【作者】 徐智鹏；

【导师】 郗恩崇；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 高速公路作为现代化运输的主要标志、重要的交通基础设施，提升了人们的生活质量水平，促进了经济与社会的迅猛发展。高速公路网络的快速发展和完善，对政治、经济、社会、生态、国防建设的发展具有重要的战略意义。河南高速公路通车里程已经连续八年全国第一位，对河南经济发展和社会进步有着巨大的促进作用。然而，河南高速公路发展中的问题也同样突出，尤其是在高速公路项目的投融资上，主要表现在投资主体单一、筹资模式狭窄、退出机制不合理、投资管理不够完善等方面。研究河南省高速公路投融资显得非常重要，可以最大限度发挥河南高速公路网络对全国高速公路建设的示范和引领作用。首先构建了高速公路融资主体信用评估的指标体系，从信用结构和偿债能力两个方面建立了评估体系，并根据主成分分析法和层次分析法分别进行了深入考察，构建了高速公路信用评估的具体算法；且运用层次分析法，对河南省高速公路具体案例融资主体的信用进行综合评价。其次，根据高速公路投融资方的决策影响因素，将投资方和融资方各自的基本决策函数纳入，建立了一个组合决策模型；进而从博弈论和信息经济学的视角，建立了一个高速公路投融资决策的委托代理模型，考察高速公路投融资主体最优投融资决策。接下来，结合河南省高速公路具体案例，本文从高速公路风险识别与评价、高速公路风险分担模型构建进行了探讨。在此基础上，本文将常见的突发不确定性和常被忽略的认知不确定性纳入到模型中，建立了一个投融资方差模型，并基于鞅方差模型（MVM）和总体方差模型（GVM）进对BOT交通流量进行了模拟，纠正“认知偏误”对高速公路项目风险评估的影响。本文具体的创新之处有以下方面：1．建立了一个高速公路投融资决策的委托代理模型。通过参与约束和激励相容准则，求解出了最优投融资决策与均衡解。本文的研究，将为我们从内在运行机理了解高速公路投融资主体之间的决策行为与相互影响提供了一个很好的学理支撑和理论依据，是对现有研究的一个极大的补充，也是方法论上的一个很好的创新。2．纠正了高速公路项目认知不确定对投融资风险的“认知偏误”。本文将常见的突发不确定性和常被忽略的认知不确定性纳入到模型中，建立了一个投融资方差模型，并基于鞅方差模型（MVM）和总体方差模型（GVM）进对BOT交通流量进行了模拟。本文研究发现，若在高速公路项目评估中忽略了认知不确定性，将会高估项目的下行风险，进而会导致将实际可行的BOT项目舍弃。这一研究结论对高速公路风险管理具有重要的实践意义。3．构建了高速公路投融资主体评估体系。本文构建了一个高速公路投融资主体的评估体系，并以河南省高速公路的具体案例，研究了这一评估体系如何用于具体项目评估实践中。高速公路投融资主体评估体系的构建，是对现有文献的一个有益补充，具有一定的理论创新和很好的现实指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The network of expressway forms a part of modern transportation system of China,upholding national strategy in terms of policy, economy, etc. And Henan has the longestexpressway network in China for8years, which plays significant role in promoting Henan’sdevelopment of economy and society. Coming with its fast network construction, Henanprovince is experiencing drawbacks especially on the financing&investing. This research isdedicating on solving such problems to support the development of national expresswaysystem.Firstly, this research structured credit evaluation system for major finance part ofexpressway network, being tested in depth with analytical methodologies of Majority andhierarchy process. Secondly, according to investors and financiers decision-making, thisresearch took functions of each parities into account, creating a matrix for investment decision,providing perspectives of “Game Theory and Information Economics”. This researchdiscussed risk identification and review, etc. With analysis of MVM and GVM, it simulatedBOT traffic flow, correcting bias perception affecting on risk management.This research’s innovation is reflected on the following aspects:1， A principal-agent model about decision-making on expressway investing andfinancing is established. Based on individual rationality constraint (IR) and the incentivecompatibility constraint (IC) principle, the optimal investing and financing decisions andbalanced solutions are calculated. This research can provide good theoretical support andtheoretical basis to our understanding of decision-making of and the mutual influencebetween the investing and financing bodies of expressway from the perspective of internaloperation mechanism; it is also a great complement to the existing research, and a very goodmethodological innovation;2，This research corrects the "cognitive bias" on investing and financing risk arising fromthe cognitive uncertainty about expressway project. This research will incorporate commonuncertainty and cognitive uncertainty which is often overlooked into the model, establish a financing variance model and stimulate BOT traffic flow Martingale Variance Model (MVM)and Gross Variance Model (GVM). This research found that, if cognitive uncertainty isignored in project evaluation, projects’ downside risk would be overestimated, which wouldlead to discard practical BOT projects. This conclusion has important practical implicationsfor expressway risk management.3，An evaluation system is constructed to assess the investing and financing bodies ofexpressway. This research constructs an evaluation system to assess the investing andfinancing bodies of expressway, study how such evaluation system could be used in specificproject evaluation by analyzing cases of Henan expressway projects. The construction of suchsystem is a useful addition to the existing literature, and of theoretical innovation and realisticguiding significance.更多还原