【作者】 聂洪光；

【导师】 张少杰；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 近几年来，随着中国经济的快速发展，中国能源生产已经无法满足日益增加的能源消费需求。2012年中国对煤炭、石油和天然气的消费量均居世界前列，对煤炭的消费量更是达到了世界煤炭消费总量的近一半水平，而同期中国能源生产总量却远低于能源消费总量，特别是石油，中国石油消费的一半以上来自于进口，可见中国能源消费缺口较大。另外，根据BP能源年鉴中国化石能源数据，中国煤碳资源的储量为世界第三位，而消费量则为世界第一位，储采比为31；中国石油资源的储量为世界第14位，而消费量为世界第二位，储采比为11.4；中国天然气资源的储量为世界第13位，而消费量为世界第4位，储产比为28.9。可见，中国煤碳、石油和天然气三种化石能源的均存在开采和消费过度的问题。如果未来中国化石能源没有大规模新探明储量，那么中国必须通过控制能源消费的增长并试图降低能源消费来解决能源供需矛盾问题。本文应用因素分解分析方法，基于1997-2010年的中国经济增长和能源消费数据，对中国能源消费增长的原因进行了深入研究。在研究过程中，本文根据能源消费特点和所适用研究方法的不同，将中国能源消费划分为商用能源消费和民用能源消费分别进行研究。在研究中国商用能源消费问题方面，本文采用结构分解分析方法，将1997-2007年期间中国商用能源消费增长分解为能源强度效用、里昂惕夫效用、产业结构效用、增长结构效用和经济增长效用五大驱动因素，研究表明：经济增长是中国商用能源消费增长的主要原因；里昂惕夫效用对中国能源消费增长的推动作用是由于中间产出比重的提高造成的，进一步分析，本文认为部分产业的产能过剩是中国商用能源消费增长的重要原因；产业结构的变动表现为能源密集型产业发展较快，产业结构的能源密集化促使中国商用能源消费量持续增长；增长结构效用是指投资、消费和出口在中国经济增长中所占比重，研究表明消费比重的降低和投资与出口比重的上升对于中国商用能源消费的增长起到了持续的推动作用。在影响中国商用能源消费的储多因素中，只有能源强度效用对中国商用能源消费起到了抑制作用，并且作用效果持续、明显，进一步分析表明：技术进步是中国能源强度持续下降的主要原因。另外，在对中国商用能源消费进行结构分解分析的基础上，本文又应用情景分析方法对中国未来十年的能源消费进行了预测，结果表明：如果未来影响中国商用能源消费的驱动因素不进行有效调整，仍保持原有趋势继续发展，那么到2017年中国能源消费总量将达到53.24亿吨标准煤，为2007年该数字的2.13倍。而如果未来中国真正实现经济发展转型，产能过剩得到有效控制、产业结构进行合理调整、投资比重下降消费比重上升、经济增长实际速度控制在5%的水平，那么到2017年中国能源消费总量将达到16.93亿吨标准煤，为2007年该数字的67.8%。在研究中国民用能源消费问题方面，本文采用指数分解分析方法，将2002-2010年期间中国民用能源消费增长分解为能源结构效用、人口增长效用、住房面积效用和家用电器能源需求效用四种驱动因素。研究结果表明：家用电器能源需求和人均住房面积的增加是中国民用能源消费增长的主要驱动因素，人口的增长对中国民用能源消费增长的促进作用有限但非常稳定，能源结构变动对中国民用能源消费增长的作用很小，但同样是正向作用。首先，能源结构变动主要体现在煤的消费比重下降和生物质能源的消费比重上升，由于生物质能源的燃烧效率远低于煤炭，所以能源消费总量会有所上升。其次，中国人口稳定的增长必将导致中国民用能源消费持续增长。第三，人均住房面积的增长必将造成取暖、制冷、照明等能源消费的增长。最后，家用电器能源需求不断增长的原因在于家用电器保有量的不断增长、使用时长的不断增加。根据本文预测结果，到2020年，中国家用电器保有量将会持续增长，但是随着中国家用电器保有量饱和度的提高，中国家用电器保有量的增长速度会有所放缓；另外，随着技术的不断进步，中国家用电器的单位能耗会有所下降，如果中国家用电器的单位能耗每年降低2%，则中国家用电器能源消费仍然会保持增长，只有当中国家用电器的单位能耗每年降低超过3.45%时，到2020年以前，中国家用电器能源消费量才会有所下降。最后，本文在对中国商用能源和民用能源消费增长原因进行分析的基础上，从提高能源使用效率、减少产能过剩、优化产业结构、调整增长结构、控制经济增长、改善能源结构和减少家用电能耗等方面提出了解决中国能源消费增长过快的政策建议。在提高能源效率方面，应制定合理的能源价格体制，鼓励企业进行技术创新，从而实现减少能源浪费、提高能源效率的目标；在减少产能过剩方面，应增加消费、减少投资，鼓励竞争、优胜劣汰，严控进入标准、发布产业信息；在优化和调整产业结构方面，应该优先发展能源密集程度较低的产业，重点发展轻工业，根据区域特点发展战略性新兴产业；在增加消费控制投资方面，应该提高居民整体收入水平，逐步完善社会保障体系，缩小居民收入差距；在经济增长方面，应适当放缓经济增长速度，平衡经济增长与节约能源和环境保护之间的关系。在优化民用能源结构方面，应对目前占中国民用能源最大比重的生物质能进行转化，对秸秆等生物质能进行热解、气化和液化等处理，将生物质能转化为沼气、生物乙醇和生物柴油等能源形式。在控制家用电器能源消耗方面，应通过节能补贴等政策鼓励企业生产更为节能源家用电器，同时鼓励消费者购买和使用更多的节能产品；调整现有以旧换新政策，加速高能耗旧家用电器更新换代，提高中国家用电器总体能效水平。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of China recently, the energy consumption grows quickly and hasexceeded the energy production capacity in China. In2012, the consumption of coal, oil andnatural gas in China is much more than that in the most countries in the world, especiallythe consumption of coal in China is almost half of the total coal consumption is the world.At the same time, the energy production is not enough for energy consumption in China,especially half of the oil consumption is imported from other countries. In addition,according to “BP Statistical Review of World Energy”, the reserve of coal in China is thethird most in the world, while the consumption of coal in China is the most in the world,and the reserve-production ratio is31. The rank of oil reserve of China is Number14in theworld, while the rank of oil consumption of China is Number2in the world, and thereserve-production ratio is11.4. The natural gas reserve of China ranks13in the world,while the natural gas consumption of China ranks4in the world, and the reserve-productionratio is28.9. Apparently the energy consumption in China has exceeded the capacity ofenergy supply in China. Therefore, if there is no new finding of energy in China in thefuture, we have to slow down the increase of energy consumption or even to decrease theenergy consumption in China.Using decomposition analysis methods, based on the data from1997to2010, weanalysed the reasons for the increase of energy consumption in China by dividing the wholeenergy consumption into commercial energy consumption and residential energyconsumption.Using structural decomposition analysis, we decomposed the commercial energyconsumption during1997-2007in to five driving forces consisting of energy intensity,Leontief, sector structure, demand allocation (the shares of consumption, investments andexport in final demand) and final demand effects. The results show that the final demand effect was the most important driving force behind the increase of commercial energyconsumption in China. Leontief effect increased commercial energy consumption in Chinaby increasing the portion of intermediate output. By further analysis we propose that overcapacity in some sectors is the important reason behind the increase of commercial energyconsumption. Sector structure changed toward energy intensive structure, which increasedcommercial energy consumption in China. Demand allocation effect indicated that theincrease of investment and the decline of consumption increases the commercial energyconsumption. Among all driving forces, the energy intensity effect is the only one whichplayed negative role on the increase of commercial energy consumption in China.According to further analysis, technological progress is the main reason behind the declineof energy intensity. Furthermore, based on the analysis above, we undertook a scenarioanalysis on commercial energy consumption of China in the next decade. The resultsshowed us that: if the driving forces behind the commercial energy consumption keepconstant trend as before, the commercial energy consumption of China in2017will reach5.324billion tce,2.13times of that in2007. However, if the economic transition works, theproblem of over capacity was solved, the sector structure was shifted, the demand allocationwas changed toward consumption intensive, and the pace of economic growth was limitedbelow5percent, the commercial energy consumption of China in2017will be reduced to1.693billion,67.8percent of that in2007.Adopting index decomposition analysis method, we decomposed the increase ofresidential energy consumption of China in the period2002-2010into four driving factorscomprising changes from appliances, change in floor space, population and energy mix.According to our results, the increase in energy-using appliances is the biggest contributorto the increase of residential energy consumption during2002-2010but the effect declinesover time, due to energy efficiency improvements in those appliances. The second mostimportant contributor is floor space per capita. Of the four factors, population is the moststable factor and energy mix is the least important factor. Firstly, the changes of energy mixis due to the increase of the biomass consumption and the decline of coal consumption.Secondly, the constant growth of the population of China would keep the residential energyconsumption increasing. Thirdly, the increase of house space per capita would use moreresidential energy for heating, cooling and lighting. Fourthly, the increase of electricity usefor household appliances is due to the constant increase of the ownership of household appliances and the extension of the use time of household appliances. According to ourprediction, until2020the ownership of household appliances will continue increasing,though the pace of the increase will slow down along with the increasing saturation. Inaddition, due to the technological progress in China, the energy efficiency of the householdappliances will be improved year after year. If the efficiency of appliances was improved by2%each year, the electricity use for appliances will keep on increasing until2020; unlessthe efficiency of appliances was improved more than3.45%each year, the electricity use forappliances won’t be decline before2020.Based on the analysis above, we gave some suggestions to policy makers in theperspective of improving energy efficiency, reducing overcapacity, optimizing sectorstructure, adjusting demand allocation, controlling economic grows, improving energy mixand decreasing energy demand from appliances. To improve energy efficiency in China, thegovernment should develop a rational energy pricing system, encourage the enterprises toconduct technological innovation, which is benefit to reducing energy waste and improvingenergy efficiency. To reduce overcapacity, the government should increase consumption andreduce investment, encourage competition and eliminate backward capacity, control theentry criteria strictly, and publish industrial information. To optimize sector structure, thegovernment should give priority to the development of non-energy intensive sectors, focuson light industry, and develop strategic emerging industries according to regionalcharacteristics. With regard to demand allocation, the government should improve residents’overall income level, improve the social security system, and narrow the income gap. Interms of economics growth, the government should slow down the economic growth rate,balance the relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and environmentprotection. In the perspective of residential energy structure, the government shouldencourage the conversion of biomass, such as pyrolysis, gasification or liquefaction,converting the biomass into biogas, bio-ethanol, bio-diesel or other form of energy. Withregard to energy use from household appliances, the government should encourage theenterprises to produce energy saving household appliances through energy saving subsidyand other related policies, meanwhile encourage the consumers to buy and use moreenergy-efficient products, adapt the current trade policy and accelerate the updating ofenergy-consuming appliances, then improve the energy efficiency of household appliancesin China.更多还原