经济林产业形象遮蔽的风险管理

【作者】 刘轩；

【导师】 叶萌； 胡庭兴；

【作者基本信息】 四川农业大学 ， 森林培育学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 经济林产业化程度高、关联产品市场美誉度好、品牌效应突出、与经济林相关的主题林业观光旅游开发程度好、市场营销与宣传意识领先的行政区域将在消费者中具有突出的经济林产业形象,从而遮蔽了经济林产业化程度较低、关联产品市场美誉度较差、品牌效应一般、与经济林相关的主题林业观光旅游开发较滞后、市场营销与宣传意识较落后的地区在消费者中的形象,导致后者产业的竞争力受到限制。形象遮蔽(或称“屏蔽”)的研究目前仅集中于旅游地形象遮蔽的研究,其属于旅游规划学研究的前沿领域。该理论起源于国内,国外则未见专门涉及旅游地形象遮蔽研究的文献报道。国内外文献检索的结果表明,有关经济林产业形象遮蔽现象的研究尚未有文献报道,也未有关花椒产业形象遮蔽的相关文献报道,更没有关于形象遮蔽风险的研究报道。越西县属四川省凉山州,史载所产花椒远在北宋时就曾进贡,因而被称之为“贡椒”。由于越西贡椒的悠久历史和优良品质,当地政府提出打造大凉山越西贡椒产业。尽管如此,北距越西100公里左右的汉源,其贡椒历史更为悠久,并且主栽品种与越西一致,均为“正路”和“大红袍”。汉源贡椒在四川为道地产品,市场销售的花椒多冠以“汉源贡椒”之名,销售价格高于其他产地花椒,“汉源贡椒”实际已成为品牌。汉源县在贡椒品牌打造、贡椒产业形象建设、贡椒产业文化建设以及产业链建设等方面明显先于越西,并且,汉源县在花椒系列产品的加工、龙头企业的培育与带动能力建设、贡椒系列产品市场知名度与美誉度、品牌建设力度、产业历史文化挖掘力度等方面明显优于越西。换言之,汉源贡椒产业的综合开发程度明显好于越西,即越西处于汉源贡椒产业的阴影之下。由此可见,由于汉源贡椒品种栽培的广域性、较高的市场认可度和超前的产业发展,导致了越西贡椒产业受到了汉源的“形象遮蔽”。花椒属于经济林,但是目前传统的林业产业经济学、森林资源经济学理论并不能有效分析并解决当前越西贡椒产业面临的“形象遮蔽”问题。因此,本文以现有的旅游地形象遮蔽理论为基础,结合风险管理理论,对旅游地形象遮蔽理论在经济林产业上应用的可行性,适合性作了深入的论证,构建了经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的理论体系,并以越西贡椒产业为例,分析了越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的发生机制,并在此基础上运用故障树分析法对其风险进行了系统识别,构建了越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的评价指标体系,并对其进行了详细的风险原始值测量；在此基础上,基于TOPSIS对越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险进行了管理优先度评价,并应用MLP神经网络对其进行了综合评价。基于风险评价结果,最后构建了越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽的应对机制。主要结论如下：(1)旅游地形象遮蔽与经济林产业形象遮蔽的相关性本文研究发现旅游地形象遮蔽与经济林产业形象遮蔽具有较大的相关性,将旅游地形象遮蔽理论用于经济林产业形象遮蔽的研究是符合经济林产业的内在属性和功能的。其主要原因有两点：第一,旅游地形象遮蔽与经济林产业形象遮蔽均涉及主体、客体、介体,并且首因效应和类化原则的认知规律均通过主体发生,旅游地形象遮蔽与经济林产业形象遮蔽的形成在本质上是一致的；第二,经济林产业的观光属性与游憩功能决定了经济林产业形象也可以包含旅游地形象,反之,亦然。因此,经济林的游憩观光属性与功能就内在的与旅游的属性与功能保持一致。(2)经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的理论基础研究①关于经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的概念研究结论本文以逻辑学关于概念的理论为依据,以旅游地形象遮蔽概念为基础,界定了经济林产业形象遮蔽、经济林产业形象遮蔽风险这两种概念的内涵、外延,并详细研究了经济林产业形象遮蔽、经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的特征。本研究还采用了逻辑学中有关概念间相互关系的理论,发现形象遮蔽与旅游地形象遮蔽、经济林产业形象遮蔽以及经济林产业形象遮蔽风险等3种概念间相互关系也为相容关系,外延部分重合。因此,进一步证实了旅游地形象遮蔽理论与经济林产业形象遮蔽理论具有较高的相关性。②关于经济林产业形象遮蔽的发生机制研究的结论基于旅游地形象遮蔽的发生机制,分析了经济林产业形象遮蔽的发生机制,即受首因效应和类化原则的认知规律的共同作用,相关受众(消费者、营销人员、项目评审专家、与产业化项目审批、管理、验收相关的政府官员等)会感知到不同行政区域的同一经济林木产业化综合开发程度的优劣差异,从而形成对不同行政区域经济林产业形象的优劣定位。基于必然性与偶然性、复杂性与认识论的哲学范畴,发现风险主要来源于三类：必然性风险的发生是由于必然存在的人类主观认知偏离能衍生出风险,导致实践结果与预期目标的偏差；偶然性风险产生于自身天然具有的有限预测性,即损失之于风险承受主体的有限控制性；认知风险的发生是由于客观复杂性与人类认知能力的有限性的严重不对称即导致风险的生成,完善了风险管理学中关于风险发生的深层机制的研究。基于系统动力学中的因果关系与反馈回路分析方法,找到了关于经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的发生机制的两条主要因果反馈回路：第一条,经济林种植的历史文化——经济林树种的栽培——经济性状——品质形象——品牌形象——经济林种植规模——经济林产业的市场形象——经济林产业化形象——形象感知水平——经济林产业形象遮蔽风险；第二条,经济林种植历史文化——经济林种植规模——加工企业——物流——餐饮——经济林产业化形象——形象感知水平——经济林产业形象遮蔽风险。本研究发现这两条主要因果反馈回路所揭示的经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的发生机制与旅游地形象遮蔽的发生机制在本质上是相同的。③关于经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的理论体系构建的研究结论构建了较为齐全的、系统化的经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的理论体系,包括经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的哲学基础理论体系、经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的基础科学理论体系、经济林产业形象遮蔽风险管理的技术科学体系以及经济林产业形象遮蔽风险管理的工程技术体系。该理论体系不仅以现有的旅游地形象遮蔽理论体系为依据,同时融合了哲学、逻辑学、林学、生态学、系统动力学、风险管理等理论与相关技术科学,大大拓展了经济林产业形象遮蔽风险的研究深度与应用范畴。(3)越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的识别构建了越西贡椒产业形象的认知遮蔽风险、种质资源相似性遮蔽风险、越西贡椒产业形象传播遮蔽风险、越西贡椒产业的空间遮蔽风险的子顶风险事件的故障树,并在此基础上合成了越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的总故障树。越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的总故障树、各子顶风险事件的故障树各事件间的主要逻辑演绎关系为或门风险事件。通过计算得到的越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险故障树的所有最小风险割集为28个并且都为1阶(低阶)风险割集,即风险割集中仅有1个底风险事件存在,且其重要性程度非常高。(4)基于TOPSIS的越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的管理优先度评价风险事件Q.13(越西与汉源贡椒的生物学性状相似性风险)、Q.14(越西与汉源贡椒的生物学性状相对极差趋同性风险)、Q.15(越西与汉源贡椒亲缘关系相近性风险)Q.22(越西贡椒产业的外拓路径网络的可达性指数的遮蔽风险)具有较高的风险管理优先度；越西贡椒认知遮蔽风险(Q.1—Q.12)、形象获取路径差异性风险(Q.16—Q.19)的风险管理优先度居中；Q.20(α、 β、γ指数性的遮蔽风险)、Q.21(越西贡椒产业的外拓物流通路的网络结点遮蔽风险)、Q.23(越西贡椒产业的外拓路径网络的平均径路长的遮蔽风险)的风险管理优先度最低。(5)基于MLP的越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的评价越西贡椒产业形象认知遮蔽风险值为0.47,而汉源为0.29；越西风险级别属于“风险中等”,而汉源则为“风险小”,汉源要明显低于越西。越西与汉源贡椒种质资源相似性遮蔽风险值均为0.49,风险等级为“风险中等”,该研究结果显示汉源贡椒的种质资源与越西具有很大的相似性,即相似性遮蔽风险很大。越西贡椒产业形象传播遮蔽风险为0.85,风险等级为“风险很大”；而汉源则为0.75,风险等级为“风险大”。越西贡椒产业形象的空间遮蔽风险值为0.55,风险等级为“风险中等”；汉源为0.44,风险等级也为“风险中等”,但越西稍高于汉源。越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽的综合风险值为0.60,风险等级为“风险中等”,而汉源为0.50,风险等级同于越西,但越西的风险值高于汉源。评价结果表明,汉源贡椒产业对越西贡椒产业形象产生了遮蔽风险。(6)越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的应对机制构建基于旅游地形象定位与区域贡椒产业协同发展构建了越西贡椒产业形象遮蔽风险的应对机制。基于旅游地形象定位理论,提出“丝绸之路上的大凉山贡椒彝乡——越西”、“越西贡椒——文昌帝张亚子的显化”两种新的越西贡椒产业形象。但由于越西贡椒产业化综合竞争力远不及汉源,两地的贡椒产业发展格局极不均衡,因此,仅靠形象重新定位不能从根本上有效应对风险。基于此,本文提出了越西与汉源贡椒产业的发展要走区域化的协同式发展道路,建立基于“1+1+N”(越西+汉源+N个贡椒产地)的四川省贡椒产业化发展综合协调与管理办公室(简称“省贡椒协调与管理办”),对越西、汉源及其它产地的贡椒产业统一化、垂直化、协同化管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tourism image masking belongs to the frontier of tourism planning studies. Internal scholars have been done relatively systemic and deep researches on tourism image masking about its meaning, extension and mechanism. Yet papers and literature show that no studies are on the image masking of product forestry industry and the pepper industry image masking, further no studies reported on the risk of image masking. So this article combine risk management theory with the theory of tourism image masking, do deep argumentation on the feasibility and aptness of tourism image masking application in product forestry industry image. And then put forward the concept of product forestry industry image masking, also discuss deeply on its meaning, extension and its risk about character and mechanism. At last form a system of product forestry industry image masking risk theory.The plantation euroky, higher market recognition degree and advanced industry develop of Hanyuan peppers make the Yuexi pepper industry under the masking of Hanyuan pepper industry image. Take this case for example, analysis have been done to the mechanism of its occurrence. Risk system recognition is working under the help of fault-tree analysis method based on the first step. Also construct a system of assessment index about Yuexi pepper industry image making risk, and measure the original value of risk at length. Then evaluate the manage priority of Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk based on TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution). And evaluate which synthetically with MLP neural network. At last build the reply strategy mechanism of Yuexi pepper industry image masking based on the final result. The main conclusions are as follow,(1) The relativity between Tourism image masking and product forestry industry image maskingIn this article studies show that the relativity between tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking are close, the use of tourism image masking in studying product forestry industry image masking is accordant with the inner attribute and function of product forestry industry. First, subject, object and intermedium are involved in both. They are common in that the cognition rules of primacy effect and apperception principle both arise from the subject. The formation of tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking is comfortable in itself. Second, tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking both have sightseeing and recreation functions which make them keep in line in attribute and function.(2)Basic theory study on product forestry image masking risk①Conclusion about the concept of product forestry image masking riskThe concepts of product forestry image masking and product forestry image masking risk are defined in meaning and extension according tourism image masking with the concept theory in logic, which are traverse in character. The correlations in concepts of image masking, tourist image masking, product forestry industry image masking and product forestry industry image masking are compatibility relation and extension part superposition, which is a witness to the close relationship between tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking further.②Conclusions of occurrence mechanism about product forestry industry image maskingAnalyzing the occurrence mechanism of forestry industry image masking finds related people (consumer, salesperson, program review expert and anyone refer to forestry industry) would apperceive the difference of same product forestry industry comprehensive development in different administrative regions, which lead to the formation of different images about goodness and badness. Risk root in philosophy category such as the inevitability and contingency, complicacy and epistemology. First, the inevitability risk occurs because that the risk derive from the inherent cognitive deviation of human leading to the deviation of practical results and the targets. Second, the occurrence of accidental risk arises from the severe asymmetry between the limited human cognitive abilities and objective complexity that lead to the generation of risk. Third, occurrence of cognitive risk due to the limitation of human cognitive ability tending to inevitable truth.Based on the analysis of causality and feedback loops in the system dynamics method, two main causal feedback loops are find on the forest industry image masking risk mechanism. One is history and culture of product forestry industry image-the plantation of product forestry-economy character-quality image-brand image-area of product forestry plantation-market image of product forestry industry-industry image of product forestry-image perception level-product forestry industry image masking risk, the other one is plantation history and culture of product forestry-area of product forestry processors-materials circulation-dinning industry-image of product forestry-image perception level-product forestry industry image masking risk. The two loops opening out the occurrence mechanism of product forestry industry image masking risk are uniform in itself.③Conclusions about the theory construction of product forestry industry image masking riskIncluding philosophy theory system, basic science theory system, technology management system and engineering techniques system, the constructed theory system is complete and systemic. The theory system not only base on the tourism image masking but also introject philosophy, logic, forestry, system dynamics, risk management and related technology science, which greatly expand the depth of research and application areas of the forest industry image masking risk.(3)Identification of the pepper industry image masking in YuexiCognition making risk, comparability masking risk of germ plasm source, spread masking risk, fault-tree of space masking risk about sub-top risk events are constructed and formed to a total fault-tree of the pepper industry image masking in Yuexi. The logical deductive relationship among events of total fault-tree and sub-top risk events fault-tree is or-gate risk event. There are total28minimum risk cutsets in Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk, all of which are one-step risk cutset (lowclass step). The one-step risk cutset is that only one basic risk event is in the risk cutset and is very important.(4)Risk management evaluation of the Yuexi pepper industry image masking basic on TOPSISRisk events Q.13(biological characteristics similarity risk between Yuexi and Hanyuan), Q.14(comparative range of biological traits convergence risk), Q.15(peppers kinship similar risk of Yuexxi and Hanyuan), Q.22(the reachability index of the extension path network making risk in Yuexi pepper industry) are with Higher risk management priority. While cognition masking risk (Q.1-Q.12) and difference risk of image obtain path (Q.16-Q.19) are in the middle. The lowest are Q.20(α、β、γ index masking risk), Q.21(network nodes masking risk of extention path network) and Q.23(average pathway length masking risk of extention path network).(5)Evaluation of the Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk based on MLPCognition masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry image is0.47(middle risk), while which in Hanyuan is0.29(low risk). Similarity masking risk value of pepper germ plasm source in Yuexi and Hanyuan are both0.49(higher risk), which reveal that the pepper in Yuexi and Hanyuan share a common genetic. Spread masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry is0.85(the highest risk). And Hanyuan Gets the value0.75(High risk). Space masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry is0.55(middle risk), which is higher than that of Hanyuan (0.44). Aggregate risk value of Yuexi pepper industry image masking is0.60(middle risk). The risk class of Yuexi is same to that of Hanyuan, but which value is higher than that of Hanyuan (0.50). as a result pepper industry image of Hanyuan leads to the masking risk to that of Yuexi.(7)Construction of mechanism replying to the masking risk of Yuexi pepper industry imageBuild the pepper industry image masking risk replying mechanisms based on tourist destination and regional pepper industry collaborative development. Put forward two new industry images of Hanyuan pepper industry, one is Daliangshan tribute pepper Yi Township in The Silk Road-Yuexi, and the other one is Yuexi tribute pepper-the reincarnation of Wenchang Emperor Zhang Yazi. But because of the pepper industry comprehensive competitiveness of Yuexi nowhere near Hanyuan and both pepper pattern of industrial development is very uneven. So only new image location is poor to reply the risk radically. Based on this the paper proposes a development road of the Yuexi and Hanyuan pepper industry going regionalization collaborative. Build the Sichuan pepper industry development coordination and management office based on "1+1+N"(Yuexi+Hanyuan+others pepper origin) to manage the pepper industry in Yuexi and Hanyuan uniformly, perpendicularly, synergistically.更多还原