银行理财业务机制研究

【作者】 苏薪茗；

【导师】 王国刚；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中国已进入全面的资产管理与财富管理竞争的时代，中国的银行理财业务在过去的10多年间经历了一个快速的发展过程。2013年底，银行理财产品余额达到了10.2万亿元，事实上已成为资产管理行业中规模最大、与广大居民与企业关系最为密切的金融产品。然而，银行理财产品在快速发展的同时，由于它的创新性和对传统业务的冲击，从它诞生到今天，一直伴随着巨大的争议和各种非议，不少国内外的专家学者均把银行理财业务看成是中国“影子银行”的重要组成部分，索罗斯甚至认为它是下一次中国金融危机的来源。因此，准确认识银行理财业务的内涵和外延，回顾银行理财业务的发展历程，研究银行理财业务发展的理论基础与实践原因，正视银行理财业务现有问题，对现有的产品形态、业务运作模式与盈利方式进行深入的解析，进行资产管理与财富管理的国际比较，探讨如何化解银行理财业务现有的风险与问题，积极促进银行理财业务的合理转型，对于搭建从“间接融资”走向“直接融资”的桥梁，发展更为均衡发展的金融体系，推进未来的金融体系改革和实现金融更好地服务于实体经济的目标均有着至关重要的作用。本文在分析银行理财业务的理论基础时发现，传统的资产组合理论与资产定价理论、金融中介理论、生命周期理论并不能很好地解释目前中国银行理财业务的发展原因与现状，而金融抑制与金融深化理论、委托理财理论、博弈论基础上发展起来的金融创新与监管套利理论则能够弥补这方面的不足。值得注意的是，银行理财产品在不同的发展时期中，有着不尽相同的发展特征和驱动因素：既有收入不断增长、理财意识不断增强带来的基础性需求，又有金融抑制下银行试图通过理财产品绕过监管考核指标的微观动机；既有利率市场化和金融市场不健全情况下的发展机遇，又有宏观调控和货币政策扭曲市场导致的发展方向偏离。在多种因素不断变化，互相作用的情况下，银行理财产品才从最初的结构性存款逐渐走向了“资金池－资产池”运作模式。通过对“资金池—资产池”运作模式的分析，发现银行理财产品的出现改变了间接融资的传统商业银行业务模式，但保留了与间接融资相同的通过信用利差和期限错配利差获得盈利的特征。对银行理财产品“庞氏骗局”和“影子银行”方面的批判，均未抓住问题的本质。进一步通过模型分析，发现银行开展“资金池－资产池”的方式运作理财，其利差始终是正的，并不满足“庞氏条件”，对于募集资金的使用，也并非所谓借新还旧，其背后有充足的资产作为支撑，因此，银行理财产品绝非“庞氏骗局”。而从一开始，银行理财产品延续了商业银行一贯审慎的风险偏好，信用风险审查严格，流动性控制也有多重手段，理财资金的投向也有相应的限制，整体风险水平较低，与缺少监管的、高杠杆的“影子银行”从本质和特征上都存在明显的差异。相反的，银行理财产品由于承担了过多的银行自营的相关任务，代客理财和银行自营的界限始终模糊，银行理财逐渐成为了“银行的影子”。从国际经验来看，国外的银行在开展资产管理和财富管理业务时，是以“客户为中心”，依靠提供全面的财富管理服务来获取客户长期的信任，在此基础开展资产管理业务。相比之下，我国的资产管理和财富管理业务仍然处于发展的初级阶段，呈现出“以产品为中心”的特征。由于资产管理业务是主要的收入来源，因此银行过度强调资产管理端的发展，而忽略了客户关系的维护与保持，并逐步出现了“刚性兑付”的困局和同质化竞争加剧的现状，资产管理和财富管理的发展呈现出相互脱节的局面。虽然银行理财产品存在着一些风险，银行理财顾问服务也面临诸多问题，但银行理财产品总体风险可控，银行理财顾问服务也有明显的进展。银行理财业务在国内的资产管理和财富管理中占据着重要地位和作用，规范银行理财业务的关键不在于消灭此类业务，而在于引导银行理财业务合理转型。而合理转型不仅需要推动利率市场化改革，调整监管指标，打击监管套利等外部监管和市场环境的改进，而且需要确立理财业务转型的“栅栏原则”，进行理财业务运营主体的事业部建设，实现产品形态从“资金池—资产池”模式的业务运作模式向规范的资产管理转型,实现银行理财顾问服务从简单的代销金融产品到全面财富管理的转型。通过分析银行理财业务与实体经济和金融体系改革的关系，本文认为未来中国经济增长中将呈现出国际化、城镇化和混合所有制经济特征。与实体经济相适应的金融体系改革提出许多重要的目标，特别是要大力发展直接融资。银行理财业务有力地支持了实体经济的增长，并对发展直接融资具有重要的推动作用，银行已从过去简单的信用综合发展成为综合的金融中介。在新的形势下，银行理财业务既面临挑战，更面临机遇。既要看到风险的存在，同时也要看到通过转型，解决“隐性担保”和“刚性兑付”等问题，真正实现产品的透明和规范，建立为客户提供全面金融服务的财富管理体系，银行理财业务将成为搭建从“间接融资”走向“直接融资”的重要桥梁。更多还原

【Abstract】 The asset management and wealth management industry has come into an era ofcompetition. In the past decade, the wealth management products (WMPs) of banksemerged from null rapidly. By the end of2013, the balance of WMPs has reached10.2trillion Yuan, taking the largest market share in the Chinese asset management industry(as20%trust balance comes from WMPs). WMPs have become the most familiarfinancial products to the general public. The development of WMPs, however, has longbeen companied by critiques and debates as it greatly challenged the traditionalbusiness of commercial banks. Practitioners and researchers regard WMPs as part ofthe “shadow banking system” and Sorrows even indicated that WMPs might be thesource of next financial crisis. Therefore, it is of great importance to have a thoroughstudy of the history and the business model of WMPs. It will be of great use tounderstand the theoretical and practical reason of the development of WMPs. Bycomparing the asset management wealth management around the world, this study willalso indicate the way of reforms with regard to the wealth management services tocater the needs of the economy and financial system in the future by solving thepotential problem of WMPs and build up the tunnel for the transition from indirectfinancing to direct financing.In the literature review, we find out traditional theories (e.g. portfolio theory,CAPM, financial intermediary theory, life cycle theory, etc.) cannot well explain thereason and status of WMPs. New theories with regards to financial innovation andregulatory arbitrage such as financial repression and financial deepening theory, gametheory, etc. can give better explanations. It is necessary to point out that differentdriving factors affect the development wealth management services in different stagesand result in different properties of the whole market. The increasing personal wealthcreate the fundamental demand for WMPs, while regulatory arbitrage, interest rateliberalization as well as the deflection of macro policies worked together to bringWMPs to where it is now.By analyzing the “Money-Asset Pool” model of WMPs, we find out that WMPsare different from the indirect financing model of traditional commercial banks butthey are still making profit though term structure and credit spread. Thus it is not proper to say that WMPs has achieved the transition from indirect financing to directfinancing. Instead, they somehow make the investor and creditor closer and WMPs arethe tunnel of the transition. Critiques on WMPs mainly argue that WMPs are kind of“Ponzi Game” or part of “Shadow Banking”. These Critiques has misunderstood theWMPs and haven’t got the point of the real problem. On one hand, the spread ofWMPs has been constantly positive which meet the requirement of non-Ponzicondition. All the raised funds are fully backed by a well diversified portfolio in the“Asset Pool”. On the other hand, WMPs has been supervised by authorities with astrict credit check, liquidity control and prudent risk preference inherited in the natureof commercial banks. Instead of being part of the “Shadow Banking” system, WMPsare much more like the “shadow of banks” as it has been assigned too many tasksrelated to the proprietary business of banks.Banks aboard such as UBS, Citi, HSBC put FPS to the first priority to win theclients’ trust and to gain a stable long-term client relationship in wealth managementactivities. Clients are the main focus. With the strong client relationship, widespectrums of financial products are provided to construct a proper portfolio for theclients. In China, on the contrary, the place of wealth management and assetmanagement has been swapped. Banks in China paid too many attentions to the assetmanagement leg while ignored the maintenance of customer relationships withoutwhich WMPs and FPS are separated.WMPs are facing some risks. FPS is also facing various problems. Yet the risks arecontrollable. There are progresses in FPS companied by the development of privatebanks. As WMPs and FPS are playing more and more important roles, to regulate is toguide its way to a suitable business model, not to squeeze WMPs out of the market. Itis a transition requiring not only the development of external market and regulatoryenvironment to push forward the interest liberalization and distinguish regulatoryarbitrage, but also the establishment of the ring fencing between asset management andproprietary business of the banks. Business Unit regime might be needed to completethe transition from WMPs to modern wealth management and to replace the“Money-Asset Pool” model with real asset management products,the financialplanning services(FPS) also needs to transform from the simple product sales agent tocomprehensive wealth management serivcs.In a review of the path of economy growth model and the target of financial reform, we conclude that urbanization, globalization and mixed ownerships will be themain characteristics of future economy growth in China. To cater the need of futureeconomy growth, the financial reform has multi targets among which the developmentof direct financing is emphasized. WMPs has strongly supported the economy growthby promoting the development of direct financing. Thanks to the WMPs, banks havetransformed from traditional credit intermediaries to versatile financial intermediaries.WMPs are facing both chances and challenges. By transforming the business model,implicit guarantee problem can be solved and forced imbursement will disappear. Amore transparent and regulated system will be established to provide comprehensivefinancial services. The wealth management services of banks will build up the bridgebetween indirect financing to direct financing.更多还原