【作者】 贾立江；

【导师】 范德成；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 随着资源环境与经济发展的矛盾日益突出，21世纪人类正面临着经济发展方式的新变革，以低能耗、低排放、低污染为特征的低碳经济将成为未来经济发展方式的新选择。在能源缺乏，环境日益恶劣和温室气体减少排放的背景下，我国走低碳经济发展之路，既符合我国改变经济增长方式的国情，又对世界环境合作做出了很大贡献。正因如此，我国在内外部压力的影响下，走低碳经济发展之路成了一个必然的选择，那么我国低碳经济发展目标的确定以及如何才能实现预先设定的低碳经济发展目标就成了一个重要的课题。本文尝试通过建立低碳经济发展系统，对这一课题进行深入研究。本文的主要工作及创新如下：建立了低碳经济发展系统模型。根据对低碳经济发展系统概念的界定和特征，将低碳经济发展系统的要素进行分析并归纳15个要素，根据系统的各项组成要素之间的相互关系，构建了要素的关系模型。运用灰色系统模型测算了2020年我国低碳经济发展系统目标，然后，根据系统工程的目标手段理论以及碳排放周期分为能源结构调整子系统、节能减排子系统、碳吸收与存储子系统和环境支撑子系统四个子系统，分析了子系统之间的关系。在我们设定了低碳经济发展系统目标之后，应用计量经济学方法对实现目标的路径进行测算，测算了产业结构、能源结构、低碳技术对低碳经济发展目标实现的贡献度，得到了具有科学意义的贡献参数，并测度了要达到低碳经济发展系统目标，产业结构与能源结构所要达到的水平。在低碳经济发展系统目标的约束下，建立了节能减排子系统，对节能减排子系统的要素、结构和功能进行界定，通过分析找到其中主要的影响因素是产业结构，对产业结构的调整方向进行实证分析。先用通径分析方法对三次产业之间的结构进行定量分析，然后运用面板协整模型对第二产业内部行业结构进行深入分析比较，为三次产业结构以及第二产业内部结构调整指明了方向。在低碳经济发展系统目标的约束下，建立了能源结构调整子系统，对能源结构调整子系统的要素、结构和功能进行界定。运用社会网络分析方法对目前能源的调整进行度量，找出目前能源结构调整的方向，并在低碳经济发展系统目标的约束下，测算2020年我国能源结构的调整状况。在低碳经济发展系统目标的约束下，建立了碳吸收与存储子系统，对碳吸收与存储子系统的要素、结构和功能进行界定。在低碳经济发展目标的约束下，测算生物碳汇和碳吸收与存储对低碳经济发展的贡献。因为碳吸收与存储技术在低碳经济发展中的重要性，进一步的构建了碳吸收与存储技术项目评价指标体系，并将群组决策特征根法与模糊综合评价法、层次分析法有机结合构建了碳吸收与存储项目综合评价模型，为政府支持低碳技术项目提供依据。环境支持子系统，分析环境主要来自政府（包括法律环境和政策环境）环境支持，支持金融环境，文化环境的支持和基础设施环境支持，以支持低碳经济的发展提供更好的环境。最后论文建立了低碳经济发展系统的绩效评价指标体系，应用DEA多目标投入产出评价方法，对区域低碳经济发展系统进行实证评价，得出省域低碳经济发展系统的不平衡性。然后对省域低碳经济发展不平衡的地区进行单位特征根收敛性检验，得出区域间碳排放的均衡很难自动得到实现，要实现区际低碳均衡发展，需要政府政策的宏观干预政策。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the contradictions among resources, environment and economic development areincreasingly outstanding，human is facing innovation of economic development mode in the21st century. The low carbon economy featured by low material consumption, low emissionand low pollution, is a new choice of the economic development mode in the future. China isfacing large pressure on ER GHG and energy as well as ecological safety is threatened.Taking the path of a low carbon economy makes a great contribution to the worldwideenvironmental cooperation, in line with China’s national conditions of converting theeconomic increasing method.Therefore, it is imperative for the new developing situation ofthe country to establish low-carbon economy development system based on the analyses of itspotential.Establish a low-carbon economic development model. According to the definition andcharacteristics of the concept of low-carbon economic development system, low-carboneconomic development elements analyzed and summarized15elements, constructedaccording to the relationship between the elements of the system, the elements of therelationship model. Using gray system model estimates in2020China’s low-carbon economicdevelopment goals, and then, according to the means of goal theory of systems engineeringand the carbon cycle is divided into a subsystem of the energy structure adjustment, energysaving and emission reduction subsystem, carbon sequestration and storage subsystemand environment supporting subsystem four subsystems, and analyzed the relationshipbetween the subsystems.After we set a low-carbon economic development goals, the application of econometricmethods to calculate the path of goals, estimates of the industrial structure, energy structure,the contribution of low-carbon technologies for low-carbon economic development goals toachieve, measured the parameters of the scientific significance of the contribution, andmeasures the level of industrial structure and energy structure to achieve the goal of low-carbon economic development system.Constraints of low-carbon economic development goals of energy conservation andemission reduction subsystem, defined energy saving subsystem elements、 structure andfunction, found by analyzing which the main factor is the industrial structure, then empiricalanalysis the direction of industrial structure adjust. Path analysis and quantitative analysis ofthe structure between the three industries, and then use the panel cointegration model depthanalysis and comparison of internal industry structure of the secondary industry, and pointedout the direction for three industrial structure as well as the internal restructuring of the secondary industry.Constraints objectives in the development of low-carbon economy system, establishedthe energy structure adjustment subsystem, defined the elements of the structure and functionof the subsystem energy structure adjustment. Social network analysis methods to measurethe current energy adjustment, to identify the direction of the energy structure adjustment, andthe constraints of the system objectives of the development of low-carbon economy,estimated in2020China’s energy structure adjustment station.Constraints objectives in the development of low-carbon economy system, established ofa carbon absorption and storage subsystems, and defined the elements of the structure andfunction of carbon absorption and storage subsystems. Under the constraints of the low-carbon economic development goals, estimated of biological carbon sequestration and carbonabsorption and storage of the contribution to the development of low-carboneconomy. Because of the importance of carbon sequestration and storage technology in thedevelopment of low-carbon economy, built carbon sequestration and storage technologyproject evaluation index system, and eigenvalue method of group decision-making with fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method, analytic hierarchy process combine to build acomprehensive evaluation model for carbon sequestration and storage projects, to provide thebasis for the government to support low-carbon technology projects.In environment supporting subsystem, it analyzes environment mainly from governmentenvironmental support (including legal environment and policy environment), financialenvironmental support, culture environmental support and infrastructure environmentalsupport, in order to provide better environment support for the development of low-carboneconomy.Finally, On the basis of the analysis of low-carbon economy development system, thispaper makes a performance evaluation of low-carbon economic development system of theprovince. It establishes a performance evaluation index system based on DEA covering foursubsystems indicators, and demonstrates using the data of the provinces and cities in Chinafor the samples。Then, using the unit root test model analyses the convergence of the percapita carbon emissions.According to the analysis and evaluation of the results, it proposessome countermeasures in the development of China’s regional low-carbon economydevelopment system.更多还原