中国利率市场化研究

【作者】 谢仍明；

【导师】 王松奇；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 我国经济领域的改革已逐步从经济增长优先转为资源配置效率优先，利率市场化作为金融资源由政府管制向市场化转变的重要手段，已经成为深化金融领域改革，提升金融体系对实体经济服务能力的重要制度选择之一。在诸多相关研究将我国利率市场化过程与自由市场经济国家同项改革直接比较，认为国内利率市场化已实现“里程碑”并进入最后阶段时，本文研究指出，国内利率市场化过程仍将任重道远，远不只是放开利率水平管制如此简单，而研究的起点应回归至利率基础决定机制和实体经济的“金融选择权”上。我国金融体系的单项改革相对滞后于其他经济领域，且具备明显的外植性特征，为解决经济改革初期金融资源稀缺和经济增长战略的矛盾，金融体系是通过顶层制度设计、外生植入至实体经济的资金供求双方中的。其机制设计的前提是切断或阻碍实体经济中金融资源的直接供求关系，并使国有商业银行成为金融资源配置的主要媒介，这导致了实体经济中资金供求双方缺乏基本的“金融选择权”，即表现为内生于实体经济运行所需要的金融权利缺失，如大部分实体企业的直接融资渠道缺乏且需要严格的行政审批，居民难以直接投资各类企业债券，居民除存款及类存款产品之外缺乏金融市场参与权与配置权等，这亦使得实体企业或居民在与金融机构的竞争性定价中缺乏议价能力，如表现为商业银行在存贷款两个市场上拥有显著定价优势。在此前提下，实体经济之议价劣势与银行在存贷款市场之“卖方定价优势”是利率实质市场化难以实现的主要障碍。基于这样一个新的分析视角，本文以中国利率机制改革为研究标靶，以利率之实质市场化为衡量准则，定义了实体经济之“金融选择权”并以此为主要研究抓手，从建立理论分析的统一框架，到国内外样本的比较分析，以及从实体经济中居民、企业和金融体系中商业银行视角，运用两部门和拓展的两部门经济模型分析了内生金融体系与实体经济“金融选择权”的基本关系；讨论了金融管制和市场化条件下的利率决定机制；阐明了实体经济中最为重要的两个部门居民与企业所拥有的“金融选择权”在利率决定机制中的基本角色和作用，形成了全文的理论基础和分析逻辑。在此基础上，全文论证过程如下：第一章主要论述全文的选题背景与研究意义；第二章引入两部门和拓展的两部门经济内生金融模型，该章节关于实体经济与金融体系的理论分析，以及关于金融管制对利率决定机制的影响研究，将形成全文的理论基础与逻辑研究框架；第三章是对自由市场经济之代表美国利率市场化的剖析与观察，重点关注实体经济与金融体系在该项改革过程中的行为选择及其影响，论证了内生金融体系下实体经济拥有“充分金融选择权”对利率实质市场化的关键意义；第四章以中国主要利率市场为研究对象，着力论证我国利率体系运行现状与实质市场化定价仍然存在较大差距；第五章分析我国存贷款市场之利率决定机制，论证我国主要利率市场中，居民和企业“金融选择权”十分缺乏，利率议价权缺失导致实质利率市场化并未实现；第六章以对中国商业银行的资产负债结构和盈利结构研究为出发点，着力论证在银行“卖方优势”下我国金融市场的竞争主体单一，层次不足，银行处于显著“卖方议价优势”。第七章将研究的范围由“面”聚焦至“点”，采用案例分析补充全文论证疏漏；第八章为全文结论。本文从理论推演到实证检验，从国外样本分析到国内事实比较，重点观察了我国外植性金融体系下，金融管制对实体经济“金融选择权”，进而是利率议价能力的关键性影响。本文有望能够弥补当前多数相关研究中对中国利率市场化研究存在的理论框架缺失或不清晰、国内外样本比较缺乏前提等方面的不足，并为目前实体经济和金融体系运行中存在部分现象提供一个新的解释思路，也基于这个全新的角度论证我国利率市场化改革仍任重道远，并据此提出相关政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The priority of Chinese economic reform program has been moving from thegrowth to the allocation efficiency of resources, and interest rate liberalization hasbeen selected as one of the apt institution arrangements promoting the finance reformprogram which aims to enhancing its ability to serve real economy. Most relatedliteratures found that after the government released the control of the loan rate in2013,this reform in China has created a milestone and the remaining will be the loosing ofdeposit rate control. This study was focused on the basic interest rate determinationmechanism and made a viewpoint that there is still a long way for the realization ofinterest rate liberalization in China.Compared with other fields of economy reform, the finance reform in China wasdelayed for historical reasons. And it has the characteristic of being explanted, whichmeans that the finance institution was made and explanted by the top-down processbetween the supply and demand of finance resources in the real economy. For theneeds of economic reform and development plan, the insufficient finance resourcesshould be directed to the specified fields, and the financial system should be designedto cut the direct link between the supply and demand entities in the real economy andthe state-owned commercial banks were used to allocate the resources. Consequently,the financial right which was originally owned by the real economy were deprived.For example, the majority enterprises in China did not have enough financingchannels, and the residents were not authorized to buy the bonds directly, as well asthe deposit was the main financial assets of the residents in China. Under thebanking-oriented financial system, the administrative control, which resulted ininterest markets disintegration, as well as interest rate non-market oriented in China.And the lack of financial right for the real economy, which directly related to theexplanted and controlled finance institution, made the real economic entities had noenough bargain power in the process of interest rate pricing.Based on this new research aspect, the Chinese interest rate liberalization processwas chosen to be the object, and the true marketilization was adopted to be thestandard, as well as the financial right was employed to be the main argument content.This study raised a two-sector macroeconomic model and did more investigation onthe enhanced one. The relationship between residents and enterprises’ financial rightand the endogenous finance system was well explained and this formed the basic and instrumental argument logic in this paper.The following sections were employed to run the argument process:1. Issuesraised→2.The endogenous basic real economy model, the supply and demand of fundand the basic mechanism of interest rate determination→3.The empirical study offinancial right in free market economy status and the evidences of free interest ratedetermination mechanism→4.The gap analysis between China interest rateliberalization and the real liberalization→5.The empirical study on residents andenterprises’ financial right and their bargain power on interest ratedetermination→6.The empirical analysis on bank’s profitability and balance sheetcomponents to demonstrate the bank’s interest rate pricing advantage→7. Casestudies to be the supplementary argument. Thus the argument process will move fromtheoretical to empirical analysis, from abroad experience to domestic practices. Thekey viewpoint was that the effect of insufficient financial right under financeregulation was significant and obstacle to the realization of interest rate liberalization.This study concluded that there was still a long way to realize true interest rateliberalization and some suggestions were raised based on the analytical process.更多还原