【作者】 臧雷振；

【导师】 徐湘林；

【作者基本信息】 北京大学 ， 中外政治制度， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 本文在定量和定性多重研究方法融合的基础上，通过分析互联网新媒体、政治机会结构变迁等因素对政治参与的影响，借中国案例，探索相应的公众政治参与行为变化（如参与规模、参与选择、参与策略、参与形式等），并基于国家治理的视角，解析政府政策对公众参与变化的回应现状及未来展望。以期为剧烈变革时期政治社会转型提供理论支持，学理化呈现当前中国政治参与、政治机会结构变迁与国家治理回应之间的相互关系，并将中国实践和经验的理论化成果纳入政治科学体系之中，建构国家治理研究的新进路。全文首先从宏观和微观两个角度回顾性评价已有研究成果的学科分布、概念发展、理论演化、实证验证等不同进展，并指出已有文献在研究视角单一、研究内容单薄、验证结果冲突、研究方法使用不平衡、研究主题缺乏交叉验证等方面不足，这些问题导致此主题研究无法从根本上实现社会科学研究知识的增量进步。其次，概要梳理政治信息传播载体的演化历史及不同传播载体对政治参与的影响，同时着重分析互联网新媒体对政治参与影响及其在中国的现实表现，特别指出互联网在提升政治信息传播速度、延展政治信息传播时效、拓展政治信息传播空间等方面的正面效能。当然，也指出新媒体信息传播对政治参与带来的负面影响及对其矫正。同时，通过比较地解读政治参与的传统分析视角，引出“政治机会结构”理论，在回顾政治机会结构理论变迁的历史条件及相关实证检验基础上，扩展了政治机会结构理论研究范畴，并表明其对中国政治参与解释的适应性和影响力，如在探索政治参与发生的因果机制，解读政治参与过程，链接宏观研究与微观分析等方面的理论价值。指出政治机会结构理论为理解中国政治参与发生、发展及其成败提供了动态新视角。再次，在完成以上一般性理论框架建构后，将研究视野转入中国，阐述中国语境下互联网新媒体和政治机会结构变迁对政治参与影响的现实表现。为进一步验证相关理论对中国实践的适用性，从案例实证研究和数理实证研究出发，进行对比验证。案例研究部分针对中国民众常见的“信访”这一政治参与现象进行分析表明：中国政府和公众在信访案例中对互联网技术的吸纳使用过程，以及中国信访制度变迁中所展现的政治机会窗口的开启线索；一方面展示中国政府在面向新信息技术对政治结构冲击中所具有的适应性和调整能力，另一方面也展现中国公众面对信息技术变迁，把握政治参与机会、调整自身参与策略的能力。数理实证部分以中国家庭调查数据（CFPS，2010），采用多元线性回归方程，建立相关模型来检验互联网新媒体使用和政治机会结构变迁等相关变量对我国村/居选举投票的影响关系，结果表明，村/居公众平均使用互联网并运用新媒体的比例越高，其整体投票率越高，此外，政治机会结构同样与政治参与正相关。但比较政治机会结构与新媒体使用两因素对政治参与行为影响程度时，发现起到信息获取作用的新媒体具有更高的影响力。即信息透明度和信息公开相比较政治参与渠道而言，对中国政治参与影响程度更大。最后，基于上述分析，探索将中国政治参与纳入国家治理范畴进行回应的可能性和必要性，通过对当前中国国家治理回应策略和政策归纳性评估，尝试探讨其进一步改进的空间。指出当前国家治理回应的主要类型多体现在政治输入阶段（Political Input Phase），对于政治输出阶段（Political Output Phase）的国家治理回应较少；追求短期效果改良的回应政策较多，而对于追求长期全局化制度化的回应政策较少。面对政治参与扩大化的未来，国家治理回应完善需基于以下逻辑进路考量：即未来回应策略需更加全面、更加连贯、更加稳健及合理运用非正式回应和特定回应政策。最终实现缔造与社会发展现实相适应的国家治理体系，促进高品质政治参与和国家治理现代化在中国的实现。更多还原

【Abstract】 This study analyzes influences of China’s Internet access, new media and politicalopportunity structure on political participation and then compares them. Based on theintegration of quantitative and qualitative methods, I explore related public politicalparticipation behavior change (such as the scales, choices, strategies and forms ofparticipation) in China, analyze and evaluate the current situation of governance response.This study aims to provide theoretical support for China’s political and socialtransformation in this drastic reform period, to present matching conditions betweenpolitical participation, political opportunity structure and state governance response, andto incorporate China’s related practices and theoretical achievements into the theoreticalsystem of political science, thus finding a new avenue for the research on stategovernance.To begin with, this study retrospectively evaluates the developments of subjectdistribution, concept development, theoretical evolution and empirical studies in existingresearch achievements from both the macro and micro aspects, and then points out theshortcomings of current literatures—single research perspective, stuffless researchcontent, controversial testing results, unbalanced research methods, deficient crossvalidation, which makes it impossible to increase the knowledge of current social scienceresearch. This section lays the theoretical foundation for establishing a systematicresearch framework. Secondly, I simply review the evolution of political information communicativemedium and influences of different communicative mediums on political participation, andanalyze the effect of Internet access and new social media on political participation inChina, especially the roles of Internet in increasing the speed of political informationcommunication, improving its effectiveness and expanding its space. The negative impactof new social media on political participation and corresponding correction methods arealso taken into account.Meanwhile, by comparing traditional analytical perspectives on political participation,this article provides a new angle as political opportunity structure. Based on reviews ofhistorical conditions of political opportunity structural change and related empirical tests, Iexpand the research scope of political opportunity structure theory and illustrate itsadaptability to the explanation of political participation, reveal the evolution process andcausal mechanism of political participation, as well as build a bridge betweenmacro-research and micro-analysis, thus helping people to better understand theemergence, development and result of political participation.In addition, based on the above general theoretical framework, taking China as anexample, this study analyzes the actual influences of Internet access, new social mediaand political opportunity structural change on political participation.To test the applicability of related theories in China’s practice, the dissertation startswith a case study and a quantitative study to conduct a comparative analysis. The casestudy analyzes the common phenomenon of public political participation inChina—petitions (appealing by letter or in person). It discusses the process of Internettechnology being applied in petitions by the public and governments, and the opening ofpolitical opportunity window in the institutional change of China’s petitions, whichdemonstrates the flexibility of China’s governments confronting the impact of newinformation technology on political structure as well as the adaptability of the public facingthe rapid development of information technology and political opportunity. The quantitative study employs the data of China Family Panel Studies (2010) by theInstitute of Social Science Survey in Peking University to run multivariate regressionmodels, and then test the influences of Internet access, new social media use and politicalopportunity structure variables on votes in community selection. The results are showedas followings: Internet access and new social media use together will significantlyincrease the public’s political participation; political opportunity structure is in directproportion with political participation; compared with political opportunity structure, newsocial media use has much stronger impact on political participation, which means that thetransparency and openness of information are more influential than political participationchannels.Last but not least, based on the above exploration, the piece tests the possibility andnecessity of incorporating China’s political participation into the research field of stategovernance, evaluate China’s current state governance response strategies and policies,and then discuss the room for further improvements. This paper clearly states that themain categories of current state governance response exist in Political Input Phaseinstead of Political Output Phase; and response strategies aiming at the short-termimprovement are much more than those aiming at long-run institutionalization. With therapid enlargement of political participation, the improvement of state governanceresponse strategies should be more comprehensive, coherent and robust, with the properuse of informal responses, so as to establish a new state governance system adapting tothe practical needs of our social development, and to advance the realization ofhigh-quality political participation and the modernization of state governance in China.更多还原