【作者】 李根；

【导师】 赵金楼；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 交通运输设备制造业在一国或地区工业化过程中的地位和作用十分突出，其是国民经济发展的重要基础工业。改革开放以来，我国交通运输设备制造业得到了长足发展，但与发达国家相比，仍存在诸多问题，其中能耗较高日益影响到行业的可持续发展。在当前能源紧缺和环境污染已成为制约我国经济社会可持续发展的主要矛盾的背景下，研究我国交通运输设备制造业能耗强度变动的影响因素、影响机理、影响效应及其未来趋势极为重要。本文依据能源的消耗对象及供给来源将能耗强度区分为直接能耗强度和完全能耗强度，按照现状研究-机理研究-优化研究-对策研究的思路，运用波动理论、物理-事理-人理系统方法论，向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、结构分解分析、DEA-Malmquist指数法、非线性优化模型等理论方法，展开对我国交通运输设备制造业能耗强度的变动研究。主要研究内容包括以下几个方面：（1）运用物理-事理-人理系统方法论分析了我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度变动的影响因素。根据方法论内涵，物理因素主要包括设计技术、建造技术、管理技术；事理因素主要包括行业结构、能耗结构、投资结构及进出口结构等；人理因素包括节能意识、能源政策、宏观经济、节能措施。通过研究发现，技术因素对直接能耗强度降低作用最为明显；1980-1995年汽车制造业比重与直接能耗强度呈现明显的正相关关系，但具有一定滞后性，1996-2010年二者波动关系相对不明显；煤炭消耗比重的下降，其他能耗比重的上升有利于直接能耗强度的下降；总体上我国交通运输设备制造业外商直接投资与直接能耗强度变动呈反向关系；宏观经济景气指数及波罗的海干散货运价指数与直接能耗强度呈反向变动关系，且宏观经济景气指数影响效应较大。（2）采用VAR、IRF和VD探究了多因素对我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度变动的影响效应，结果表明：①汽车制造业比重、汽车制造业直接能耗强度、外商直接投资、固定资产投资、煤炭消费比重对我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度的影响周期较长，影响时滞分别为4年、10年、10年、8年、8年，而能源价格对直接能耗强度的影响时滞为3年，影响周期较短。②我国交通运输设备制造业直接能耗强度的影响因素按重要程度排序为：完全能耗强度自身>汽车制造业比重>外商直接投资>能耗结构>技术进步>固定资产投资>能源价格。（3）利用结构分解分析（SDA）方法研究了我国交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度变化的深层次动因。结果表明：从完全能耗强度变动的原因看，降低完全能耗强度的首要因素是技术（包括能源技术和生产技术），其次是增加值，而导致完全能耗强度上升的因素是最终需求因素。从中短时期来看，出口拉高了交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度，而增加值、能源技术及进口大都降低了交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度，在1997-2002年，2002-2007年和2005-2007年期间，生产技术促使完全能耗强度下降，其余期间使完全能耗强度上升。最终消费变化在1995-1997年，2002-2007年，2005-2007年间导致完全能耗强度升高，而在1997-2002年，2002-2005年间促使完全能耗强度降低；而除1997-2002年外，在其他各区间，投资对完全能耗强度的效应正好与消费相反。以7-10年为周期分析，增加值、能源技术、生产技术、投资因素对完全能耗强度均起降低作用；出口和其他对完全能耗强度起增加作用；消费和进口的影响规律较不明显，但影响方向正好相反。（4）构建了完全能耗强度变动的非线性优化模型并对优化后的我国交通运输设备制造业完全能耗强度的变动情况进行了分析。研究表明：当不断调整行业结构、投资与消费系数、进口与出口系数时，完全能耗强度也随之变化。当我国交通运输设备制造业工业增加值达到34519.61亿元，汽车制造业、船舶制造业及其他交通运输设备制造业比重分别为58.97%、17.01%、24.02%，消费、投资、出口及进口系数分别为0.0598、0.3024、0.064、0.0648时，完全能耗强度达到最小值0.9307tce/万元，实现2015年完全能耗强度下降20%的目标。更多还原

【Abstract】 Transportation equipment manufacturing industry plays an outstanding role in theprocess of industrialization of a country or region. It is an important basic industry of nationaleconomy development. Since China’s reform and opening up, China’s transportationequipment manufacturing industry has already made considerable progress. But comparedwith developed countries, many problems still exist. For example, high energy consumptionaffects the sustainable development of the industry increasingly. Under current backgroundthat energy shortage and environmental pollution has become the main contradiction ofrestricting China’s economic and social sustainable development, to study the influencefactors, mechanism, effect and future tendency of energy intensity change of China’stransportation equipment manufacturing industry is very important.On the basis of the consumption object and supply source of energy, energy intensity isdivided into direct energy intensity and complete energy intensity. According to train ofthought of status quo study, mechanism study, optimization study and countermeasure study,this dissertation uses the wave theory, the wuli-shili-renli system methodology, vectorautoregressive model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, structuraldecomposition analysis, DEA and Malmquist index method, nonlinear optimization modeland so on to study energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry. Main contents of this dissertation are as follows:(1) It uses wuli-shili-renli system methodology to analyze influence factors of directenergy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry.According to the methodology connotation, wuli factors mainly include design, constructionand management technology; shili factors mainly include industry structure, energyconsumption structure, investment structure and import and export structure, etc.; renli factorsmainly include energy saving consciousness, energy policy, macro-economy and energysaving measures. Through the study, we can find that to lower direct energy intensity throughtechnical factors is most obvious; there is an obvious positive correlation between proportionof automobile manufacturing industry and direct energy intensity from1980to1995, butcertain hysteresis exists. Fluctuation relation of them from1996to2010is not obvious; descending proportion of coal consumption and rising proportion of other energy sources arehelpful to decrease direct energy intensity; Generally speaking, there is an inverse relationshipbetween foreign direct investment of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry and direct energy intensity change; MCI and BDI are helpful to decrease directenergy intensity and effect of MCI is bigger.(2) It uses vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variancedecomposition to study multi-factor dynamic shock response of direct energy intensity change.Results show that:①influence periods of proportion of automobile manufacturing industry,automobile manufacturing direct energy intensity, foreign direct investment, fixed-assetinvestment, proportion of coal consumption to direct energy consumption intensity of China’stransportation equipment manufacturing industry are longer, the influence lags are4years,10years,10years,8years,8years respectively. Influence lag of energy price to direct energyintensity is3years, which is shorter.②the importance sequence of influence factors for directenergy intensity of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry is: direct energyintensity itself>proportion of automobile manufacturing industry>foreign direct investment>structure of energy consumption> technical progress> fixed-asset investment>energy price.(3) Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) method is used to study deep motivation ofcomplete energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturing industry.Results show that: From the factor perspective of complete energy intensity change, the firstfactor to decrease complete energy intensity is technology (including energy technology andmanufacturing technology), the second factor is the added value. The factor to raise completeenergy intensity is the final demand. From short term, export raises complete energy intensity,but energy technology and import change can decrease complete energy intensity in most ofintervals; manufacturing technology change decreases complete energy intensity in1997-2002,2002-2007and2005-2007. It raises complete energy intensity in the rest ofintervals; Final consumption change raises complete energy intensity in1995-1997,2002-2007,2005-2007and decreases complete energy consumption intensity in1997-2002,2002-2005; In addition to1997-2002, investment effect on complete energy intensity isopposite to consumption effect on complete energy intensity. From7-10years period, addedvalue, energy technology, manufacturing technology, investment decrease complete energyintensity. But exports and other factors raise complete energy intensity; Influence laws of consumption and import are less obvious, but their impact directions are reversed.(4) Through nonlinear optimization model of complete energy intensity, the dissertationanalyzes complete energy intensity change of China’s transportation equipment manufacturingindustry after optimization. Research shows that: With all kinds of structure adjustment,complete energy intensity is also changing. When the added value of China’s transportationequipment manufacturing industry reaches3.451961trillion yuan, the proportions ofautomobile manufacturing, ship manufacturing and other transportation equipmentmanufacturing industry are58.97%,17.01%,24.02%. And when coefficients of consumption,investment, export and import are0.0598,0.3024,0.064,0.0648, complete energy intensitycan reaches0.9307tce/ten thousand yuan, which can achieve the goal of decreasing completeenergy intensity by20%in2015.更多还原