【作者】 谢建中；

【导师】 杨育； 陈振国；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 工业工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 随着市场经济和信息技术的发展，人们的生活及消费水平越来越高，人们对电子产品的需求个性化、多样化导致生产成本逐渐上升。为最大满足客户需求和保持企业的竞争优势，我国电子产品行业的OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer,原始设备制造商)企业正向ODM (Original Design Manufacturer,原始设计制造商)企业转型升级。ODM模式作为一种由一家公司根据另一家公司的需求来设计和生产产品的多方参与生产模式，其客户不仅仅是市场终端的消费者，也包含了与其合作的相关企业，甚至还包括企业内部的各个部门。ODM生产模式下，客户及产品种类繁多，需求信息数量庞大，使得电子产品的需求管理面临挑战。因此，能否准确掌握完整、真实的电子产品需求信息？能否将需求有效地转换为企业产品开发的工程对策？能否对工程对策构成的多套产品概念方案进行评价选优？能否对产品市场需求量进行预测？这一系列的能力打造是OEM向ODM转型升级的企业能否快速响应客户需求的前提和基础，是推动OEM向ODM转型升级成功的动力。目前，在电子产品行业中，有关需求管理的研究主要分布在需求分析、需求转换、需求预测等独立问题的研究上，尚未形成较为完善的电子产品全生命周期需求管理的理论体系。鉴于此，本文在系统研究需求分析、需求转换、方案评价和需求预测方法的基础上，针对电子产品行业的客户需求特点，对面向ODM的电子产品需求管理体系的构建及关键技术进行深入研究。本文主要的研究内容包括以下几个部分：第一章及第二章，对面向ODM的电子产品需求管理体系进行研究。首先，对需求的分类和特点、需求管理的内涵进行分析；然后，结合ODM模式下电子产品需求特点，在分析一般需求管理体系内涵的基础上，构建面向ODM的电子产品需求管理体系研究框架，提出面向ODM的电子产品需求管理体系，包括内容体系、技术体系和过程体系。第三章，提出基于FCM和IGA的客户需求分析方法。首先，对关联模型的建立和模型求解等技术进行分析；然后，针对ODM模式下电子产品需求的显性和隐性特点，一方面，从PLC(Product Life Cycle,产品寿命周期)全集内获取显性客户需求信息，另一方面基于FCM (Fuzzy Congnitive Map,模糊认知图)构建隐性客户需求与产品特征的关联模型，基于IGA(Immune genetic algorithm,免疫遗传算法)对关联模型求解，实现隐性客户需求挖掘；最后，在对合成需求进行模糊度量的基础上，利用FCM和IGA方法进行需求聚类分析，得到最终的客户需求信息。第四章，对客户需求转换方法进行研究。首先在分析需求转换方法—质量功能展开和工程对策优化—多目标规划等方法的基础上，结合ODM生产模式的特征探讨QFD (Quality Function Deployment,质量功能展开)中的若干问题并提出改进QFD的需求转换方法；然后，综合考虑市场竞争力情况、需求类型以及“卖点”三方面影响因素，对客户需求重要度进行调整，确定客户需求的最终重要度，并在此基础上确定工程对策，计算其重要度；最后，在考虑企业资源约束的前提下，构建工程对策的多目标优模型，采用FCM和免疫遗传算法得到帕累托解集，并对帕累托解集进行排序，得到多个备选产品概念方案。第五章，提出基于F-EAHP的电子产品概念方案评价方法。首先，对产品概念方案评价方法-F-EAHP(Fuzzy-Extension analytic hierarchy process,模糊可拓层次分析法)进行分析；然后，结合电子产品的特点从消费者、企业客户和企业角度构建一套电子产品概念方案评价指标体系；最后，结合可拓理论与模糊综合评价理论的优点，建立基于F-EAHP的产品概念方案评价模型，以实现电子产品概念方案的评价及最佳方案的选择。第六章，对电子产品市场需求预测方法进行研究。首先，对电子产品市场需求预测的特点和方案，以及模糊聚类-粗糙集、系统相似度量方法和BASS模型等方法进行分析；然后针对电子产品市场需求预测数据缺乏的特点，在选择类比法的基础上提出基于特征重要性的产品相似度度量方法；最后，在综合考虑消费者购买偏好和季节性影响等主客观因素对需求的影响的情况下对BASS模型进行改进，提出基于改进BASS的电子产品市场需求预测模型，以实现产品市场需求量的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of market economy and information technology, people’sliving conditions and consumption levels are rising. The demands for electronicproducts personalization and diversification have led to the gradual rise in productioncosts. To maximize the customers’ needs and to maintain the company’s competitiveadvantages, the electronic industries in China are transferring from OEM (OriginalEquipment Manufacturer) to ODM (Original Design Manufacturer). As a participatoryproduction mode, ODM means that a company designs and manufactures products arein accordance with the needs of another company. The ODM companies’ clients arenot only the end consumers, but also the relevant enterprises and their partners, eventheir various internal departments. Under an ODM production mode, a wide range ofcustomers and a large amount of information needs make electronic products demandmanagement a challenge. Therefore, the ability to accurately grasp all the demands forthe electronic products information, the effectiveness of tranforming the demands tothe engineering countermeasures, the evaluation and selection for multiple products’designs, as well as the prediction of products’ market demands will be the premise andfoundations for companies to respond quickly to customer demands while transferringto ODM from OEM, and the power for them to improve ODM.Currently, in the electronic industries, the research on demand management mainlyin the areas of demand analysis, demand conversion, demand forecasting and otherindependent research issues, has not yet formed a more comprehensive theoreticalsystem of electronic products lifecycle demand management. Owing to this, based on asystematical study of demand analysis, the demand conversion, program evaluationand demand forecasting methods, the construction of an electronic products demandmanagement system for ODM mode and its associated key technologies were studiedaccording to the characteristics of customer demands in the electronic industries.This paper includes the following chapters:In Chapter1and2, the electronic products demand management system for ODMmode was studied. First of all, the classification and characteristics of demands and theconnotation of demand management were analyzed. Then, based on the analysis of theconnotation of general requirements management system, combining with thecharacteristics of electronic products demands in ODM mode, the electronic products demand management system for ODM mode were put forward, including theframework of demand management technology solutions, the content system ofdemand management and the electronic products demand management process system.In Chapter3, the customer demands analysis method which is based on FCM andIGA was put forward. First of all, the establishment of the associated model and thesolution to the model were analyzed. Then, in view of the explicit and implicitcharacteristics of electronic products in the ODM mode, the dominant customerdemands information was obtained from the PLC (Product Life Cycle). Meanwhile,based on FCM (Fuzzy Congnitive Map) recessive correlation model of customer needsand product characteristics as well as the IGA (Immune genetic algorithm) correlationmodel, the mining of recessive customer demands was realized. Finally, on the basis offuzzy measures for synthetic demands using the method of FCM and IGA clusteringanalysis of demands, the final customer demands information was obtained.Chapter4focuses on the method of converting customer demands. Firstly, basedon the method of demand tranformation—QFD (Quality Function Deployment) andthe method of optimizing the plan--multi-objective programming, the disadvantages ofthe old style QFD were researched and a modified QFD in the ODM circumstance wasput forward. Secondly, the importance of consumer demands was adjusted by takingmarket competition, the types of consumer demands and selling points into account.And then the engineering countermeasures and their importance were decided. Lastly,in light of the constraints of corporations’ resources, the model of optimizing theconstruction countermeasures was made and Pareto disaggregation with FCM and IGAwas achieved.In Chapter5, an evaluation method on electronics designing projects, which arebased on F-EAHP (Fuzzy-Extension analytic hierarchy process), was presented. Firstly,the evaluation method was analyzed. And then the evaluation systems with the productcharacteristics were made for consumers, clients and corporations respectively. Lastly,an evaluation model based on F-EAHP using the theory of extension and fuzzycomprehensive evaluation was applied in order to implement the evaluations ofelectronics designing and the selection of the best project.In Chapter6, the method of the electronics market demand prediction was studied.First, the features of and solutions to the electronic products demand forecast as well asfuzzy clustering-rough set, the similarity measure system, BASS model and othermethods were analyzed; then, due to the lack of demand forecasting data for electronic products, the product similarity metrics based on the importance of productcharacteristics were put forward by using the selection and analogy methods. Finally,BASS model was improved by considering the subjective and objective factors’ impactson demands such as the consumer buying preferences and seasonal effects. Meanwhile,the demand prediction model for electronic products based on improved BASS wasproposed to achieve the forecast of the product requirements.更多还原