【作者】 郑玉昕；

【导师】 王洪礼；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 开展污水排放量、污水水质预测的研究对实现污水资源化具有非常重要的意义。本文围绕天津市的城市污水处理与资源化展开了深入研究。综合采用“时间序列的差分自回归移动平均模型”和探索性数据分析的“投影寻踪回归”技术对“十二五”末天津市污水排放量进行了预测研究，结果表明：“十二五”期间，工业废水排放量整体趋向于平稳，比“十一五”期间还有小幅降低。而生活污水排放量则有小幅升高。综合考虑工业废水和生活污水，“十二五”期间，天津市城市污水排放量整体将保持平稳小幅增加态势，到2015年，天津城市污水排放量将达到4.1亿吨左右。为了实现污水资源化，本文还研究了污水水质的变化。以天津市张贵庄污水处理系统为代表，通过小王庄泵站近三年的水质监测数据，分析了天津市污水水质的变化规律及概率分布类型。结果表明：COD、BOD、NH3和TP均呈现出下降趋势，说明污水处理厂的进水水质总体将有所好转。通过“水质保证率图”得到了COD、BOD和NH3的90%保证率实测进水水质；对具有厚尾分布特征的总磷指标，则进行了极值概率分析，得到了拟合原始数据较好的TP浓度的Pareto型超阈值分布函数，并利用该函数计算出概率为90%时TP的保证浓度。在全球的社会和经济发展中，水资源的不足已成为目前的主要制约因素之一，必须逐步实现污水资源化。它可通过政府制定的规范经济管理运转模式和建设污水再生利用的基础设施两方面的途径来实现。但目前还存在很多不足，为推动污水资源化的利用，除应进一步明确政府的角色定位、制定城市水资源的综合利用规划、完善相关法律法规、加强科技创新以及积极推进污水资源化的市场化进程外；还要进一步提高污水处理厂的生产效率，从而降低污水资源化的成本。为此，本文还选择了天津市正在运行中的4家污水处理厂，采用SFA随机前沿分析方法，对4家企业的2011年效益和成本进行了效率评价和排名，并找出影响效率的主要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Predictions of polluted water emissions and traits of water quality play importantrole in fulfilling the utilization of sewage water. This paper focuses on the Tianjin’surban sewage water treatment and resource utilization.Waste water emissions in Tianjin city by the end of2015was predicted by usinga time series autoregressive differential moving average model and projection pursuitregression exploratory data analysis. Results showed that the industrial wastewateremissions tend to be stable overall but with slightly reduced. On the contrary, thedomestic sewage will increased slightly. Considering the industrial wastewater anddomestic sewage, Tianjin urban wastewater emissions will slightly increase with theoverall trend will remain stable in2015. Tianjin urban sewage emissions will reach4.1million tons in2015.In order to achieve the reuse of water resource, this paper also studied the qualityof polluted water. With the3years water quality monitoring data in Xiaowangzhuangpumping station which belongs to the Tianjin sewage treatment system, the variationpattern of polluted water quality and their distribution types were analyzed. Resultsshow that COD, BOD, NH3and TP were all shown a downward trend, indicated thatthe sewage treatment plant influent water quality improved in general during3years.Using the water quality assurance rate map, the90%guaranteed rate value of COD,BOD and NH3were got. There was a fat tail distribution of the phosphorus index. Sowe use the probability of extreme value analysis to analyze the raw data, and wefound that the Pareto-type threshold distribution function was fitted to the TP. Last the90%guaranteed rate value of TP was calculated based on its peak over distribution.Shortage of water resources has become a main constraint to development ofglobal social and economic, utilization of polluted water is a must step. It can beformulated by both the government regulate the operation mode of economicmanagement and construction of water recycling infrastructure. But there are stillmany shortcomings. In order to promote water resource reuse, in addition to furtherclarify the government’s role in developing the comprehensive utilization of urbanwater resources planning, improving relevant laws and regulations, strengthening scientific and technological innovation, and actively promoting market-based waterresource process, but also the efficiency of sewage treatment plants need furtherimproved which can reduce the cost of water resource. For this purpose, with thestochastic frontier analysis method and data of cost and benefit in2011of fourrunning sewage treatment plants in Tianjin, we assessed the technical efficiency andalso identified the main impact factors of the efficiency.更多还原