【作者】 刘开华；

【导师】 郑长德；

【作者基本信息】 西南民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 世界经济发展历史表明,长期持续的经济增长要求产业结构的不断优化升级。产业结构的失衡不仅降低经济运行效率,阻碍经济发展,而且还会导致资源浪费、环境污染以及收入差距扩大等各种社会问题。因此,探寻地区产业结构的优化途径成为当前学术界和政府亟待解决的关键问题。改革开放以来,贵州的经济发展取得了显著的成就,但是由于自然条件和历史等原因,贵州省的经济发展长期滞后全国,虽然原因是多个方面的,但是贵州产业结构矛盾日益突出,成为制约经济健康发展一个重要影响因素。本文的研究表明,贵州的产业结构与要素禀赋决定的比较优势相背离,导致三次产业非均衡发展,整体生产效率不高,缺乏竞争力,对地区经济可持续发展极为不利。因此,在当前我国进行经济结构转型的关键时期,贵州能否抓住机遇,优化产业结构,关系到贵州省经济的持续健康发展。传统结构经济学的主流观点对于产业结构优化问题主要通过农业社会向工业社会转变,第一产业主导向第二、三产业转变,乃至于劳动密集型向资本技术密集型转等方式展开,并认为这是一种普遍适用的标准模式,基本上没有区别所要研究地区的禀赋特点。事实证明,部分地区由于产业结构的不合理调整,违背了地区的比较优势,反而对经济增长不利。本文根据新结构经济学的理论分析框架,按照“要素禀赋决定地区的比较优势,进而决定地区的产业结构,最终决定地区经济发展”的研究思路,对贵州的产业结构存在的问题及优化途径进行探讨。本文的研究结论和创新点主要在于：(1)通过收集贵州的面板数据进行计量分析发现,产业结构失衡是制约贵州经济持续健康发展的重要因素。(2)根据三次产业当中对资本和劳动的使用比例关系,构造了“比较优势符合度”的衡量指标,实证分析发现贵州的产业结构与比较优势存在较大偏离,主要表现为第一产业的劳均资本存量远远低于贵州整体的平均水平,而第二产业就业吸纳能力不足,并且第三产业的资本产出效率较低。因此首先应当加大农业投资,走农业产业化之路,提高农业生产率,加快农村剩余劳动力的转移；其次,在资源环境约束条件下提高具有资源禀赋优势的工业发展质量；第三,科学规划,提高第三产业的资本使用效率。(3)本文试图从“数量、质量和空间”三个维度对贵州省产业结构优化路径进行分析。贵州的产业结构与比较优势的偏离一方面制约了贵州的经济发展效率,另一方面也不利于贵州经济的可持续发展和缩小收入差距,而同时产业的空间布局也需要遵循各地区要素禀赋的分布状况。(4)产业结构调整优化要适应未来要素禀赋和比较优势的变动趋势。本文通过对贵州省资本存量和就业人口的时间序列数据进行动态分析和预测,发现未来10年贵州的资本存量增长速度远高于劳动,因此贵州的产业结构优化可以适当配置更多的资本密集型产业,以适应未来贵州资本存量的高速增长。(5)在产业结构调整过程中一方面要以市场调节为基础,另一方面政府也应当遵循比较优势原则,甄别主导产业,并因势利导发挥积极作用,通过基础设施供给和政策扶持促进产业结构的优化升级。本文研究的主要内容如下：在第二章和第三章对产业结构和新结构经济学的相关理论进行评述的基础上,第四章对贵州的要素禀赋条件进行分析,将贵州的自然资源、资本形成、劳动的数量和质量等生产要素与国内部分省市进行比对,探寻贵州的比较优势。第五章对贵州产业结构的现状进行分析,进而剖析贵州的产业结构是否与贵州的比较优势相符。第六章探讨贵州产业结构与比较优势的偏离对贵州经济发展的影响,实证研究发现,贵州产业结构与比较优势的偏离对产业发展效率有较为显著的负面影响；同时,产业结构与比较优势的偏离也扩大了产业发展差距和收入差距,工业化成果并未普遍惠及人们大众；并且产业结构与比较优势的偏离还影响贵州经济的可持续发展。既然产业结构与比较优势的偏离不利于贵州经济的持续健康发展,因此,第七章对贵州产业结构偏离比较优势的原因分析,主要从自然地理条件、市场不完全、经济发展水平、政策制度、技术水平以及民族心理等方面寻求可能的原因。最后,本文基于新结构经济学的增长甄别理论,在第八章提出贵州产业结构优化的政策建议,主要包括以下五个方面：(1)由于地区的比较优势具有动态特征,因此要求产业结构调整具有前瞻性；(2)筛选具有潜在比较优势的主导产业,本文主要在借鉴发达地区产业结构的基础上,并结合贵州各个行业的实际发展情况进行选择；(3)在确定未来发展的主导产业基础上,政府可以通过出台优惠政策引导和扶持那些具有潜在比较优势的产业得以优先发展；(4)政府通过改善基础设施供给,降低经济运行成本,有利于产业结构的优化升级；(5)此外,结合贵州地区的多民族特征,本文还提出贵州民族产业优化发展的相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 History of world economy development indicates that long-term, sustained economic growthrequires the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. The imbalance of industrialstructure not only reduces the efficiency of economic operation, hinder the development ofeconomy, but also lead to the waste of resources, environmental pollution, the widening incomegap and other various social problems. Therefore, exploring the ways to optimize the regionalindustrial structure becomes the key problem in academic circles and government need to solve.Since the reform and opening up, Guizhou’s economic development has made remarkableachievements, but because of natural conditions and historical reasons, the economicdevelopment of Guizhou province lags behind the national long term, although the reasons are inmany aspects, but the Guizhou industrial structure contradictions have become increasinglyprominent, has become restricts the healthy development of the economy an important factor.This study shows that, endowment industry structure and elements in Guizhou decided to deviatefrom the comparative advantage, resulting in the overall production efficiency three industries isnot high, lack of competitiveness, sustainable development of regional economy is extremelyunfavorable. Therefore, in the current critical period of China’s economic structuraltransformation, Guizhou can seize the opportunity, optimize the industrial structure, related to thesustained and healthy economic development of Guizhou province.The mainstream view of traditional economics structure for the optimization of industrialstructure mainly through the transformation of agricultural society to industrial society, the firstindustry leading into second, three industries, and labor-intensive to capital-and technologyintensive turn mode, and that this is a universal standard model, basically no difference toendowment the area. In fact, in some areas due to the unreasonable industrial structureadjustment, contrary to the regional comparative advantages, have a negative impact oneconomic growth. On the basis of the new structure economics theoretical framework, inaccordance with the "factor endowments decision areas of comparative advantage, and determinethe industrial structure of the region, research ideas finally decided to region economydevelopment", this paper discuss the problems and optimization approach of industrial structureof Guizhou. The conclusion and innovation of this research mainly lies in:(1) By econometric analysisof panel data collected by Guizhou, the imbalance of industrial structure is the important factor torestrict the sustainable and healthy development of Guizhou economy.(2) According to the threeindustries to use proportional relations between labor and capital, Propose a measure ofcomparative advantage index, the empirical analysis found that there is a big difference betweenthe industrial structure and comparative advantage of Guizhou, mainly for the first industry laborcapital stock is far lower than the average level of the whole of Guizhou, while the secondindustry lack of employment absorption capacity, and the third industry in the capital outputefficiency is low. So we should increase investment in agriculture, increase agriculturalproductivity, speed up the transfer of rural surplus labor force secondly,,improve the quality ofindustrial development with resource advantages, In resource and environmental constraints;thirdly, scientific planning, improve the use efficiency of the third industry capital.(3) This papertries to analysis from the Guizhou Province industrial structure optimization path of threedimension number,"quantity, quality and space". Guizhou’s industrial structure and comparativeadvantage from a restricted the development of Guizhou’s economy efficiency, on the other hand,is not conducive to the sustainable development of Guizhou economy and narrowing the incomegap, while at the same time, the layout of industry space also need to follow the regional factorendowment distribution.(4) The adjustment and optimization of industry structure should adaptto the trend of changes in future comparative advantage and factor endowment. In this paper,regression analysis and forecasting the capital stock and the employment population of the timeseries data of Guizhou Province, found that the next10years Guizhou’s capital stock is far higherthan the growth rate of labor, so the optimization can allocate more capital intensive industries,the industrial structure of Guizhou, in order to adapt to the rapid growth of the capital stock ofGuizhou’s future.(5) In the course of industrial structure adjustment should be based on marketregulation, on the other hand, the government should also follow the principle of comparativeadvantage, play a positive role in the light of its general trend, provides the infrastructure andpolicy support to support and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.The main contents of this paper are as follows: Firstly, the second chapter and the thirdchapter is the review of the theory of industrial structure and the new structure economics, thenanalysis of the Guizhou factor endowments conditions in the fourth chapter, compare theproduction factors such as natural resources, capital formation, the quantity and quality of laborbetween the Guizhou and other domestic provinces, explore Guizhou’s comparative advantage.Secondly, this paper carries on the present situation of the industrial structure of Guizhou in thefifth chapter, and then analyze the comparative advantage and the industrial structure of Guizhou.Again, in the sixth chapter of this paper to investigate the influence of the deviation of Guizhouindustrial structure to comparative advantage on the economic development, empirical studyfound, the deviation of industrial structure and comparative advantage has a negative significantimpact on the efficiency of industry development; at the same time, the industrial structure andcomparative advantage of departure also expanded industry development gap and income gap,industrialization achievements did not generally benefit the people; deviation of industrialstructure to comparative advantage also affects the sustainable economic development of Guizhou. Since the deviation between industrial structure and comparative advantage is notconducive to the sustainable development of Guizhou’s economy, therefore, in the seventhchapter analysis reasons of deviation of industrial structure to the comparative advantage, mainlyfrom the natural and geographical conditions, incomplete market economy, the level of economicdevelopment, policy system, technological level and other reasons such as the nationalpsychology.Finally, based on the theory of the new structure economics growth parting, commendatiethe suggestion on the optimization of industrial structure of Guizhou policy in the eighth chapter,mainly includes the following five aspects:(1) The comparative advantage is dynamic, so theadjustment of industrial structure should be forward-looking;(2) Choose the leading industrieswhich have potential comparative advantage, this paper is mainly on the basis of industrialstructure in developed areas, and combining with the actual development of Guizhou industries;(3) Based on the determine of the future leading industriest, the government can introducepreferential policies to guide and support those industry with potential comparative advantage togive priority to the development of;(4) Government by improving the infrastructure supply,reduce the cost of running the economy, conducive to the optimization and upgrading ofindustrial structure;(5) In addition, combined with the national characteristics in Guizhou area,this paper also puts forward relevant policy suggestions to optimize the national industry ofGuizhou.更多还原