【作者】 李雪松；

【导师】 冉光和；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 中国的分权改革被普遍认为是引致经济增长奇迹的一个关键性制度安排，但是在理论研究与实证分析上，财政分权对中国农业经济增长的绩效并不明确。在财政分权的制度框架下，基于地方政府行为视域和中国的经验实证，系统考察农业经济增长绩效具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。鉴于中国政治上高度集权，经济上适度分权的发展中农业大国，本研究聚焦财政分权制度是否可以激励地方政府及其官员促进农业农村发展的积极性，进而改变城市偏向的政策设计，缩小城乡差距，有效推动农业可持续增长层面上。论文将财政分权、政府竞争、官员政治晋升等理论引入到农业经济增长研究视域中，尝试建立财政分权、政府竞争（官员晋升）与农村公共品、农业经济增长关系与效应的理论框架，立足财政职能视角，即在资源配置、收入分配和经济增长与稳定三个维度上，揭示财政分权对农村公共品供给、农业经济增长影响的作用机理，探寻中国农业与农村经济高质量增长和城乡发展一体化的运行机制，实施模式与调控政策。研究的主要结论概述如下：①中国式分权制度变量对农村公共品供给具有效率差异。国际通行的分权变量并未有效促进地方政府农村义务教育的公共支出。中国式分权变量对农村福利社保公共品都具有显著而稳健的供给效应。中央转移支付并未有效促进农村医疗公共品供给，地方政府财政自给率供给效应不显著，但地方政府对中央转移支付“粘蝇纸效应”明显。政府竞争对农村基础教育具有显著的负向激励。反腐败增强了农村基础教育的有效提供，但减少了福利保障供给，说明地方政府在农村公共品供给上具有腐败寻租的空间。城镇化对农村基础教育、卫生保健和福利社保公共品均具有显著的供给效应。经济增长水平与新农村建设政策变量也是影响农村公共品供给效应的重要因素并呈现差异性。②尝试将中国式分权、农业经济增长与城乡收入差距架构在新制度经济学分析框架之下，进行多变量协整与向量误差修正模型（VECM）分析后发现：变量间具有显著的长期均衡关系与短期动态调节机制。城乡收入差距具有反向自身修正机制，但修正能力较弱。农业经济增长对城乡居民收入差距的影响呈现波动递减趋势。分权短期内会产生正向冲击，加剧城乡收入差距，但长期内会缓解差距，最后进行了VAR模型的静态与动态预测，这些发现对缩小城乡收入差距提供了有益启示与治理策略。③运用DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法，对1978-2011年省级农业TFP进行了数量测算与系统分解，并细致考察了其时序演变差异、地理空间分布与分组增速效率等特征。测算发现：农业TFP增长源泉主要是由技术进步率与技术效率双轮驱动的，但技术效率的驱动作用有限。农业TFP与技术进步率指数呈顺周期变化，与技术效率指数有逆周期波动阶段。农业TFP效率变动具有比较严重的地理空间上的非均衡性。省际间各指数差异显著，农业技术效率指数全国各区域普遍不高，中西部地区的农业前沿技术进步率是比较糟糕的，但各主要效率指数直辖市增长效应显著。农业TFP及其分解指数“发散效应”明显，“收敛效应”与“外溢效应”趋势不显著。除了要素输入，经营模式创新更显重要，“双轮驱动”应成为未来中国农业经济增长方式转变与可持续发展的路径轨迹。④对农业生产效率各指数变动的影响因素进行了计量分析，研究表明：地方政府行为因素影响非均衡，对提升农业TFP正向冲击效应显著，但对农业技术效率和纯技术效率影响为负，对农业前沿技术进步率与农业规模效率影响不显著。农业总产值占比增加对农业前沿技术进步负向作用明显，但对提升农业技术效率和纯技术效率正向作用机制显著，说明目前的农业经济增长依旧沿袭粗放式增长模式，并形成了路径依赖。农业人力资本存量具有正向提升效应。农业生产绩效受非粮食作物播种面积，自然灾害等因素制约显著。城镇化率与农业技术效率、农业纯技术效率、农业规模效率显著正相关。工业化对农业技术进步率正效应明显，却恶化了农业规模效率。政策启示在于完善顶层制度设计，激励地方政府支农行为，坚持城乡一体、工农互惠，向农业部门输入现代生产要素与经营模式。⑤通过构建中国式分权的新制度经济学分析框架，理论分析地方政府财政支农、农村金融发展与生产要素投入对农业经济增长绩效变动的作用机制。实证研究结果显示：农业经济增长呈现明显的累积滞后效应，受政策驱动显著。分权的增长效应明显，具有跨时与区域差异特征。城乡金融发展非均衡与金融财政化引致农村金融功能拓展受到抑制，阻碍了农业经济增长，农村金融与实体经济部门之间良性互动机制不显著。地方政府财政农业投入和农村金融的协调与配合具有显著的增长效应，明显大于单纯财政支农的效力。宏观经济形势，农业能源消耗与农业经济增长的联系日益紧密。研究的政策建议简述如下：第一，推进治理体系和治理能力现代化，完善公共财政支农运行机制。首先，政府的财政行为应建立在宪政和法治的基石之上，逐渐改变通过中央的“决定”“通知”和“一号文件”等形式，而应借助正式的法律规范加以调整。其次，注重分权契约与财政体制的内在稳定性，避免分权与财政体制的频繁变动所引致的低效率。一方面，应改变目前财政支农“一级政府，一级财政”的约束，借鉴“省管县”和“乡财县管”的试点经验，积极稳妥推行财政支农“中央——省级——县级”支出层级，提高财政体制运行效率和财政资源配置的公平性。另一方面，地方政府应改革财政支农资金分配与管理体制，整合各类支农部门，明确部门职责，进行农业投资管理体制与运行机制的创新，并加强地方人大、政协与纪委等部门对农业投入资金的审计和监督。克服地方政府财政支农政策的执行偏差，提高投入产出绩效。最后是规模提升，结构优化，形成财政支农的优先序机制，确保财政资金输入到最需要的部门与领域。第二，匹配事权与财权，建立财政支农预算硬约束机制。在保证中央宏观调控的基础上，减少共享税种和共享比例，适度降低中央财权，增强地方政府的财权财力，使他们有能力执行中央政府的“三农”事权安排。其次是按照财权与事权相对称的原则，清晰界定中央政府与地方政府财政农业支出的支出责任边界，同时完善地方税体系，赋予地方政府更大的发债权。地方政府应精简行政层级架构，减少政府运行成本，转变政府职能。促进预算的法治化与规范化，增强预算的法律约束力，刚性要求财政支农预算的绝对与相对增长幅度，预算编制、审批、执行和监督应有明确操作主体和职责边界。改变城市偏向的财政预算支出导向，增加直接促进农业生产要素投入的项目支出，提高农业生产性投资、人力资本和技术投资、农村公共服务投资的比重。建立更加严格的土地出让金硬约束机制，严格规制地方政府疯狂卖地，占用耕地的“掠夺之手”。建立参与式预算制度，将财政支农资金收支活动全部纳入预算审查和社会监督范畴之内。第三，优化转移支付，实施城乡发展一体化模式。中央政府应对以往扶贫倾斜式的无条件转移支付进行绩效评估，克服低水平的财力均衡，创新中央转移支付绩效评价指标体系。其次，实行有配套条件或比例的转移支付，简化转移支付环节，提高转移资金利用效率。中央政府应建立转移支付的瞄准再分配机制，提高对落后省区农村公共品转移支付的精度和力度，对于外溢性较强的农村公共品，建立专项支付。再次，完善省级以下的转移支付制度，建立转移支付统一拨付渠道和透明的信息发布平台。消除制约城乡发展一体化的主要障碍，首先要促进城乡公共产品与服务供给均等化，提高城乡公共品供给的效率和质量，由地方政府主导城乡公共品配置权。坚持城乡公平统一的财政政策，构建城市对农村的制度与政策反哺，物质资本反哺，人力资本等反哺机制。最后是创新农地产权制度，切实保障农民的土地增值收益，探索农民增加财产性收入的渠道。第四，向农业输入现代化的生产要素与经营模式。“双轮驱动”模式应成为未来中国农业经济增长方式转变与可持续发展的路径轨迹。通过财政，金融和保险等扶植政策，降低农业新技术的使用门槛，促进农业技术进步扩散与传播，构建工业化、信息化与农业生产效率的技术转移与良性协调互动机制。充分认识农业生产的周期规律性，加强农业基础设施建设，建立生态、低碳的现代农业。在确保粮食安全的前提下，加快推进农业产业内部结构调整与升级，完善农业保险机制，增强农业抵御丰产欠收，谷贱伤农等市场风险能力。完善激励与约束机制，推广适度规模经营，大力发展家庭农场，培育新型农业经营主体。建立城乡一体化的就业创业市场，构建高质量的农业科技培训与推广传播体系，尝试发放教育培训券等方式提高农村人力资本的投资与积累，建立城乡一体化的户籍与社会保障体系。第五，促进农村金融深化，探索农业资本积累率与利润率稳定增长机制。消除城乡金融深化的二元鸿沟，创新制度安排，拓展农村金融服务农业功能。中央银行可以根据涉农金融机构的信用状况，逐步放松利率管制，实现更大幅度的浮动范围。合理定位商业性与政策性金融机构的市场边界，完善农村金融生态环境，着力拓展农村政策性金融功能，创新金融产品，发展微型金融，促进城乡金融的统筹融合。在风险得到有效监控的条件下，适度降低农村金融服务的门槛与成本，放松对农户贷款的容忍度并进行合理展期。中央政府对涉农企业税收减免与优惠，可在农业领域赋予省一级地方政府更大的财政与税收自主权与经济激励，可以考虑试点授权农业大省发行农业发展专项国债。地方政府尝试建立专业性的商业和政策性的涉农信用评估、担保机构，探索农村集体土地使用权的抵押担保融资方式。充分发挥财政资金的杠杆作用，诱导农户投资、金融、保险、社会资本等进行农业投资。第六，注重中央政府对地方政府发展农业的制度激励与政策创新。优化政绩考核体系，创新地方政府支农的动力机制。中央政府应改变单纯以GDP论英雄的绩效考核机制，坚持科学发展观，注重城乡协调发展，将支农政绩指标纳入地方政府官员晋升的考核体系。革新公共治理方式，构建农民偏好表露与政府回应机制，进行农村社会管理体制和机制的创新。建立高度组织化和专业化的农民自治组织，降低维权交易成本，使农民有效介入公共选择的全过程，建立起真正意义上的“以足投票”“用手投票”机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 China’s decentralization reform is generally considered a key institutionalarrangement that causes economic growth miracle, but in the theoretical research andEmpirical Analysis on fiscal decentralization, the China agricultural economic growthperformance is not clear. In the institutional framework of fiscal decentralization, basedon local government behavior and empirical study, System analysis of agriculturaleconomic growth performance has significant theoretical and practical value. BecauseChina is a big developing agricultural country with political centralization, economicmoderate decentralization, the focus is on fiscal decentralization system that canencourage local governments and their officials to promote agricultural and ruraldevelopment, and the change of city biased policy design, narrowing the gap betweenurban and rural, promoting agricultural sustainable growth level.The fiscal decentralization, competition, government officials and politicalpromotion theory are introduced to the agricultural economic growth perspective, andtrying to establish theoretical framework of the relationship and effect of fiscaldecentralization, government competition (promotion) and rural public goods,agricultural economic growth. Based on the perspective of fiscal function of resourceallocation, income distribution and economic growth and stability, the study reveals themechanism of fiscal decentralization on the impact of rural public goods supply,agricultural economic growth. Finally the study explores the operation mechanism,implementation mode and regulatory policy of Chinese agriculture and rural economicgrowth of high quality and the integration of urban and rural development.The principal conclusions of this study are as follows:Institutional variable of China’s decentralization has the efficiency difference onthe supply of rural public goods. International decentralization variable is not effectivein promoting rural compulsory education expenditure of local government, but China’sdecentralization variables have significant and robust effect on supplying rural welfaresocial public goods.Transfers from the central government do not effectively promotethe supply of public goods in rural medical. The supply effect of local governmentfinancial self-sufficiency rate is not significant. But the “flypaper effect” is obviousfrom local government to central transfers. Government competition has a negativeincentive effect on rural basic education. Anti-corruption enhances the effectiveness of rural basic education, but reduces the welfare supply, which implies that there are somerent-seeking and corruption opportunities. Urbanization has a significant supply effecton rural basic education, health care and welfare of social public goods.The economicgrowth and new rural construction policy variables are also important factors, whichaffect the supply of rural public goods effect and present the difference.This article provides a system analysis framework of fiscal decentralization,agricultural economic growth and rural-urban income gap in China based on newinstitutional economics. Our study finds that all the variables have significant long-termequilibrium relationship and short-term dynamic adjustment mechanism by VAR&VECM model. Income gap has a reverse self correction mechanism, but the correctionability is poorer. The influence of agricultural economic growth on income gap residentsfluctuated degressive trend. Fiscal decentralization will have a positive impact andaggravate rural-urban income gap in a short-term, however, it will reduce the gap in along-term. This paper has also obtained VAR model forecast. These findings providebeneficial inspiration and public governance strategy.This paper estimates and decomposes the provincial agricultural TFP from1978to2011by DEA-Malmquist productivity index method, and observes carefully thetemporal evolution of difference, regional distribution and group growth efficiency. Ourstudy finds that agricultural TFP growth is mainly determined by the rate oftechnological progress and technical efficiency, but the role of technical efficiency islimited. Agricultural TFP and technological progress index show cyclical changes, andtechnical efficiency index with inverse cycle stages. Agricultural TFP efficiency changeis unbalanced. The difference is significant among provinces. Agricultural technicalefficiency index is generally not high. Agricultural frontier technology progress issatisfied in the Central and Western regions. Growth effect of the main efficiency indexis obvious in municipalities. The main efficiency index is obvious in divergence effect,but the trend of convergence effect and spillover effect is not significant. Besides thefactor input, business model innovation is more important. So agricultural economicgrowth and sustainable development should be the path of the mode of two wheels drivein the future.This paper analyses the influence factors on the efficiency of agriculturalproduction for each index change. The study find that Effects of local governmentbehavior factors is in non-equilibrium, and is significant positive effect on agriculturalTFP, but the impact is negative on the agricultural technical and pure technical efficiency, no significant influence on the agricultural frontier technology progress rateand scale efficiency. The effect is negative of total agricultural output value for theagricultural frontier technology progress, but the promotion is significantly positive ofagricultural technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency, indicating the currentagricultural economic growth is still followed the extensive growth pattern, and formspath dependence. Agricultural human capital has a positive promoting effect.Agricultural production performance is influenced by non-grain crops sown area andnatural disaster significantly. The relationship is significantly positive betweenurbanization and agricultural technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, scale ofagricultural efficiency. Industrialization for agricultural technology progress rate hassignificant positive effect, but is negative for agricultural scale efficiency. Policyimplication lies in perfecting the top system design and encourages local governmentsupport behavior. Finally the paper points out that Adhering to the integration of urbanand rural, mutual development of Industry and agriculture, and inputting factors ofmodern production and management pattern to the agricultural sector.This paper first constructs China’s decentralization system frame based on newinstitutional economics, and analyzes local government fiscal support for agriculture,rural financial development and production factors on agriculture economy growthperformance variation mechanism. The empirical results show: the growth ofagricultural economy has apparent cumulative hysteresis effect,policy drivensignificantly. The growth effect of fiscal decentralization is obvious and has the crossand regional difference characteristics. Urban and rural financial development is notbalanced and the rural financial function development is restrained, hindered the growthof agricultural economy. The interactive mechanism between rural finance and entityeconomy is not significant. The coordination between fiscal investment in agricultureand rural financial shows significantly growth effect, larger than the simple financialeffectiveness. The relationship has become more closer between macro economicsituation, agricultural energy consumption and agricultural economic growth.The policy recommendations of the study are as follows:First, promote the governance system and management modernization, improve theoperating mechanism of public financial support to agriculture. First of all, thegovernment fiscal behavior basis should be established on the constitutionalism andgovernment by law, gradually changed by the central “decision”,“notice”,“the firstdocument” and other forms, and should adjust by the law of formal specification. Secondly, it should be focus on the inherent stability of decentralization contract andfiscal system, and avoid the low efficiency caused by the frequent changes ofdecentralization and fiscal system. On the one hand, it should change the current fiscal“a level of government, a financial constraint” from “provinces control counties” and“counties control towns” experience, actively and steadily promote financial supportingagriculture into “central-province-county” spending levels, improve operating efficiencyof financial system and the fairness of financial resource allocation. On the other hand,the local government should reform the fiscal agriculture fund allocation andmanagement system, integrate various agriculture department, clear responsibility,innovate agricultural investment management system and operation mechanism, andstrengthen the local people’s Congress, the CPPCC and the Commission for disciplineinspection departments of audit and supervision of agricultural investment funds. Toovercome the deviation of the implementation policy of supporting agriculture infinance of local government, improve the input-output performance. Finally, it shouldenhance scale, optimize structure, form into priority mechanism of the financial supportfor agriculture, and ensure financial input to the needs of departments and fields.Secondly, match the governance and the financial rights, establish fiscal budgetconstraint mechanism. Based on guaranteeing the central macro-control, it shouldreduce the sharing of taxes and the share ratio, moderately reduce the central financialpower, and enhance financial power and resources of local governments, so that theyhave the ability to implement the central government’s “three rural issues” governancearrangements. At the same time, according to the symmetrical principle of financialrights and the governance, it should clear definition of the central government and localgovernment fiscal agricultural expenditure responsibility boundary, also perfect thelocal tax system, giving local governments more rights of issuing bonds. The localgovernment should streamline the administrative structure, reduce the cost of runningthe government, and transform the functions of government. Promoting the rule of lawof budget and standardization, strengthening the legal binding budget, rigidly requiringof the absolute and relative growth rate. Moreover, there should be clear operating bodyand the boundary of responsibility for budget preparation, approval, implementation andsupervision. Change the budget expenditure oriented city deviation, and increase theproject investment in agricultural production elements. Promote the proportion ofagricultural production investment, human capital, technology and rural public serviceinvestment. The hard constraint mechanism of land grant fees should be establishment. The local government’s “grabbing hand” of occupation farmland and crazily selling landshould be strictly regulated. Meanwhile, participatory budget system should beestablished, and the fiscal agriculture fund payments are included in the budget reviewand social supervision.Thirdly, optimize the transfer payment and implement the integration mode ofurban and rural development. The performance of unconditional transfer payment, likeprevious poverty alleviation, should be evaluated by the central government. Overcomelow financial balance, and innovate performance evaluation index system of the centraltransfer. Meanwhile, the transfer of matching conditions or the proportion of paymentshould be implemented. Simplify the transfer payment links and improve the transferefficiency of capital utilization. The central government should establish a transferpayment mechanism of targeting and redistribution, improve the precision and intensityof transfer payment for the backward provinces of rural public goods. Especially for thespillover of rural public goods, the special payment must be established. Moreover,improve the transfer payment system at and below the provincial level, establish unifiedallocation of channels and transparent information release platform. To eliminate themain obstacle to the integration of urban and rural development, first of all to promotethe equalization of urban and rural public products and service supply, improve theefficiency and quality. The urban and rural public goods allocation should be dominatedby the local government. Adhere to the urban and rural fair unified fiscal policy,construction the feedback mechanism of city to rural institution and policy, materialcapital, human capital etc. The last is the innovation of rural land property rights system,Safeguarding farmer’s land value-added income, and exploring channels of propertyincome.Fourthly, factors of production and operation mode of modernization should beinput agriculture department.“Two wheel drive” mode should be the path change of thefuture China agricultural economic growth and sustainable development. Through fiscal,financial and insurance policies, it should reduce threshold of agricultural newtechnologies, promote the progress of agricultural technology diffusion and propagation,and construct technology transfer and interaction mechanism of industrialization,information and agricultural production efficiency. Fully understand the cycle ofagricultural production, strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction, establishecological, low carbon modern agriculture. On the premise of ensuring food security,accelerate the adjustment of the internal structure and the upgrading of the agricultural industry, improve agricultural insurance mechanism, enhance the ability of agricultureresisting market risk. Improve the incentive and restraint mechanism, promoteappropriate scale operation, vigorously develop the family farm, and cultivate newagricultural management body. At the same time, establishing the integration of urbanand rural employment market, building high quality system of agricultural science andtechnology training and communication, improving the investment and accumulation ofrural human capital by education training ticket issuance and other methods, andestablishing the integration of urban and rural household registration and social securitysystem.Fifthly, promote rural financial deepening and explore stable growth mechanism ofagricultural capital accumulation, profit rate. To eliminate the gap between urban andrural areas of financial deepening, innovate system arrangement of rural financialservices, and expand the service function. According to credit status of agriculturerelated financial institutions, the central bank can gradually relax the interest ratecontrol and realize the greater floating range. Moreover, reasonably position ofcommercial and policy financial institutions market boundary, improve the ruralfinancial ecological environment, expand the function of the rural policy finance,innovate financial products, develop micro finance, and promote urban and ruralfinancial co-ordination.In the effective risk monitoring conditions, it is appropriate toreduce the threshold and the cost of financial services in rural areas, relax the farmersloan tolerance and allow a reasonable extension. The central government can tax cutsand incentives for agricultural enterprises, give the provincial level local governmentsmore autonomy and economic incentive in the field of agriculture, and try to authorizeagricultural big province to issue special bonds of agricultural development. In addition,the local government can attempt to establish professional business and policy creditevaluation, guarantee institutions, and explore the way of mortgage, guarantee andfinancing of rural collective land. Let the leverage of financial capital be exertedadequately and induct household investment, financial, insurance, social capital toinvest in agriculture.Finally, the central government should offer local government incentive systemand policy innovation for agricultural development. Optimize the system of politicalachievements and innovate dynamic mechanism of local government to supportagriculture. The central government should change the simple appraisal system in termsof GDP performance, adhere to the Scientific Outlook on Development, pay attention to the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and put the performanceindicators of supporting Agriculture into the local government officials assessmentsystem. In addition, reform public governance mode, construct farmer preference andgovernment response mechanism, and innovate the system and mechanism of ruralsocial management. To reduce the transaction cost of rights, the highly organized andprofessional farmers autonomy organization should be established, so that it can allowfarmers access to take part in the whole process of public choice and establish the realsense of “vote with foot”,“vote” mechanism.更多还原