【作者】 王韶华；

【导师】 范德成；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工程大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 世界经济的快速发展，尤其是发展中国家以追求经济增长为单一目标，主要依赖资源的大量投入，其粗放型的经济增长方式，直接导致了经济效益差、资源利用效率低下、环境污染严重等问题的出现，造成了严重的资源浪费和生态破坏。经济与资源、经济与环境以及资源与环境之间的矛盾日益突出，给人类生存环境带来了一系列后果，其中较为严峻的是全球气候变化，它主要是由人类生产生活排放二氧化碳造成的。为应对气候变化，低碳经济这一可持续的经济发展模式被提出。低碳经济的驱动因素众多，其中能源结构优化作为促进经济和环境协调发展的政策选择，对实现碳强度目标的贡献潜力较大。基于此，本文以能源结构在调整过程中不断降低碳强度的最优化思想为主线，基于目标规划理论，从定性和定量角度研究能源结构对低碳经济的影响机理，通过能源结构的持续优化，促进低碳经济的发展。本文研究的主要内容包括以下六个部分：第一部分，能源结构对低碳经济的影响及作用机理研究。首先，界定了低碳经济和能源结构的概念；其次，通过文献回顾的方式提炼了低碳经济的影响因素；然后，利用通径分析方法研究能源结构对低碳经济的作用机理。第二部分，基于低碳经济的我国能源结构现状分析与评价。首先，结合低碳经济，对我国能源供给结构和能源消费结构的现状进行了分析；其次，综合运用粗糙集理论和AHP法从社会经济效益、能源规划效益和环境效益等三个维度构建了基于低碳经济的能源结构评价体系；然后根据低碳经济的要求对各指标设置分级标准，通过未确知测度评价模型对历年能源结构合理性进行聚类分析。第三部分，基于低碳经济的我国能源结构优化总体设计。在对我国能源战略和政策进行回顾与评估的基础上，结合基于低碳经济的能源结构的影响因素分析，提出了基于低碳经济的能源结构优化的原则、思路、目标、重点和任务等。第四部分，基于低碳经济的能源消耗结构优化模型构建及实证分析。首先，通过改进IPAT模型对我国基于低碳经济的能源消费进行情景预测；其次，以降低碳强度为目标，在满足经济增长、节能减排等目标的基础上，利用数学规划方法构建能源消耗结构优化模型；然后，对我国2009-2020年的能源消耗结构优化进行实证分析。第五部分，基于低碳经济的我国能源供给结构优化。首先，综合运用灰色预测法、趋势预测法和变权重组合预测法构建能源供给预测模型，预测我国能源供给结构；其次，在分析我国低碳能源发展潜力的基础上，对低碳能源的发展规模进行情景预测；然后，考虑节能和碳排放约束以及能源需求对能源供给结构进行优化。第六部分，基于低碳经济的我国能源结构优化的策略。根据基于低碳经济的能源结构优化的结果，提出基于低碳经济的我国能源结构优化的策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the process of industrialization speeding up, the contradiction between economicdevelopment and the resource as well as the environment has become increasingly prominent.Deterioration of the environment brought about a series of negative effects, such as globalwarming, desertification, etc. The greenhouse effect, especially, has been the serious threat tohuman survival. To response climate change and improve the situation of environmentdeterioration, the low-carbon economy mode is put forward. Low-carbon economycharacterized by low consumption, low emissions, low pollution, is the sustainable economicdevelopment model, the essence of which is changing energy use, improving energyefficiency and optimizing the energy structure, in use of technological progress andinstitutional innovation. So, this paper takes the optimization idea of reducing carbon intensitycontinuously in the process of energy adjustment, as the main line, and studies the influencemechanism of energy structure on low-carbon economy from the viewpoint of qualitative andquantitative, based on goal programming theory. The main content of this study includes sixparts as following:The first part mainly studies the influence factor and influence mechanism of low-carboneconomy. First of all, it defines energy and low-carbon economy. Secondly, the main factorsinfluencing the carbon emissions intensity are refined by reviewing the literature. Then, itcatches the influence mechanism specifically in use of the path analysis.The second part is the analysis and evaluation of China’s current situation of energystructure. First of all, considering the low carbon, it analyzes the current situation of energyconsumption structure and energy supply structure. Secondly, it establishes the optimizationdegree evaluation system of energy structure under low-carbon economy paradigm, includingsocial and economic benefits, energy planning benefits as well as environment benefits, by thetheory of Rough Set, combined with AHP. Then, it sets the grading standards, and carries oncomprehensive measurement and evaluation of multi-indexes for rationality of energystructure by unascertained measure evaluation model for1998-2010.The third part is the overall design of energy structure optimization based on low-carboneconomy. Based on the review and assessment of China’s energy strategy and policy, it putsforward the principle, direction, target, key and tasks of energy structure optimization basedon low-carbon economy.The fourth part studies optimization model construction of energy consumption structureto low-carbon and empirical analysis. First of all, it makes scenario prediction of energy consumption based on low carbon by the improved IPAT model. Secondly, taking reducingcarbon intensity as the single goal, considering targets of economic growth and carbonemissions reduction, itr uses goal programming method to build the optimization model ofenergy consumption structure, then makes the optimization simulation of energy consumptionstructure in2009-2020.The fifth part studied the optimization of energy supply structure based on low-carboneconomy. First of all, it makes scenario prediction of low carbon energy development scale,based on the analysis of China’s low carbon energy development potential. Secondly, it buildsthe forecasting model of energy supply in comprehensive use of grey forecasting, trendforecasting method and variable weight combination forecasting method, and predicts China’senergy supply structure. Then, the energy supply structure is adjusted to meet the constraint ofsaving energy and carbon emissions as well as energy demand.The last part is the optimization approaches and strategies of energy structure based onlow-carbon economy. Based on quantitative results and aualitative results above, theoptimization strategies of energy structure based on low-carbon economy are put forward.更多还原