【作者】 王建彬；

【导师】 罗云；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学（北京） ， 安全技术及工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 钻井技术是石油行业进行勘探生产的关键技术，但在钻井过程中会存在井涌、井漏、井塌、卡钻、钻具失效等安全问题。因此对于钻井工作者来说，必须捕捉和利用各种技术信息，建立钻井工程事故预警系统，及时做出有针对性的决策，把可能发生的事故损失降到最小。本文针对石油钻井施工中常见的8种钻井事故，结合录井施工的特点和专业性做了综合的数据分析和研究。通过各种钻井事故案列的分析，发现由于录井施工致因模型不清，导致预警系统的针对性不强，录井工程参数的信息信号没有进行较好过滤处理，因而在预测预报事故过程中存在误报、漏报的现象；录井过程信息参数的技术过滤技术以及无缝融合需要完善；录井预报参数多达25个甚至更多，各种参数的相关性以及敏感性需要重点研究等。本文在钻井工程风险预警方面，创新的提出了在各种参数条件下综合模型的预警技术。通过对录井各种参数的整合，进行群分析，去伪存真，找出与事故高度相关的特征参量，在灰靶理论的基础上针对钻井事故的特点建立钻井过程的事故风险预警模型，提高了对于钻井工程事故预报的准确率，从而实现石油钻井系统安全水平的实时风险预控。更多还原

【Abstract】 Drilling technology is key role of exploration and development in oilindustry. However, there are many risks such as the risk of wells flow, the risk oflost circulation, well fall risk, sticking risk and drilling tools damaged in drillingprogress. Therefore, the drilling technician should capture and make use of allkinds of parameter information to build the early-warning system and maketimely the pertinently decision which can reduce the losses of the accident.This paper does a comprehensive data analysis and research on the normal8accident in drilling program and reference characteristics involved mud logging.Through research on all kinds of drilling accidents, this phenomenon have beenfound that misinform lies in mud logging abnormal forecast because theearly-warning system is unefficient and the mud logging parameters is notfiltrated and dealt with. The filtrated technology of mud logging parameter andnon-gap combination need to be improved; More than25mud logging real timeparameters and the relevant and sensitive relation along all kinds of parametersneed to be critical research. This paper innovational does a early warningtechnology comprehensive model based all kinds of parameters. Throughintegrating all relevant parameters, we can capture the characteristic parameterswith cluster analysis to build the early warning technology model based on greytarget theory by which the drilling accidents forecast ratio will be enhanced andreal-time control on the safety level of oil drilling system will come true.更多还原