【作者】 昝国江；

【导师】 杨肃昌； 高新才；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 区域经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 健康的城镇化发展将为我国经济社会可持续发展提供强劲动力。新世纪以来,随着城镇化战略的扎实推进,我国人口城镇化水平快速提升,人口、经济社会、生产生活、资源环境以及政府管理等诸多方面发生了一系列深刻变化。然而,不可回避的是,城镇化快速发展过程中,亦暴露出一系列诸如城镇人口急剧增长、城镇建成区无序蔓延以及生态环境污染加剧等不可持续发展的问题。本文认为城镇化发展不能光着眼于其发展的外部环境,更为重要的是要对城镇化问题本身进行深入剖析。本文以城镇化泡沫为切入点,尝试从基于省际格局和不同城镇规模两个维度对我国城镇化泡沫相关问题开展了较为系统的理论研究和现实解释,这对健康持续加速城镇化进程,实现“新四化”建设目标具有重要理论意义和实践价值。首先,立足城镇化泡沫研究的理论基础,对城镇、城镇化概念梳理的基础上,对城镇化泡沫给出了理论界定,并从城镇发展质量和区域发展质量两个角度诠释了城镇化泡沫的丰富内涵；进而针对城镇化泡沫测度指标体系设计处于萌芽阶段的现实,探索性地构建了包括基于城镇发展质量的人口城镇化泡沫、经济城镇化泡沫、空间城镇化泡沫、基本公共服务城镇化泡沫、环境城镇化泡沫和基于区域发展质量的城镇化泡沫等统计指标的城镇化泡沫综合测度指标体系,并选择了城镇化泡沫测度方法。第二,基于省际格局的维度,利用城镇化泡沫综合测度指标体系测度了1999-2011年全国30个省(市、自治区)城镇化泡沫的变动情况。结果表明,全国范围内的空间城镇化泡沫、环境城镇化泡沫、区域发展城镇化泡沫已较为明显,人口城镇化泡沫、经济城镇化泡沫表现一般,而基本公共服务城镇化泡沫表现最弱；主成分分析发现,全国近2/3的省(市、自治区)可能已存在程度各异的城镇化泡沫；城镇化泡沫呈现出较为明显的区际差异,东部地区较为明显,中部地区次之,西部地区尚未表现出整体意义上的城镇化泡沫；聚类分析结果进一步佐证了上述主成分分析的结论。利用空间计量分析方法进一步探索了全国30个省(市、自治区)城镇化泡沫的空间自相关性。全域性自相关检验表明,城镇化泡沫空间分布上不存在统计意义上的相关性；局域性自相关检验表明,2000-2011年,城镇化泡沫空间分布演化过程中一直呈现没有明显空间分异的格局,尚未出现同质性和异质性区域集聚的显著分异；城镇化泡沫表现一般或较弱的省(市、自治区)一直保持较大的区域范围,始终占据主导地位。第三,基于不同城镇规模的维度,利用城镇化泡沫综合测度指标体系测度了1999-2011年全国27个大中小城市城镇化泡沫的变动情况。结果表明,不同城镇规模的经济城镇化泡沫、空间城镇化泡沫、环境城镇化泡沫、区域发展城镇化泡沫已较为明显,且不同城镇规模间泡沫程度差异明显；人口城镇化泡沫表现一般,不同城镇规模间的泡沫程度亦表现出一定差异；基本公共服务城镇化泡沫最不明显,不同城镇规模间泡沫程度差异甚微；主成分分析发现,2/3强的城市表现出程度各异的城镇化泡沫,不同城镇规模间城镇化泡沫差异明显,城镇化泡沫数值相近的城市各因子的载荷度亦存在明显差异：方差分析表明,不同城镇规模间城镇化泡沫程度在5%的显著性水平上,不存在统计意义上的显著差异。第四,城镇化发展问题是区域治理的重要议题。探索性地选取区域治理视角,由城镇化发展中的“诺思悖论”入手,运用制度经济学相关理论,对我国城镇化泡沫成因机理进行了较为深入的剖析。认为我国区域治理中治理基础薄弱,使得城镇化发展中未能实现“好的治理”,即“善治”,是导致城镇化泡沫的重要原因。上述研究视角和结论可能对城镇化泡沫问题的系统研究起到抛砖引玉的作用。第五,时间序列预测方法研究发现,省际间城镇化泡沫呈现一定的增长趋势,且发展态势存在较为明显的区域差异,东部地区城镇化泡沫增长趋势较为明显,但减小趋势较弱；中部地区城镇化泡沫减小趋势明显,且强于增长趋势；西部地区城镇化泡沫增长趋势最弱。大中小城市城镇化泡沫增长趋势亦较为明显,但不同城镇规模间城镇化泡沫发展态势存在较为明显的差异,大城市城镇化泡沫发展趋势明显,小城市次之,中等城市则表现最弱。最后,以城镇化泡沫研究的相关理论基础为指导,全面把握我国城镇化泡沫发展现状、成因机理和发展趋势的基础上,提出了较为深入和系统的化解城镇化泡沫的政策建议,可为有关部门决策提供咨询、智力支持和参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 A sound urbanization development will provide a strong impetus for sustainable development of economic and social in China. As China’s urbanization strategy has been implementing since the beginning of the21st century, the population urbanization level has seen a rapid increase, and in consequence profound changes has taken place in respective of population, economy, society, production, life style, resources, environment and government management. However, during this process a series of problems was inevitably exposed, such as too rapid increase in urban population, sprawls of urban constructions and the worsening ecological and environmental conditions. Due to these problems, this dissertation holds that external environments should not be the only focus of the urbanization process. In-depth analysis of urbanization problems are of even more importance. Based on the variations in dimensions of provinces and urban scales, this dissertation systematically does a theoretical research into the problem of urbanization bubble and gives practical explanations.Firstly, based on the existent theoretical studies on urbanization bubble, this dissertation reviews concepts of cities and towns, urbanization, and clearly defines urbanization bubble, for whose connotation this dissertation provides explanations from perspectives of the urbanization and urban-rural integration. Further, as there has not yet been an authoritative and acknowledged index system to measure bubble, and the design of the urbanization bubble measure index system is still in its infancy, this dissertation explores and works out an integrated urbanization bubble measure index system, whose statistical indicators includes urbanization bubbles of population, economy, space, basic public service and environment, which are based on the quality of cities and towns development, and urbanization bubble based on regional development.Secondly, on the dimension of provinces, this dissertation measures urbanization bubble in30provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from the year of1999to2011, with the integrated urbanization bubble measure index system. The results show that urbanization bubbles of space, environment and regional development are fairly evident, those of population and economy are moderate, while basic public service urbanization bubble are the most inconspicuous. According to principle component analysis, it is likely that urbanization bubble exists in two thirds of provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, the degrees of which vary from the strongest in the eastern region, followed by central China, to western region where there has not yet been an overall urbanization bubble. The outcome of cluster analysis supports the conclusion above. Then the dissertation tests the spatial autocorrelation among the30provinces, cities and autonomous regions with the spatial econometric analysis method. The global autocorrelation test shows that the spatial distribution of urbanization bubble is not statistically correlated. The local autocorrelation test reveals that during the evolution of the spatial distribution of urbanization bubble from the year of2000to2011, clear spatial differentiation never appeared; neither did the significant differentiation of regional agglomerations of homogeneity and heterogeneity. Regions of moderate or inconspicuous urbanization bubble has always taken the most part of China.Thirdly, on the dimension of urban scales, this dissertation measures urbanization bubble in27cities of big, middle and small scales in China from the year of2000to2011, with the integrated urbanization bubble measure index system. The results show that urbanization bubbles of economy, space, environment and regional development in cities of different scales are fairly evident. However, divergences of degrees of these bubbles among cites of different scales are obvious. Population urbanization bubble is moderate, and there also exists divergences in degrees among cites of different scales. Basic public service urbanization bubble is the most inconspicuous, so are the variations in degrees among cites of different scales. Principle component analysis testifies that urbanization bubble exists in two thirds of cities, the degrees of which vary due to different scales. The degrees of load of factors of cities with similar urbanization bubble values are obviously different. Variance analysis indicates that urbanization bubble degrees among cities of different scales are not statistically different on the significance level of5%.Fourthly, the urbanization development problem is an important issue of regional governance. Using the perspective of regional governance and starting by the urbanization of the "North Paradox", this dissertation use theories of institutional economics to analyze formation mechanisms of urbanization bubble in China. Due to the weak governance foundation of regional governance,"good governance" is failed to achieve in regional governance in the development of urbanization progress. Failing to achieve "good governance" is the important reasons of causing urbanization bubble. These studies may play a valuable role to systematic research on urbanization bubble.Fifthly, the consequence of time series forecasting method research manifests that urbanization bubble shows an inter-provincial upward trend. The growth trend of urbanization bubble continues in the eastern region with very little sign of decrease; central China shows a decreasing trend stronger than growth trend; and the growth trend in the western region is the weakest. Cities of different scales also show increasing trend of urbanization bubble, which differentiate each other by the level of scale:the trend in big cities are the strongest, followed by small cities, and at last middle cities.Finally, guiding by the correlation theory of the urbanization bubble, and based on the development status, formation mechanisms and development trends of the urbanization bubble in China, the systematic policy recommendations are proposed to resolve the urbanization bubble. The policy recommendations can provide advice, intelligence support and reference for government sector.更多还原