【作者】 姚旭；

【导师】 张亚平；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 现代城市道路交通系统规划建设的科学性主要依托于道路交通需求预测的技术成果，为了提高道路交通需求预测的科学性和合理性，国内外城市都要花费大量人力和物力进行交通大调查，建立交通需求预测模型分析预测城市现状和未来的道路交通状况，为道路交通规划建设决策提供数据支持。由于交通大调查的费用较高，动辄千万，因此对于一般城市而言，十几年甚至是几十年才进行一次交通大调查，并且交通调查通常选择在夏季，以此调查数据建立的道路交通需求预测模型只能够预测分析城市夏季的交通状况。在我国北方，寒地城市的气候特点决定了其交通在冬季和夏季具有不同的特点，冬季道路交通系统运行状况受交通供需、严寒天气、降雪等方面的影响较大，冬季与夏季交通运行状况有很大差异。因此，要想全面分析预测寒地城市冬夏两季交通状况，就需要进行冬季和夏季两次交通调查，分别建立冬季道路交通需求预测模型和夏季道路交通需求预测模型，这需要投入巨大的人力和物力，而一般寒地城市很难实现。根据实际调查，一般寒地城市冬季道路交通供需矛盾较夏季更为突出，对于寒地城市而言其交通规划建设主要依据冬季道路交通调查数据，因此需要建立冬季道路交通需求预测模型进行冬季道路交通需求预测。然而由于气候条件的影响，寒地城市开展大规模冬季交通调查十分困难，且冬季调查费用较夏季更为高昂，调查难以实现。而一般寒地城市特别是大城市都进行了夏季交通大调查，因此有必要深入研究寒地城市冬夏两季的交通运行规律，研究气候对交通模型中人、车、路等交通要素的影响，分析建立冬季交通需求预测模型的特定因素和条件，建立一套利用既有的夏季交通调查数据来建立冬季道路交通需求预测的方法。冬季道路交通需求预测模型有广泛的应用空间，运用冬季道路交通需求预测模型不仅可以模拟冬季各类机动车辆在道路上的行驶状况，预测远景年道路交通流量状况，而且能够对近期交通建设项目进行科学排序，运用冬季道路交通需求预测结果还可以构造寒地城市中心区冬季停车需求与动态交通量关系模型。这样在不进行大规模冬季交通调查的前提下，就可以利用夏季交通调查数据构建冬季道路交通需求预测模型和中心区冬季停车需求预测模型。用此模型来模拟分析、预测冬季交通状况，既能节省大量的交通调查费用，又能提高交通需求预测的准确度，保证交通规划项目能够顺利推进。论文依托黑龙江省自然科学基金项目和哈尔滨市综合交通规划项目，在总结吸纳国内外相关研究成果的基础上，利用哈尔滨市和大庆市有关调查数据，对寒地城市居民出行特征进行了深入分析，对寒地城市冬季道路交通需求预测的建立方法及应用进行了深入探讨。论文详细论述了城市道路交通需求预测的方法、理论基础和适用条件，主要介绍了交通生成预测增长率法、原单位法及函数法，交通方式划分预测分担率曲线法和函数模型法，交通分布预测增长率法、重力模型法及机会模型法，交通分配预测固定需求分配、弹性需求分配及组合分配法等。论文详细分析了道路交通需求预测模型构成指标影响因素，根据道路交通需求预测模型的特性及指标选取的原则方法建立了道路交通需求预测模型的指标体系，提出了城市道路交通需求预测模型指标体系的41项具体指标，运用综合评价理论及敏感度分析方法分析冬季低温、降雪对模型指标的敏感程度，进一步筛选出冬季低温对模型建立有较大影响的18项具体指标。论文对不同温度条件下的居民出行特征进行了调查分析，根据指标选取的方法、原则确定了居民出行特征构成指标的选取，进行了初夏时期、初春时期及寒冬时期的居民出行调查，对比分析了不同气候条件下居民出行的差异性。根据典型寒地城市的调查数据得到了5种不同道路等级条件下5类不同摩擦系数的路面状态分级；通过调查分析低温常态道路条件下车辆运行速度及低温条件对交通流特性的影响程度，改进了寒地城市冬季道路路段车道通行能力的计算方法；根据低温常态路面对信号交叉口起动损失时间及车辆通过停止线平均间隔时间的影响，确立了低温常态路面条件下的典型交叉口通行能力的计算方法。通过分析冬季低温、降雪等因素对出行生成模型、方式划分模型、交通分布模型以及交通分配模型构建要素及参数的影响，提出了寒地城市冬季居民出行生成模型；提出了采用非机动方式预划分方法建立冬季道路交通需求预测方式划分模型，建立了基于土地混杂度、公交可达性因子的非机动方式预划分线性回归模型；提出了寒地城市冬季道路交通需求预测以5阶原点距为特征向量的熵分布模型；在交通分配模型中提出了冬季道路延误函数的计算方法。根据本文提出的寒地城市冬季道路交通需求预测方法，以哈尔滨为例建立了冬季道路交通需求预测模型，应用哈尔滨市冬季道路交通需求预测模型分析评价了哈尔滨市北环路高架方案的区域交通影响；应用冬季道路交通需求预测模型构建寒地城市中心区冬季停车需求与动态交通需求的关系模型，并利用哈尔滨市道里中心区的调查数据进行了模型的验证分析，应用效果良好。更多还原

【Abstract】 The scientificity of modern city road traffic system planning and constructiondepends on technical achievement in road traffic demand forecasting research.Therefore, in order to improve the rationality and scientificity of road traffic demandprediction, domestic and overseas cities have spent lots of manpower and materialresources conducting traffic investigation, which is used to develop the traffic demandforecasting models. These models are employed to analyze the current and future trafficoperation situation in cities, this provides data supports for city road traffic systemplanning and construction decision making. However, because of traffic survey costinga lot, most cities conduct the traffic investigation every decade, or even decades.Moreover, almost all traffic surveys are carried out in summer, the collected data is onlyutilized to predict the traffic condition during summer season.In Northern China, the features of cold climate in large cities determine that thetraffic has different characteristics in winter and summer. Winter road traffic systemperformance affected by various influence, like traffic supply and demand, the coldweather, snow and so on, is very diffident from that in summer. Therefore, in order topredict the future traffic conditions of cold climate city with the traffic model, it needsto create a different model of traffic demand forecasting for winter and summer, andcollect traffic survey data in different periods. Due to the impact of climatic conditions,carrying out a large-scale survey of traffic in cold climate city is very difficult. So it isnecessary to study the traffic laws governing the operation of the traffic in summer andwinter, and the impact of climate on human traffic models, vehicles, roads and othertransportation elements, to analyze these factors used for winter traffic demand forecast,and to deduce winter traffic demand according to the survey data collected in summer.Hence, one of the objectives of this study is proposed an approach to predict winter roadtraffic condition based on summer traffic relevant data.Winter road traffic demand forecasting model has broad application space, whichnot only can simulate driving conditions of all kinds of motor vehicles in winter androad traffic conditions of vision year, but also help to sort recent transportationconstruction projects scientifically. The relationship of static parking demand anddynamic demand is investigated using the road traffic demand forecasts in winter. Inthis way, the road traffic demand and central district parking demand prediction can beobtained using the data collected in summer, even if traffic survey cannot be conductedin winter. The proposed model is used to analyze road traffic operation situation.Therefore, without such a large-scale survey of the winter traffic, we can build a winterroad travel demand forecasting model to simulate the actual traffic situation analysis ofthe winter, which can save a lot of traffic investigation costs and improve the accuracy of traffic demand forecasting to ensure the project can operate smoothly.This paper relays on Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province andHarbin City Comprehensive Transportation Planning project. Based on the summary ofrelevant research results at home and abroad and using the data related to Harbin andDaqing, it discussed deeply about the method for establishing the travel demandforecasting model of cold climate city and parking demand model for urban centers inwinter.In this paper, the prediction method of urban road traffic demand has beenelaborated. Traffic generation forecast method mainly includes growth rate method,original unit method and function method. Traffic mode prediction has two divisionmethods: divided by multilayer or monolayer and according to the service providers.The latter’ prediction methods mainly consist of sharing rate curve method and modelmethod. Traffic distribution forecast mainly contains growth rate method, gravity modelapproach and opportunity model approach. Traffic assignment model mainly includesfixed demand distribution, elastic demand forecasting and portfolio allocation. Atheoretical foundation for the application of the text is listed. This paper established aprediction indicator system according to the factors of road traffic demand forecastingmodel, created an index system of road traffic demand forecasting model based on thecharacteristics and the principle method of selecting indexes, and come up with the41specific indicators term of urban road traffic demand forecasting model. Usecomprehensive evaluation and sensitivity theory to analyze the sensitive degree of thewinter cold, snow to the model and further screened18specific indicators which have agreater impact on building the model.The characteristics of residents’ trip under different temperature conditions is beinvestigated and analyzed to ensure the indicators of resident trip characteristicsconstitute according to the methodological principles of picking index. Then makesurvey of residents’trip during spring and summer alternate, winter and spring alternate,particularly cold period, and analyze the difference of residents’ trip between thedifferent temperature conditions.According to the different winter city survey, this paper got the pavement conditiongrading of five road grades under five friction coefficient conditions, and the mainimpact of the low temperature to the vehicle through the survey of vehicles speed underlow normal road conditions. Through the existing road capacity calculation methods,correct and obtain the calculation method of road sections lane capacity in winter.Finally, according to the influence of low normal road to starting lost time ofintersection and average time interval of vehicle passing the stop line, establish acalculation method of typical intersection capacity under low normal road condition.Through the analysis of impact of factors such as low temperature, snow and etc.on elements and parameters of building trip generation model, split model, traffic distribution model and traffic assignment model, the paper revised the original functionmodel. Then it set up the function model of residents-travel effect in cold city. And itput forward to the way of building the model of means of transportation in winter by themethod of preliminary classification of non-flexible means. The linear regression modelof preliminary classification of non-flexible means with factors of land-mixed degreeand bus accessibility was established; And the applicable model of road impedancefunction among traffic distribution model in cold city was proposed; The entropydistribution model based on the Eigen vector of five order origin moment wasestablished as well. Meanwhile, it gave the calculation method of delay function on thewinter road in traffic assignment model and proposed the method of traffic demandforecasting model on the road of cold city. Finally, the paper took Harbin for exampleand established the traffic demand forecasting model on winter road. Furthermore, theproposed model was utilized to analyze the effects on periphery traffic operation ofNorth loop overhead road in Harbin.According to the travel demand forecasting model of cold climate city in winter,the winter road travel demand forecasting model was established, in Harbin, forexample. The regional traffic impact of North Ring Road elevated program in Harbinwas evaluated using the winter road travel demand forecasting model, and therelationship of static parking demand and dynamic demand was established. Using thedata of Daoli central area in Harbin made a validation of analytical which got a goodeffect.更多还原