公共政策视角下的中国养老地产研究

【作者】 聂建明；

【导师】 邹东涛；

【作者基本信息】 中国社会科学院研究生院 ， 国民经济学， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 根据联合国对人口老龄化的定义，当一个国家或地区60岁以上人口所占比例达到或超过总人口数的10%，或者65岁以上人口达到或超过总人口数的7%，表明这个国家或地区进入老龄化社会。按照这一衡量标准，中国从2000年开始步入到老龄化社会。与世界上其他国家相比，中国的老龄化具有老年人口基数大、增速快、需长期照护的老年人口持续增长等突出特点。与此同时，随着计划生育基本国策的实施以及经济社会转型、人口流动加速、妇女就业参与率提高等因素的推动，中国的家庭规模日趋小型化，传统的家庭养老功能大大弱化。为了应对不断增长的养老需求，近年来，我国陆续出台了一系列政策，旨在推进社会化养老，积极支持民间资本兴办养老服务机构。在这一背景下，一种以“养老+地产”为基本特征的复合产业模式——养老地产在市场上开始出现，并迅速引来各路资本竞相角逐。发达国家的实践经验表明，养老地产可以成为一种非常有效的社会化养老服务模式。但在中国，养老地产究竟在多大程度上能够承载养老服务功能，目前看来仍然是一个很大的未知数，市场上也鲜有成功的实践案例。由于冠上了“房地产”标签，社会公众乃至政府对养老地产一时也难以摆脱传统的认知，导致养老地产的社会舆论环境与政策环境面临很大的不确定性。在现有文献中，研究者的兴趣基本都集中在探讨养老地产开发运营模式、投融资模式等商业性问题，缺乏深入到理论层面或政策设计高度的相关研究。笔者认为，作为一个新兴行业/产业，探索养老地产的不同商业模式，对于行业发展模式的确立和定位固然重要，但如果仅限于此，而对养老地产的基础性理论问题弃之不顾，则必然无法应对和解决养老地产在中国遭遇的发展困境和认知误区，不利于养老地产的可持续发展。基于此，本论文尝试从公共政策的视角，对养老地产在中国发展的相关基础性问题展开研究。与现有文献相比，本文的主要工作和特色包括如下几个方面：第一，以美国、日本和英国三个国家为考察对象，较为系统地介绍了养老地产的国际发展经验，并构建起了养老地产的比较分析框架。与现有文献在介绍养老地产国际发展经验时主要关注商业模式的风格相比。本论文更加注重对养老地产总体发展现状、历史演变过程及其政策支持体系的梳理和比较，以此总结养老地产实践和政策支持体系的一般性规律和差异性，从而为研究中国的养老地产问题提供逻辑一致的分析框架。第二，初步对养老地产的性质进行了理论解读。本文分析了中国养老地产在发展过程中所遭遇的困境和发展误区，发现这一问题在行业内部、社会与政府三个层面都有体现。在行业层面，关于养老地产的盈利模式、覆盖的服务对象以及产品类型等在定位上都还不明晰；在社会层面，由于受传统观念或社会舆论的束缚，相当部分的老人对于入住养老机构存有犹豫，普通社会公众也还可能对养老地产抱有偏见。而政府的政策环境仍然高度不确定，实践中政策上下不一、前后不一致的现象时有发生。笔者认为，上述现象需要深入到理论的高度进行解读。论文从公共品理论与行业/产业属性两个视角对养老地产的性质进行了分析。基于公共品理论视角的分析认为，养老地产是一种具有外部性的私人品或具有竞争性的准公共品。基于此，养老地产在理论上应获得政府的支持，但支持的方式和力度可以根据养老地产的种类有所不同。而基于行业/产业属性视角的分析认为，养老地产属于新兴行业，而且，由于牵涉的经济活动广泛，因而在国民经济体系中具备发展成重要产业的基础。但是，由于其复合型的产业特性以及地产业务和养老业务的分离，因此，在理论上很难依据常规的行业分类体系对养老地产的行业属性进行明确的界定，这一点容易引发社会公众乃至政府对养老地产的认识模糊不清。第三，对中国养老地产的政策体系设计框架进行了研究。国内目前在探讨养老地产政策时，基本上都是针对具体的某一项政策或几项政策展开的。本论文在研究中国养老地产的政策时，侧重的是如何构建一个政策体系框架，以及在设计这一政策框架上所依赖的思想与思路，分析的视角定位较高。基于这一目标，本文所构建的中国养老政策体系，是以融合顶层设计与地方实验两种思想为主体，分别由界定中央和地方的事权责任、促进政府与社会的互动以及确定政策完善的优先顺序三个有机部分组成的政策框架。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Unite Nations(UN) definite population aging as the proportion of thepopulation aged60and over exceeds10%of the total population, or the proportion ofthe population aged65and over exceeds7%of the total population in a country or aregion. According to UN’s standard of aging, China has become an aging societysince year2000. Compared with other countries in the world, the aging process ofChina’s population has several prominent features, such as a large base, rapidlygrowing and the huge need for long-term care. At the same time, due to the familyplanning policy, socioeconomic development and transformation and more womenparticipating in the labor market, the family size of China is much smaller than before.As a result, the traditional family support system for the elderly is quickly weakening.In response to the growing need for elderly care, China has promulgated a series ofpolicies aimed at promoting the Social Support System for the Elderly (hereinafterreferred to as SSSE) and encourage independent sectors to provide facilities-basedcare services for the elderly. Under this context, a new kind of real estate type, namely,Elderly Housing with care (hereinafter referred to as EHC) appears on the housingmarket. Now, the emerging industry is attracting various sources of investments.The practical experience of developed countries shows that the EHC can becomean effective tool of SSSE. But in China, what extent the EHC can carry elderly careservice is still unknown, there is also few success case in the market. Because oftabbed on “Real Estate”, the majority of the public and even government hold thetraditional view on EHC, so, the public opinion environment and policy environmentfaced by EHC is greatly uncertainty. In the existing literatures, most researchers focuson the business topics such as operation model, investment model and financing mode.However, there is little research about theoretical investigation and policy analysis. Asan emerging industry, it’s absolutely necessary to explore the business model of EHC.But, if we ignore the theoretical foundation issues, it will inevitably unable to copewith and solve the troubles and social misunderstandings encountered by EHC, it isobviously not conducive to the sustainable development of EHC.Based on the above, this paper attempts to take the perspective from publicpolicy, investigates on the fundamental issues related to the EHC development inChina. Compared with the existing literatures, the main works and the primary contributions of this paper contain the following points:Firstly, taking USA, Japan and UK as the study cases, I introduce theinternational experiences of the development of EHC. The paper also establishes acomparative analysis framework of EHC. The researchers prefer to introduce thebusiness management contents of EHC in the existing literatures. But in this paper, Ipay more attention to the overall current situation, historical evolution process andpolicy support system. I want to summarize the general rules and diversities of EHCbased on more systematic international comparisons, and also provide a consistentlogical framework to study the EHC in China.Secondly, I put forward a primary theoretical interpretation to the nature of EHC.At the first step, I classify the troubles and misunderstandings faced by EHC to threelevels: the industrial orientation, the public perception and the government policy. Theauthor suggests that these phenomena need to be explained in theoretically. Twoperspectives were provided. The first is based on public good theory, and the secondis from the industry property. From the perspective of pubic theory, the EHC can betreated as a private good with external effect or a quasi-public good, so, theoretically,EHC should acquire governments’ support. But the support may be various due to thedifferent kinds of EHC. From the perspective of industry property, I find it’s hard toclearly define the industry classification, because the real estate business and elderlycare service are two separated economic activities in a typical EHC sector.Thirdly, I design a policy framework for ECH in China. In discussing the policyissues related to EHC in China, the usual idea is selecting some specific policies toanalyze. In contrast, this paper focuses on how to design and establish a policyframework, as well as the thoughts and theoretical foundations behind the policyframework. With this objective, the policy framework integrates the two big reformthoughts since the reform and opening-up, i.e., top-down design and local experiment.It contains three organic compositions: classifying the responsibilities between centraland local government, promoting interactions between the government and society aswell as determining the policy priorities.更多还原