【作者】 田国英；

【导师】 臧日宏；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 自1982年以来,关于“三农问题”的14个“一号文件”,都把发展农村金融摆在一个非常重要的位置。党的十七届三中全会更是明确指出“农村金融是现代农村经济的核心”。这说明,党和政府把发展农村金融作为解决我国“三农问题”的一个重要手段。实际发展经验证实,一个国家或者地区金融发达程度与当地的经济发展水平密切相关。金融市场越发达,市场配置资源的效率越高。而衡量一个地区金融市场的发达程度,借贷市场的发展程度是一个非常好的指标。因此研究一个国家或者地区金融市场的发展，对其借贷市场的研究是一个先导或者基础性研究,对借贷市场的研究主要通过对市场上各经济主体的借贷行为来实现。基于此,对我国农户借贷行为的研究属于农村金融市场的一个基础性研究,它对政府适时调整农村金融政策、制定农村经济发展规划和促进农民收入有着重要的理论与现实意义,这正是本文的研究意义所在。本文在对农户贷款收入实证分析的基础上,利用行为经济学的最新研究成果,依据认知偏差理论、心理账户以及双曲线贴现理论等相关理论,从农户基本需求出发,对农户借贷行为进行了多角度、全方位的全新阐释,并据此提出了相应的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论有三个方面：(1)农户借贷行为中存在明显的启发式偏差问题。启发式作为一种人类有效认知的工具,对我们更快更好的认识这个世界有非常显著的作用。但由于人类大脑思维固有的缺陷,使得我们无法有效的使用这一认知工具。作为不确定条件下决策的一个实例——农户的贷款决策就很容易陷入启发式陷阱。囿于人类共有的认知偏差,以在共变与折损原则的影响下,由于白我保护动机与基本归因偏差的影响。多数农户会高估白己的能力,低估贷款背后存在的各类风险,进而盲目做出贷款决策,最终导致经营失败,使得整个家庭陷入堃=困境。(2)在心理账户影响下,农户借贷资金用途与借贷渠道互相影响。农户的借贷资金分为生产性借贷与生活性借贷。其借贷渠道分为止规金融机构与非止规金融机构两类。心理账户认为来自于不同渠道,投向不同用途的同等数量货币对农户白身具有不同的效用。基于这一理论,农户不同用途的借款倾向于从不同的金融机构获得。借贷渠道也在很大程度上影响农户的借贷用途。正规金融机构主要提供农户的生产性借贷,而其生活性借贷主要从非正规金融机构获得。(3)现阶段农村金融市场发展对农户收入的促进作用有限,盲目增加农户的流动性会降低农村经济发展活力。盲目的扩大农村贷款规模,增加农户的流动性,不仅对农户增收无益,反而可能会降低农户未来收入增长的潜力,使得农户终身福利受损,农村经济增长乏力,最终使得农村经济社会偏离可持续发展之路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up, the Party central committee and the government has taken rural financial market development very seriously. During the third plenary session of the17th central committee of Chinese communist party, it pointed out more clearly that "the rural finance is the core of modern rural economy ". The actual development has also proven that a national or regional financial development level and the local economic development are closely related. The more developed is the financial market, the more efficient is the allocation of the market resource. The development level of the credit market is a excellent indicator for the development of the regional financial market. So study on the credit market is the basic and piloted prerequisite of the research on the national and regional financial market development. The study on the credit market is mainly based on borrowing behavior between the respective economic entities. Due to this, we could take the study on the household borrowing behavior as the basic study on the rural financial market, and this behavior has important meaning for the adjustment of the rural financial policy and the planning of the rural economic development.This paper exploits the newest research achievements and the cognitive biases, mental accounting, generalized hyperbolas, etc, and based on the demand of the rural households, to make comprehensive illustration on household borrowing behavior. Also, this paper proposes the corresponding advices and counterplans.This paper covers three mains aspects:(1) Distinct heuristic bias presented in borrowing behavior of rural households.Heuristic method, as an effective cognitive tool, has significant effect on world cognition. Due to the inherent defects of human brains, we can not use this tool with high effectiveness. As a decision example under uncertainty conditions credit decisions by rural hoseholds are prone to stuck into heuristic traps. Many rural households will overrated their abilites because of the cognitive bias on covariant and depreciation and the basic attribution bias, and for the purpose of self-protection motivation. The will make credit decisions aimlessly based on their underestimations on loan risks, resulting in failures in operations and leading the families into troubles.(2) Affected by the mental accounting, the use of the loan money and the source of the loan influence each other. The mental accounting theory assumes that the equivalent currency from different source and for different uses has different utility on rural households. Based on this theory, the loan for different uses is inclined to be from different financial agencies. The source of the memory has great influence on the uses. The productive loan mainly comes from formal agencies, and the living loan mainly comes from informal agencies.(3) The existing development of rural financial market has limited effect on the increase of the rural households’income, and the pell-mell liquidity of rural households reduces the rural economic development vitality. Pell-mell expansion of the rural loan scale, the rural households liquidity has no advantageous effect on the income growth, and can limit the potential increase of the future income, thereby impairing the lifelong welfare of the rural households and the increase of the rural economy, ultimately making the rural economic society deviate from the path of sustainable development.更多还原