【作者】 陈文喆；

【导师】 黄新建；

【作者基本信息】 南昌大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 区域经济学中，城市首位度是关于城市规模分布的重要理论，特别是对于大城市在区域发展中的地位，首位度是较为权威的衡量标准。而区域经济发展过程中，随着工业化进程的不断提升，一种重要的城市化现象是以首位城市、中心城市为带动的发展道路，由首位城市为核心的城市群作为区域发展的重要载体，凭借其集聚效应和辐射作用，来推动区域经济快速增长。基于上述两点，进一步深入到我国区域发展进程中，一种城市化差异现象值得关注：东部发达地区的各省域内一般都存在着两个发展水平相近的城市，即存在一个在规模、实力等方面均可同省会城市相互竞争、相互协调的副中心城市，而中部地区发展的各省域则普遍呈现出省会城市独大的局面，各省域中几乎没有次级城市可同省会发展相提并论，而中部区域的发展水平同东部地区相比依然存在一定的差距。那么，这种城市结构的差异同经济发展水平之间是否存在必然的联系？对此，以中部各省域为研究范围，以城市首位度同区域经济增长的关系为研究对象，探索二者之间的作用机理，并提出科学、高效的城市发展对策。根据上述研究视角和研究思路，本研究的主要内容和成果有以下几个方面：第一，奠定研究的理论基础。系统梳理了有关城市首位度的国内外研究理论、现有的研究成果，并重点对中心城市、城市结构体系等的相关理论进行了综述和总结，同时选取了中部地区的部分城市发展相关文献进行了评述，现有的相关文献表明，专门研究城市首位度同经济增长的文献较少，并仅将首位度作为一种研究工具，并未深入到经济因素的深层次中，以至于对其最优规模的探讨甚少，这也是本研究的重要突破口。第二，首位城市现状分析。利用竞争力的一般评价模型，通过建立中部省域首位城市的竞争力评价指标体系，对各首位城市当前的发展实力进行比较，运用因子分析方法，对中部省域首位城市发展实力进行了排名，结果显示，武汉和长沙的城市实力最强，其次为郑州、合肥和南昌，太原则相对较弱。同时，总结出中部省域首位城市当前面临的突出问题，如产业协调和区域合作程度较低、职能分工不明确、生态环境威胁严重等。第三，城市首位度变化规律。通过建立中部省域人口首位度和经济增长首位度的时间序列方程，对比于现实的经济发展情况，发现中部省域首位度同经济增长并不完全符合“威廉姆森—汉森假说”中的倒“U”型曲线，进而对该理论进行了补充和完善，即认为其存在一种静态性的假设条件，可视为区域经济理论中的一种长期的发展规律，首位度的发展变化更多的是由内在资源配置效率趋同的规律所支配。第四，城市首位度与经济增长的关系。首先解决了城市首位度同经济增长关系的存在性问题，通过因果关系检验，证实中部省域的城市首位度的确是经济增长的原因之一，且更多地体现在对人均GDP的影响上，人力资本的集聚依然推动经济增长；由于城市首位度的经济贡献存在滞后，中部欠发达地区仍需要对资源进行合理配置、对技术消化吸收，适当地提高集聚规模实现经济快速增长。其次分析了首位度与经济增长关系的趋势性，以简单线性图标识出中部省域二者之间的相互关系，形成中部省域的“威廉姆森曲线”（水平“S”型、倒“U”型或单调增长型），探索性地分析出二者在中期发展阶段内的关系趋势。第五，城市首位度最优规模。结合区域经济增长的其他因素，构建包括城市首位度在内的区域经济增长模型，通过阈值回归分析方法，得出各省域城市首位度的最优规模值。研究结果找出了部分省域的最优值，不存在阈值的湖北、湖南两省表明其首位城市对经济增长的作用平稳，无明显波动，河南、安徽两省需要进一步优化城市布局结构，江西和山西在最优规模上均具有较高值，体现出经济欠发达地区的首位型城市集聚特征仍是不断增强的，从另一个方面也证实江西实施“打造南昌核心增长极”的政策取得一定成效。同时，首位度作为经济因素进行研究的局限性也有所体现。第六，区域经济增长的效率。为明确未来中部省域在城市集聚的重点内容，以资源配置效率为研究对象，分析中部省域在经济投入要素上的利用程度，总结其配置效率的高低，得出中部省域普遍处于规模效益递增阶段，生产要素和生产效率均可进一步提升经济增长速度，同时人口（劳动力）要素的数量提升对经济增长效率显然较低。首位城市发展要改变传统人口、规模简单扩张的理念，以广义的人力资本概念为准，通过技术创新等实现全要素生产率，规模的有效提升要依靠人力、资本和技术的综合集中以及资源的有效利用、高效配置。第七，首位城市同区域经济增长的机理。重点研究中部省域首位城市发展同经济增长之间的内在关系与机制，根据首位城市所具有的区域集聚功能、辐射功能，总结出首位城市在区域经济发展过程中的动力机理、传递机理和协调机理。分别运用传统定性分析中的要素机理关系图和系统动力学中的成长上限基模、富者愈富基模以及“恶性竞争”基模，建立了首位度对经济增长的作用机理模型，较系统地描述了首位城市在区域发展中各要素的相互作用关系，针对中部省域首位城市，提出了产业对接、政策协调、互联互通、生态保护和城市服务五个方面的科学发展机制。第八，综合实证和机理的研究结论，在总结发达地区首位城市发展经验的基础上，提出中部首位城市未来发展的对策体系，重点优化城市布局、推进产城融合、推动城乡一体化、完善城市服务体系和创新体系、加强生态环境保护，以及建设跨省域城市群，由此明确了中部省域首位城市的重点建设和改革内容。综上，通过探究城市首位度同经济增长之间的关系，从理论和实证两个方面的研究，系统阐述了中部省域首位城市在区域经济中的发展状态和规律，比较分析了各省域的异同点，形成了研究视角和研究观点的创新，丰富并完善了区域经济中的城市群理论和城市规模理论，试图对城市发展理论做出深度和广度的延伸；同时希望可以给中部省域内首位城市与外围城市之间的协调发展提供一种思路，以促进中部地区城市群建设水平的提升，走出中部省域各具特色的城市化发展道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 In regional economics, urban primacy ratio is an important theory of city scaledistribution. Particularly, the primacy ratio is a more authoritative measuring standardfor metropolitan status in regional development. With the industrializationprogressing continuously in the regional economic development process, animportant phenomenon in urbanization is shown in the development road driven bythe primate city and the central city, which of an important carrier is taken the citycluster with the primate city as the core for regional development. And the rapidregional economic growth is promoted on the basis of the combination ofagglomeration effects with radiation effects. Based on the above two points, theattention should be deserved to a differential phenomenon in urbanization whilefurther exploring the regional development process in China: there are generally twocities with the similar development level in various provinces of the easterndeveloped region, that is, existing a deputy central city which can compete andcoordinate with the capital city in the aspects of that size and strength. But it is shownthat the capital city becomes the only dominance in the various provinces of themiddle developing regions, in which there is almost no secondary city that cancompare with the capital development, while the middle regions still exist some gapsin the development level with the eastern region. So, is there an inevitable linkbetween this difference in the urban structure and the economic development level?In this regard, the middle provinces are taken as the studying scope, the relationshipof the primacy ratio with the regional economic growth was set as the studyingsubject, the aim is made to explore the mechanism between the two, and scientificand efficient urban development countermeasures will be put forward.According to the above research perspective and basic research ideas, the maincontents and results of this research are in the following areas:First, the theoretical basis of the study is founded. The domestic andinternational research theories and the existing research results on urban primacy ratio are combed systematically, and the theories of central cities, urban structure andothers will be reviewed and summarized emphatically, and the relevant literatures ofurban development of some middle regions will be commented. The existingliteratures show that there are fewer literatures that specialized in studying therelationship of urban primacy ratio with the economic growth, and in which only takethe primacy ratio as a research tool, not exploring the economic factors in depth, sothat its optimal scale was seldom discussed. Hence, this study will take this as animportant breakthrough.Second, the status quo of the primate cities will be analyzed. Here generalevaluation model of competitiveness will be used, competitiveness evaluation indexsystem will be established for the primate cities of the middle provinces, the currentdevelopment strength of each primate city will be compared, the factor analysis willbe adopted. It will be ranked for the development capabilities of the primate cities inmiddle provinces, whose results show that Wuhan and Changsha ranked strongest,followed by Zhengzhou, Nanchang and Hefei, Taiyuan got the wooden spoon.Meanwhile, it will be concluded that the primate cities in the middle provinces facesome dominant problems, such as a lower level of industrial coordination andregional cooperation, the uncertain labor division, serious ecological threats andothers.Third, the changing rules of the primacy ratio. It will make use of the absoluteaverage percentage deviation in time series, respectively analyze the populationprimacy ratio and the primacy ratio for economic growth in the middle provinces,compare the practical economic development, find that the relationship of theprimacy ratios of the middle provinces with the economic growth did not fullycomply with the inverted U-shaped curve in "Williamson-Hansen Hypothesis ", andthus make up and perfect the theory,that is, considering a static assumptions existing,which can be regarded as a simple and longtime rule in the regional economictheories. The development and changes in the primacy ratio is dominated by theallocation efficiency of inherent resources converging rule.Fourth, the relationship of urban primacy ratio with the economic growth. Itfirstly solves the existence problems of the urban primacy ratio with the economic growth. By verifying the mutual causality between the two, it illustrates the primacyratio is indeed one of the reasons for the economic growth in the middle provincesand reflects more in the impact on GDP per capita, human capital accumulation stillpushing economic growth. Because the economic contributions of the primacy ratiolag behind, it still needs to make a rational allocation for human resources, thetechnical digest absorption and appropriately increase the accumulation scale toachieve rapid economic growth in the middle underdeveloped areas. Secondly itanalyzes the trend of the relationship between the primacy ratio and the economicgrowth, identifying the relationship between the two in the middle provinces withsimple linear diagrams, in which the various provinces showed their own“Williamson Curve"(such as level "S" type, the inverted "U" type or monotoneincreasing type), tentatively concluding the medium-term development trend of thetwo relationship.Fifth, the optimal scale of urban primacy ratio. Combined with other factors forregional economic growth, it will construct the regional economic growth modelincluding the primacy ratio, obtaining the values for the optimal scale of the variousprovinces by the thresholds regression analysis. The results identify the optimal valueof some provinces, the two provinces Hubei and Hunan without threshold valuesshowed their primacy ratios play a steady role in the economic growth, and there is nosignificant fluctuation. The two provinces Henan and Anhui need to further optimizethe urban structure. Both of Jiangxi and Shanxi have high value on the optimal scale,reflecting the agglomeration features of the primate cities are ever-increasing inunderdeveloped areas, also confirming that the Jiangxi policy of "Building the CoreGrowth Pole of Nanchang" has achieved some success from another aspect.Meanwhile, it also shows the limitation of taking primacy ratio as an economic factorto study.Sixth, the efficiency of regional economic growth. To ensure the key contents ofurban agglomeration in the future middle provinces, it takes resource utilizationefficiency as the study object, analyzes the utilizing degree of input factors in theeconomic field in the middle provinces, summarizes its resource allocation efficiency,drawing that the middle provinces are commonly in scale efficiency increasing stage, factors of production and productivity can be further enhanced the economic growthrate, and the enhancement of labor elements affects economic growth rate more lowly.The development of primate cities should change the traditional concepts ofpopulation, the simple expansion of scale into the broad concept of human capital,achieving total factor productivity by technological innovation. The efficientenhancements of scale rely on the comprehensive centralization of the labor force,capitals, and technology, the efficient resources usage and efficient configuration.Seventh, the mechanism of the primate cities with the regional economic growth.It will focus on the intrinsic relationship between the development of the primatecities and the economic growth. According to the gathering functions, the radiationfunctions and innovative features of the primate cities, it concludes the dynamicmechanism, transmitting mechanism and coordination mechanism of the primatecities in regional economic development. It also will respectively apply the elementmechanism diagrams in the traditional qualitative analysis and the basic modes of thegrowing upper limit, the rich getting richer and "cut-throat competition" in Systemdynamics, establishing a mechanism model of the action of the urban primacy ratio tothe economic growth, systematically describing the interaction between the variouselements of the primate city in regional development. Moreover, it proposes thescientific development mechanisms from the five aspects of the industrial connection,policy coordination, interconnection and interworking, ecological protection andurban services for the primate cities in the middle provinces.Eighth, comprehensive empirical research findings and mechanism analysis.Based on summarizing the development experience of the primate cities in developedareas, it will propose the countermeasures system for their future development of themiddle provinces, focusing on optimizing the city layout, advancing the fusion of thecity and production, promoting the integration of urban and rural areas, improving theurban service system and innovation system, strengthening environmental protectionand building inter-provincial city cluster. Thus, it makes certain of the keyconstructions and reform contents of the primate cities in the middle provinces.Above all, by exploring the relationship between urban primacy ratio andeconomic growth, this study will describe the development state and laws of the primate cities in the middle cities in the regional economy from both theoretical andempirical research, and make a comparative analysis of the similarities anddifferences in the various provinces, achieving the innovations of a researchperspective and research ideas, enriching and improving the theories of the citycluster and the city scale in regional economy. It also attempts to extend the depth andbreadth of the urban development theory; while hoping to offer an idea to thecoordinated development between the primate cities and the urban periphery cities forthe middle provinces and coordinated development to promote the city clusterconstruction level of these areas upgrading, stepping out the urbanizationdevelopment path in the various middle provinces.更多还原