济发展水平、海洋科学技术水平、政府支持力度以及金融机构的资金支持,采用多元回归模型和面板数据模型分析了这些因素对山东以及全国其他沿海地区的海洋产业转型升级进程的影响,得出结论：经济发展水平、政府支持和金融支持对山东海洋产业转型速度影响显著,且金融支持对产业转型升级的影响大于政府支持的影响力度；沿海各个地区的海洋产业转型的主导影响因素不同,经济发达地区的海洋技术进步的影响力度明显大于其他地区；同时,提出了国家应该根据地区的具体情况,因地制宜的采取措施实现产业转型升级,缩短地区间的差距。最后,基于山东海洋产业转型升级过程中影响因素分析,构建了山东海洋主导产业的综合评价指标,通过修正的“钻石模型”和因子分析方法选择山东海洋产业发展的主导产业,并通过协调发展模型对山东各地区的海洋产业发展协调度做了测算,并根据研究结果提出了山东海洋产业区域协调路径的修正,研究表明,从2000年到2010年,山东海洋产业排序较为前列的产业从海洋渔业、海洋盐业到滨海旅游、海洋交通运输和海洋医药,服务性产业发展速度逐渐加快,取代传统海洋产业成为山东海洋主导产业,并在此基础上,为山东海洋产业转型升级提供了切实可行的路径选择和理论指导,以提高海洋科学技术为导向,促进技术、资金密集型产业的发展,从而带动山东海洋产业的转型升级。依据文章前面对山东海洋产业转型升级的分析结果,提出了一系列的建议和对策：加快发展海洋第三产业,从资源消耗型到技术、资金密集型产业演进,重点发展海洋主导产业,带动海洋产业结构从低级阶段向高级阶段演进；推动海洋科学技术进步,增强山东海洋创新能力,同时,建立多元的海洋金融支持体制,促进山东海洋产业转型升级。更多还原

【Abstract】 The21st Century is the century of the ocean so that every country in the world has being speeded up the pace of developing and utilizing the ocean. Shandong Province is a coastal economic province in China, which has the remarkable geographic location with the long coastline and the abundant marine resource. The strategy about Blue Economic Zone of Shandong Peninsula was put forward in2009. Then the State Council officially approved the "the Development Plan of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone" in January2011that indicate the construction of Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone has been improved to the national strategic level. The important strategic opportunities for marine economy development of Shandong Peninsula will transfer Shandong into a critical part of China’s marine development strategy and regional development strategy. However at the same time, the opportunity also contains a significant challenge. There are many problems to be solved while the marine economy of Shandong has been developed, such as the draining marine resource, deterioating marine ecological environment and so on. Therefore, the traditional low value-added resource-intensive marine industrial structure is no longer suitable for the requirements of developing the modern marine economy. The marine industry of Shandong Peninsula is required to upgrade to develop sustainably.This paper critically analyzes and evaluates the current situation of industrial structure of Shandong Peninsula marine economic development from the perspectives of the political environment, economic environment, social environment and technical environment, synthetically using the regional economics, industrial economics, econometrics and sustainable development theories. It points out the Shandong marine industrial structure is unreasonable without industrial pattern named "three, two, one". As a result, the industrial structure needs to further transform and upgrade. Dependent on the viewpoint above, firstly, the paper selects the appropriate measure index, constructs the transformation and upgrade index of marine industry in Shandong and establishes the multiple regression model to discover the important issues of marine industry in Shandong, taking consideration into the characteristics of domestic research literature and Shandong marine development, the necessity of marine industry in Shandong transformation and upgrading. Secondly, it analyzes the factors that influence on the marine industry of Shandong in the process of transformation and upgrading with multiple regression model and panel data model. At last, on the base of such influencing factors, the article builds up a comprehensive evaluation index of leading industry of Shandong marine industry to assist to choose the leading industry of Shandong ocean development. Meanwhile, Through the comparison of marine industry in Shandong province’s leading industry and related industries and basic industries coordinationcondition, provides the theory basis for the transformation and upgradingof marine industry in Shandong province development path selection, and upgrade provides a series of countermeasures and suggestions to promote the transformation of Shandong ocean.To begin with, the article analyzes the positive developmental environment of the marine industry from a macro perspective. Then it analyzes the current situation and the changes on the structure of marine industry in Shandong whose result reveals that the development of the service sector is relatively slow than others, and the industrial structure has not appeared the features of advanced phase "three, two, one". The industrial structure needs to upgrade based on the current circumstance. In order to discuss the relationship between the marine industrial development and the marine industrial transformation and upgrading, the article chooses measure index of transformation and upgrade of marine area, which is the ratio of industrial structure index showing reasonable, marine industrial structure supererogation index indicating height, and labor productivity of marine the industrial structure representing efficiency, by combining with the findings of the related literatures. Then the paper uses principal component analysis to construct index of transformation and upgrading of marine industry in Shandong. After that the paper selects the labor, capital, technology input data and the total output value of marine industries to establish the multiple regression analysis model of marine industry in Shandong which demonstrates the necessity of transformation and upgrading. It following comes to a conclusion that the development of marine industry in Shandong still relies on the capital and labor inputs. But the level of science, technology and the transformation and upgrading of industry plays little role in promoting the development of the marine industry.Secondly, based on the analysis of the necessity of the transformation and upgrading of marine industry in Shandong, this paper selects four important factors, namely, the level of economic development, marine science and technology level, the support of government and the financial support of financial institutions. Then it takes advantage of multiple regression model and panel data model to study their influences on the transformation and upgrade process of Shandong and the rest of the coastal regions around the country. The paper draws the conclusion that the marine industry transformation in Shandong is significantly affected by the level of economic development, government support and financial support, where the influence of financial support on industrial transformation and upgrading is larger than the impact of government support. Moreover, the main influential factors on marine industry transformation of all coastal areas are different. In developed areas, the impact of marine technology progress is obviously larger than other regions. At the same time, the state should take measures to adapt some measures to local conditions to achieve the industrial transformation and upgrading and shorten the gap between regions.Finally, the article establishes a comprehensive evaluation of marine leading industry indicators of Shandong, based on the analysis of the influential factors of the marine industrial restructuring and upgrading of Shandong. It utilizes "the diamond model" and the method of factor analysis to select the leading industry. The research discovers that the forefront of Shandong marine industry from2000to2010is fishery, sea salt, the coastal tourism, marine transportation and marine medicine. According to the results, service industry development has developed rapidly these years and instead of the traditional marine industry as the leading industry of Shandong. After that analysis, the paper provides theoretical guidance and practical access to upgrading for the marine industry transformation in Shandong. In order to accelerate the rate of the transformation of marine industry in Shandong, the paper suggests to improve the marine science and technology, capital-intensive industry, marine industrial upgrading. Based on the results of the analysis in the front of the marine industrial transformation and upgrading of Shandong, the paper puts forward some suggestions to accelerate the development of the marine industry. First and foremost, the government should put more attention on the service sector, transforming from resource consumption to technology, capital-intensive industry. Then, it is quite significant to focus on the development of marine leading industry, deriving the marine industry structure evolution from lower stage to higher stage. Next, it needs to advance the marine science and technology, and enhance the innovation ability. Last but not the least, the multiple financial support system should be established to promote the transformation and upgrading of Shandong marine industry.更多还原