【作者】 孙梦水；

【导师】 刘春成；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 “城中村”是中国城市化过程中一个普遍问题。过去,人们普遍将其视为“城市病”的一种,在传统学科的研究方式下,“城中村”问题的各个侧面都被划分给相应领域的学者进行研究。随着研究的深入,人们又将“城中村”的侧而分解得更加细碎,不断地对问题做剖面和投影,甚至使问题背离了其本质。本文认为,“城中村”是具有主动性和适应性的复杂适应系统,它更类似于“混沌边缘”,只有在复杂系统理论的视角研究“城中村”问题,才有可能在“城中村”认识上有所突破,进而指导实践。本文以下从四个方面展开“城中村”发展的系统分析。第一,从动态的角度梳理“城中村”发展的阶段与路径,并结合从北京市“城中村”发展实际及前人的研究,从一般路径、主流路径、就地高级化和特殊路径等四类路径对典型的“城中村”形成与发展进行了梳理。从调研数据和文献研究出发,对现阶段北京市“城中村”的数量与规模、空间分布、产业与就业、基础设施与公共服务现状进行分析。应对“城中村”形成与发展中出现的种种问题,本文认为,系统思考是必不可少的思维模式。“城中村”的形成过程中,存在“目标侵蚀”、“公地悲剧”、“竞争升级”、“增长极限”、“负担转嫁”等“系统基模”所反映的系统常见症结,应对这些问题,政府必须认识到“城中村”是一个复杂系统,且存在“反应迟缓的调节回路”,因而切忌“饮鸩止渴”。而对于已经形成的“城中村”,可以考虑诱导其利用“富者愈富”的系统发展模式突破瓦片经济瓶颈。第二,应用复杂适应系统理论对“城中村”系统进行解析。首先是从复杂性的来源和隐喻的角度对“城中村”系统进行分析；接着从霍兰提出的“主体”和围绕该概念的“聚集”、“标识”、“流”、“非线性”、“多样性”、“内部模型”、“积木块”等七个概念出发,解析“城中村”系统的基本特性和机制；最后,根据“刺激-反应”模型,回声模型和积木块的思想,提出为“城中村”形成与发展过程建模的两条思路。第三,根据积木块的思想,将北京市城市发展系统下的“城中村”系统解构为“城市规划”、“流动人口”、“村庄发展”和“政府治理”四个积木块(子系统)。并逐一对这些模块在“城中村”形成与发展过程中的模式、机制进行历史回顾、解释,并反省其存在的突出问题。第四,建立“城中村”发展的系统动力学模型并应用Vensim软件进行仿真,结论是1.若短期内大规模拆除城中村且无廉租房建设,一定时期内将很难实现城市廉租住房的供需平衡；2.城市功能扩展区城中村的快速拆除,将使“城中村”快速向城市发展新区和生态涵养区蔓延；3.政府廉租房能够逐步取代现有“城中村”,并遏制新的“城中村”形成及其向外蔓延的趋势；4.在政府提供廉租住房的条件下,无论直接清除已有的成熟“城中村”,还是通过规划手段控制农村发展为潜在“城中村”和成熟城中村,均能起到控制“城中村”数量,并抑制其城市发展新区和生态涵养区扩散的趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban Villages is a common problem in China’s urbanization. In the past, people generally regarded it as a type of "urban disease". In the traditional research mode, all sides of the Urban Village problem would have been allocated to the scholars in the corresponding research field. Over and over again, scholars made decomposition of the problem as the research moves along. By doing this, they even make the problem deviates from its essence. In this paper, we viewed Urban Villages as a complex adaptive system, which has adaptability and is more similar to the "edge of chaos". Because of that, we propose studying Urban Villages’ issues from the perspective of complex systems theory. Only in this way, could we make a breakthrough in understanding of the issue, and guide the practice.We analyzed Urban Villages’ development from the following aspects.First, we analyzed urban villages" development stage and paths from a dynamic perspective, based on the actual development of urban villages’ in Beijing and previous research, we summarized four typical paths:the general path, the mainstream path, the upgrade path and the special paths. Based on the survey data and literature, we analyzed urban villages’ in Beijing from the aspects of number and size, spatial distribution, industry and employment, infrastructure and public services. The paper argues that "systems thinking" is essential mode of thinking. During its formation and development, urban village faced the problems which described as systems archetypes, such as "target erosion","tragedy of the commons","competitive upgrade","limits to growth" and "shift the burden". To addressing these problems, the Government must recognize the "Villages" is a complex system, and because there is a "slow response regulation loop" in this system, therefore we should not "harm than good." As for the already formed urban villages, government could consider inducing the "rich get richer" model to break to bottlenecks of their development.Second, in this paper we applied the Complex Adaptive System (CAS) theory to analyze urban village system. We point out the source of complexity and the metaphor of urban village. And we utilized Holland’s concepts,"subject" and "aggregation","tagging","flow","nonlinearity","diversity","internal models","building blocks", to explain urban villages’ basic features and mechanisms as a CAS. And according to the "stimulus-response" model, echo model and the idea of building blocks we proposed two ways of modeling urban villages’ development.Third, decomposed the Beijing Urban Village development system into four "module"(or "subsystem"):"urban planning","floating population","village development" and "governance". And analyzed the patterns and mechanisms within these four modules during the formation and development of Urban Village, and made historical reviews, interpretations and reflections.Finally, established a system dynamics model of urban villages in Beijing and made simulation using Vensim. The conclusions are:1. if government removed urban village in a large-scale and in a short-term, the balance of low-rent housing’s supply and demand will be difficult to achieve.2. by doing that, urban villages will quickly spread to urban development new zone and ecological conservation area.3. Government’s low-rent housing could gradually replace the existing "Villages" and avoid new urban village to form and spread outwards.4. by providing low-rent housing, government could apply the method of direct removal of existing mature "Villages", or strict urban-rural planning, both of them are effective in restrain urban villages’ formation,development and spreading.更多还原