【作者】 张海斌；

【导师】 周经伦；

【作者基本信息】 国防科学技术大学 ， 控制科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 流域水系统承载力研究是流域水资源可持续利用的基础性课题，事关国家或地区可持续发展。浏阳河流域水系统可持续利用问题日益紧迫和严峻，主要表现于水量不足、水质下降、受洪旱灾害威胁以及流域管理制约。因此，开展浏阳河流域水承载力及其管理研究，无论对水系统承载力的理论研究，还是解决浏阳河流域可持续发展问题，都具有十分重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文以浏阳河流域水系统为研究对象，运用系统工程方法，在提出流域水系统及其承载力概念的基础上，深入分析了浏阳河流域水系统现状及问题，采用定量与定性方法研究了浏阳河流域水系统承载力，并提出了浏阳河流域水承载力管理体系建设的建议。主要内容如下：（1）构建了流域水系统承载力研究的框架。基于系统思想，提出了流域水系统概念，分析和阐述了水系统的组成、相互关系、特征、承载功能、承载机理及其问题。在此基础上，给出了流域水系统承载力的概念，并构建了流域水系统承载力研究的技术框架，为开展流域水系统承载力研究提供理论基础。（2）对浏阳河流域水系统进行了系统深入的分析。剖析了浏阳河流域水系统的构成以及流域社会系统状况；给出了浏阳河流域水系统及其承载力的定义，构建浏阳河流域水系统承载力衡量的指标体系。利用历年的水文地理等资料统计数据，深入系统地分析了浏阳河流域水系统环境和水系统资源及问题。（3）研究了浏阳河流域水系统环境承载力。首先给出了水系统环境承载力指标的计算模型和分析方法；然后运用这些模型和分析方法对浏阳河流域水系统环境承载力进行分析，包括纳污容量、过洪安全流量和枯水期生态流量等方面的分析，得到了一些有指导意义的结论。（4）研究了浏阳河流域水系统资源承载力。建立了基于经验模态分解的时间序列预测模型，运用实际数据，对浏阳河流域人口和经济规模进行了预测。在此基础上，以人口、经济和环境为目标，建立一个多目标决策的流域水系统资源承载力优化模型。通过对该模型的求解，得到浏阳河流域水资源承载力分析的结论。（5）提出了浏阳河流域水系统承载力管理体系建设的建议。从行政、法规、信息等管理方面，提出了加强浏阳河流域水资源系统承载力管理体系建设的建议和具体措施，包括管理的目标和原则、完善浏阳河流域水资源管理体系、建立浏阳河流域洪旱灾害管理体系和水污染管理体系等。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study of river basin water carrying capacity is a fundamental issue in thesustainable use of water resources, which is a matter of national or regional sustainabledevelopment. Problems related to the sustainable use of Liuyang River Basin watersystem, including water shortage, declining of water quality, threats of flood anddrought and watershed management constraints, are becoming increasingly urgent andcritical. Therefore, a research on the water carrying capacity analysis and managementof Liuyang River Basin is of great value for both the theoretical study of water systemcarrying capacity of and solving the practical problems of sustainable developmentLiuyang River Basin.This thesis focuses on the Liuyang River basin water system. Using systemsengineering methods, we first present the concept of river basin water system and itscarrying capacity. Then we make an in-depth analysis of the Liuyang River basin watersystem status and problems, and evaluate the water system carrying capacity of theLiuyang River Basin using quantitative and qualitative methods. Finally we give somerecommendations on the carrying capacity management system construction of LiuyangRiver Basin. The main achievements are as follows:(1) We establish a research framework for the study of river basin water carryingcapacity. Based on systems thinking, we give the concept of river basin water system.Then we analyze the composition of water system as well as their relations,characteristics, carrying function, carrying mechanism and problems. Upon this analysis,we present the concept of river basin water system carrying capacity and establish aframework for the study of river basin water carrying capacity, which provides atheoretical basis for our study.(2) We make an in-depth analysis of the Liuyang River Basin water system. Weanalyze the composition of the Liuyang River Basin water system and review the statusof the social system. Then we give a definition of Liuyang River Basin water systemcarrying capacity and establish a index system to measure it. Using historic geographicand hydrological statistical data, we analyze systematically the water systemenvironmental and resource problems related to the Liuyang River Basin water system.(3) We analyze the Liuyang River Basin water system environmental carryingcapacity. First, models and methods of water system environmental carrying capacityindex are presented. Using them, we analyze the Liuyang River Basin water systemenvironment carrying capacity, including pollutant carrying capacity, safe flood flowand ecological flow in dry seasons. We draw some instructive conclusions through theanalysis.(4) We analyze the Liuyang River Basin water system resource carrying capacity. Using the empirical mode decomposition time series forecasting model as well as actualdata, the population and economic scale of the Liuyang River basin are predicted. Then,we build a multi-objective optimization model for the river basin water resourcescarrying capacity system, where the population, economic scale and environment aretreated as goals. By solving the model, we arrive at some conclusions on Liuyang RiverBasin resource carrying capacity.(5) We give some recommendations on Liuyang River Basin water system capacitymanagement. From such perspective as administrative, regulatory, and informationmanagement, we give recommendations and specific measures on strengthening theLiuyang River Basin water system capacity management, including the objectives andprinciples of management, improving the Liuyang River Basin water resourcesmanagement system, the establishment of Liuyang River flood and drought disastermanagement system and water pollution management system.更多还原