【作者】 曾永泉；

【导师】 郑杭生； 江立华；

【作者基本信息】 华中师范大学 ， 社会学， 2011， 博士

【摘要】 关注风险与和谐是人类社会的永恒话题。目前,处于急剧社会转型期的中国也正面临着诸多社会风险的威胁与挑战。加强社会风险预警,建构一套科学实用并符合中国国情的社会风险预警指标体系乃是当前摆在人们面前的重大理论问题和现实问题。只有建构社会风险预警指标体系,才能适时监控社会风险的发展状态,及时发布各种社会风险警情,尤其是及时发布那些重大社会风险警报,从而为政府部门制定相关政策提供参考依据,并动员社会力量将风险控制在社会承受力范围之内,以防患于未然。由此可见,社会风险预警指标体系建构是建设和谐社会,实现社会良性运行与协调发展的必然选择。基于此,本论文在国内外相关理论的指导下,分析转型期的重大社会风险源,探讨指标体系建构的结构模型,并依据科学方法建构一套社会风险预警指标体系及各级指标的权重,将指标体系应用在转型期社会风险的综合评价中。论文关注的主要问题有：建构社会风险预警指标体系需要从哪些理论中吸取养分,如何将抽象的理论转化为具体的指标,采用什么样的方法选择指标并确定指标的权重,如何进行风险的综合评价?总之,建构社会风险预警指标体系,科学理论的指导和方法的应用是两大关键。基于此,本文的主要研究内容包括：导论。主要说明本研究的缘起和意义,检视和评论国内外已有的研究,界定了主要概念,并交待了行文逻辑以及研究方法。第一章,研究社会风险预警的理论基础,讨论风险社会理论、社会冲突理论等在社会风险预警指标体系建构中所具有的启发意义。第二章,分析转型期中国社会风险源,为社会风险预警指标体系的建构提供现实依据。首先探讨社会转型与社会风险的内在逻辑,揭示工业化、城市化、市场化和全球化与社会风险的关联；其次,根据转型期中国社会发展的现状,探讨和研究当前主要社会风险的基本现状,尤其关注的是与民生息息相关的、结构性和制度性的各种风险,包括人口风险、经济生活风险、社会生活风险、政治生活风险、文化心理风险和自然生态风险；最后,分析转型时期社会风险具有的复合性、结构性、扩散性、多发性和高危性等特征,从而再现了转型期中国的社会风险景象。第三章,研究社会风险预警指标体系建构中的结构模型。社会指标体系建构的过程实质上就是从理论到模型再到指标的逐步操作化的过程。结构模型将抽象的理论和具体的指标联接起来,从而为下一步指标体系的设计提供有力的理论支撑和方法指导。本章提出了转型时期社会风险景象图、社会风险预警指标体系建构的三维图,详细分析了社会风险预警指标体系建构的时间维结构模型和逻辑维结构模型。第四章,建构转型期中国社会风险预警指标体系。这是本文研究的重点,主要讨论指标体系建构的基本原则和出发点,根据专家咨询方法和社会统计数据分析,设计包含六个一级指标、十九个二级指标、四十八个三级指标的社会风险预警指标体系的基本框架,并对具体指标含义作出解释。第五章,确定社会风险预警指标体系各级指标的权重。在专家咨询的基础上,应用聚类分析、幂法、相似系数加权等一系列技术手段,将专家的主观判断和统计技术结合起来,将定性研究和定量研究结合起来,从而保证了权重确定的科学性。第六章,综合评价转型期中国社会风险状况。根据本文建立的社会风险预警指标体系,收集各种统计数据和调查数据,将预警指标进行无量纲化变换并构造社会风险综合评价模型后,对当前中国的社会风险状况做全面的评估,计算出总体风险指标值和各二级指标的风险值。第七章,结论及展望。主要对本研究中所涉及的有关理论和方法问题所作的全面归纳及提升,并在此基础上提出有待进一步探讨的问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Concerning about risks and harmony is an eternal topic of the human society. At present, China is during the critical period of social transformation and economic transition, facing many threats and challenges of social risks. How to strengthen the early-warning of social risks, to construct a scientific and practical social risk early-warning indicator system consistent with China’s conditions are currently the major theoretical and practical issues which people are confronted with. Only through the construction of index systems, people can accurately identify the social risks, timely monitor the status of social risks, master the degree and energies of social risks, promptly release the alarms of risks, thus providing reference for risk management decision-making and implementation of risk management practices of government departments, and accordingly carrying out certain government interventions and social actions to control risks within the scope of social tolerance. Consequently, social risk early-warning indicator system is an inevitable choice to build a harmonious society and realize the benign operation and coordinated development of the society. Based on the ideas, this paper is to analyze the major social risk sources during the transition period under the guidance of domestic and foreign relevant theories, discuss the structure models of index system construction, and construct a set of social risk early-warning indicator systems based on scientific methods, which can be used in the comprehensive assessments of social risks in the transformation period. The research is not only a major issue of current academic studies but also urgent for social management practice areas, being attached great theoretical values and practical significance.Major concerns of this paper include:Which theories does the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system need to draw nutrients; how to turn abstract theories into concrete indicators; what kind of methods can be adopted to select indicators and determine the weights; how to conduct comprehensive evaluations of risks? In short, construction of social risk early-warning indicator system associated with guidance of scientific theories and applications of methods are the two keys.Accordingly, the main contents include:Introduction. Mainly to explain the origins and significance of this study, review and comment on existent research domestically and abroad, define the key concepts and interpret the language logic and research methods.The first chapter looks into the theoretical basis of social risk warning, discusses risk society theory, social conflict theory and social anomie theory’s instructive significance in the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. The second chapter will analyze Chinese society risk sources in transition period, providing realistic basis for the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. Firstly, discuss the internal logic of social transformation and social risks, revealing the relationship of industrialization, urbanization, marketization, globalization and social risks. Secondly, according to the development status of Chinese society in transition period, explore and study the basic status of key social risks currently, in particular, concerning about structural and institutional risks linked with people’s livelihood, which includes population risks, risks of economic life, social life, and political life, cultural and psychological risks and ecological risks. Besides, it is worth noting that this chapter studies risks of social life from the aspect of the entities of social life. Finally, analyze the compound, structural, diffuse, multiple, high-risk and other characteristics of social risks in transition period, which depicts China’s social risk picture during transformation period.Chapter three will discuss the structural models of the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system. The process of the construction of social indicator system is essentially the gradual operation process from theories to models and then to indicators. Structural models combine abstract theories and specific indicators, so as to provide strong theoretical support and methodological guidance for further designation of indicator systems. This chapter proposes social risk scene in transition period, three-dimensional map of construction of social risk early-warning indicator system, analyzing time-dimensional structure models and logic structure models of the construction of social risk early-warning indicator system in details.Chapter four constructs social risk early-warning indicator system of Chinese society in transition period. This is the focus of this paper, focusing on the basic principles and starting points of indicator system construction, designing the basic framework of social risk early-warning indicator system which consists of six primary indicators, nineteen secondary indicators and forty-eight third-level indicators on the basis of expert consultation methods and social statistics data analysis, and explaining the meanings of specific indicators.Chapter five will determine the weights of indicators of different levels of social risk early-warning indicator system. Relying on expert advice, adopt a series of technical means such as cluster analysis, power method, weighted similarity coefficient to combine expert’s subjective judgments and statistical techniques as well as qualitative and quantitative research, thus ensuring the scientificity of determination of weights.Chapter six comprehensively evaluates the risk situations of the Chinese society in transition period. According to the social risk early-warning indicator system established in this paper, collect various statistical data and survey data, make dimensionless transformation of early-warning indicators and construct comprehensive evaluation models of social risks, to do comprehensive assessments of the current situations of China’s society risks, and to calculate the overall risk index values and the values of risks of secondary indicators.Chapter seven is the conclusion part. Mainly to make a comprehensive induction and promotion of related theoretical and methodological issues involved in this study, and on this basis, propose questions to be further explored.更多还原