【作者】 马一博；

【导师】 陈伟；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着全球经济一体化以及国家经济结构与国际并轨，国家经济战略从速度为角度衡量经济发展逐渐转变为效率和质量为角度衡量经济发展。提高经济效率和质量较为有效的方式是将经济增长方式从简单的劳动力密集型和资金密集型转变为知识密集型，同时经济体系内部的产业要从劳动力密集型和资金密集型产业转变为知识密集型产业。形成知识密集型产业的基本元素是知识密集型企业以及相关的保障制度，因此知识密集型企业是加快国家经济战略转型和保证国家经济战略转型最基本的单元。在知识密集型企业群体中，知识密集型新创企业是极为有活力的群体，同时也是最大程度推动国家经济战略转型的群体，知识密集型新创企业具有高成长、高技术和高知识性的特点，对国家经济战略转型提供了动力。可见，知识密集型新创企业成长和发展程度最直接影响着国家经济战略的转型，知识密集型新创企业成长过程中的各种风险是制约知识密集型企业成长和发展的重要因素，即知识密集型新创企业成长风险是制约国家经济战略转型的重要因素，对知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警的研究极为重要。本文首先对知识密集型新创企业的概念和特征进行阐述，在此基础上对知识密集型新创企业成长风险进行分类，同时对知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警管理的概念、功能和过程进行阐述，并分析了知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警现状，指出现阶段知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警的优势与不足；分别从内部和外部两个方面对知识密集型新创企业成长风险的影响进行阐述；构建了知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警系统，并对其特征、构建原则和影响因素进行阐述；在知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警系统的基础上细分了识别子系统、测量子系统和评级预警子系统三个子系统，分别运用GEM群组决策特征根法、GO法原理以及灰色理论等方法对三个子系统的构建提供了理论支持和模型支持；基于知识密集型新创企业成长风险预警系统及识别子系统、测量子系统和评级预警子系统三个子系统，结合18家知识密集型新创企业，对知识密集型新创企业进行风险预警实证分析，最后结合实际情况从内部和外部两方面提出降低知识密集型新创企业成长风险和保障知识密集型新创企业高速成长的对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the globalization of the world economy and the international countries’ economicstructure, the national economic strategy which measures economic from the angle of speed isgradually transformed into the one in the view of efficiency and quality. The more effectiveway to improve the economic efficiency and quality is changing the economic growth modefrom the simple labor-intensive and capital-intensive to knowledge-intensive. Meanwhile, theindustry inside economy system should be turned into knowledge-intensive industry from thelabor-intensive and capital-intensive ones. The basic elements of a knowledge-intensiveindustry are a knowledge-intensive enterprise and the corresponding security system, thus, theknowledge-intensive enterprises are the basic units to accelerate and ensure the strategictransformation of the national economy. Among the knowledge-intensive enterprises,knowledge-intensive new venture is an extremely dynamic group, which is also the grouppromoting transformation national economic strategy. Knowledge-intensive new venture hasthe characteristics of high-growth, high-tech and high-knowledge, provided the impetus forthe strategic transformation of the national economy. Therefore, the growth and developmentof knowledge-intensive new ventures directly impacted the transformation of nationaleconomic strategy, the risk during the growth process of knowledge-intensive new venturebecame an important factor to restrict the strategic transformation of the national economy,which is extremely important for the research on the growth risk early-warning ofknowledge-intensive new venture.This paper firstly described the concept and characteristics of knowledge-intensive newventures, on this basis, classified the growth risk of knowledge-intensive new venture, and atthe same time discussed the concept, functions and processes of growth risks early-warning inknowledge-intensive new ventures, analyzed the growth risk early-warning status quo ofknowledge-intensive new venture, pointed out the strengths and weaknesses of the growthrisk early-warning of knowledge-intensive new venture at this stage; analyzed the conductionmechanisms and elaborated the impacts about growth risk early-warning ofknowledge-intensive new ventures from both internal and external aspects; built the growthrisk early warning system of knowledge-intensive new ventures and expounded itscharacteristics, principles and factors; subdivided recognition subsystem, measure subsystem and rating warning system on the basis of growth risk early-warning system ofknowledge-intensive new ventures, supplied theoretical support and model support for thosethree subsystems by use of the GEM group decision characteristic root method, the GOmethod principle as well as the gray theory; On the basis of growth risk early-warning systemof knowledge-intensive new venture and three aforesaid subsystems, combined eighteenknowledge-intensive new ventures, analyzed the risk early-warning of knowledge-intensivenew ventures by empirical cases, put forward the countermeasures on how to reduce thegrowth risk of knowledge-intensive new ventures and ensure the high growth ofknowledge-intensive new ventures from inside and outside aspects according the actualsituation in the end.更多还原