国际收支调整的不对称性研究

【作者】 石淇玮；

【导师】 李扬；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 金融学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 自布雷顿-森林体系确立美元作为全球储备货币地位以来，储备货币国家和非储备货币国家国际收支调整不对称性就成为国际货币体系的核心矛盾。本文建立了IS－LM－BP扩展模型，系统分析了储备货币国家国际收支调整的不对称性，着重描述了不对称性的四种典型情况，并以不对称性为研究视角，创造性重述了自布雷顿-森林体系以来国际货币体系的变迁，按照不对称性的发展将国际货币体系分成四个阶段，分别从“储备货币国家”、“非储备货币国家”和“国际货币体系的重要议题”三个维度详细分析了不同阶段造成不对称性发展的重要事件、对储备货币国家和非储备货币国家各自的影响以及国际货币体系解决不对称性所作的努力。本文的基本思路是：当国际货币体系以单一主权货币作为本位货币时，全球对国际储备货币的需求总和就是储备货币国家国际收支逆差总额，储备货币国家可以通过印发货币为其国际收支逆差融资，从而将调整成本转嫁给非储备货币国家，这是国际收支调整不对称性的核心所在。随着全球经济的不断发展，全球对储备货币量的需求不断增加，储备货币国家转嫁调整成本的能力和对全球经济的影响力也就不断增强。而广大非储备货币国家，被动接受储备货币国家经济政策的冲击，在遭受国际收支逆差时，由于外部融资能力有限，加之“货币错配”的风险，极易出现国际收支危机。文章认为，储备货币国家和非储备货币国家国际收支调整的不对称性是全球经济不断失衡的根源，也是发展中国家频繁发生国际收支危机的重要原因。从短期来看，应该通过国际政策协调，对储备货币国家货币政策进行一定硬约束，使之承担应有的调整责任，并在发展中国家出现国际收支危机时给予必要的援助。从长期来看，建立多元化国际货币竞争机制应是国际货币体系改革的方向。近些年来为应对国际金融危机各国央行采取的国际货币互换措施将对全球国际货币体系改革具有重要的意义。对于发展中国家而言，发展中国家处于国际收支调整不对称性的弱势地位，导致发展中国家在应对外部冲击时承担了过多不应由自身承担的调整成本。解决发展中国家经济长期稳定增长的关键，从外部看，要建立公正的国际货币体系，解决好“国际最后贷款人”问题；从内部看，要提高动员国内储蓄的能力，依靠“自己的钱”解决问题。中国作为非储备货币国家，虽然成功抵御了多次金融危机的冲击，但是付出的成本也是巨大的，即金融资源配置效率低下和经济结构严重失衡。对于中国经济发展而言，当前最重要的两项任务，对内是推动经济发展方式转变，对外是推动人民币国际化。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the establishment of the Bretton Woods System with the U.S. dollar as theglobal reserve currency, the asymmetry in the balance of payments adjustmentbetween reserve currency country and non-reserve currency countries has become thecore issue of the international monetary system. This Article hereunder introduces theIS-LM-BP extended model, provides a comprehensive examination of the asymmetryof reserve currency country’s balance of payments adjustment, describes four typicalcases of the asymmetry and reinstates the transition of the international monetarysystem originated from the Bretton Woods System, wherein further divides the saidtransition into four stages in the light of the development of asymmetry, and exploresthe milestone events that leads to the development of asymmetry in every stage, theimpacts on the reserve currency country and non-reserve currency countriesrespectively, the efforts the international community made to resolve the asymmetryfrom the three dimensions of “Reserve Currency Country”,“Non-reserve CurrencyCountry” and “the Important Topics of International Monetary System”.The rationale of this Article is that, when a single sovereign currency becomes thestandard currency of the international monetary system, the global demand forinternational reserve currency is the sum of the total balance of payments deficits ofthe reserve currency country. By virtue of this, the reserve currency country couldfinance its international payments deficit through printing money, and pass on the costof adjustment to the non-reserve currency countries, which is the core reason of theasymmetry of balance of payments. In this context, the majority of non-reservecurrency countries could only passively bear the adverse impacts which are inflictedby the reserve currency country’s policies. Given the limited capacity of financing and“currency mismatch”, non-reserve currency countries are prone to the balance ofpayments crisis.This article points that, asymmetry is the root cause of global economic imbalanceand also the essential reason for the frequent occurrence of the balance of paymentscrisis in developing countries. In the short term, we should proactively constrain thereserve currency country’s monetary policy through international policy coordination so as to impose the responsibility of adjustment and necessary assistance on itespecially when the balance of payments crisis occurs to developing countries. In thelong term, we should establish a diversified international monetary competitionmechanism, which is the right direction of reform of the international monetarysystem. In recent years, the currency swap lines as the measures taken by the centralbanks of various countries to deal with the international financial crisis would havegreat significance for such reform.For developing countries, as in the weak position of balance of paymentsadjustment, have to bear too much adjustment cost when they confront externalshocks. The key to maintaining the long-term stable growth for developing countries,from the outside, is to establish a just international monetary system, to solve the“international lender of last resort” issue; from the inside, is to improve the ability tomobilize domestic savings, relying on “its own money” to solve problems. AlthoughChina, as a non-reserve currency country, successfully resisted the impacts of manyfinancial crisis, paid huge cost, which are extremely inefficient allocation of financialresources and serious distortions in the economic structure. As far as China’seconomic development is concerned, the top two priorities are: from the inside, topromote the transformation of economic development mode, from the outside, topromote the internationalization of the CNY.更多还原