【作者】 孟晓雷；

【导师】 马军海；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 潍坊作为山东半岛都市群的核心城市，在山东省的经济增长中扮演了重要的角色。潍坊市正处在转变经济发展方式，调整优化经济结构，全面建设小康社会的关键时期。2011年山东半岛蓝色经济区建设正式上升为国家战略为潍坊市提供了重要的发展机遇。本文综合使用DEA、SFA和和复杂网络分析方法，从宏观经济、科技园区以及工业企业三个层面对潍坊市经济发展效率进行了实证分析与评价，为地方政府及相关决策部门评估区域经济发展现状、调整相关政策、协调各方关系提供了重要的参考资料和政策分析工具。本文主要分为以下几个部分：第一章为绪论。本章主要提出本论文选题的背景、理论意义和实践意义，接下来对国内外相关本领域内的相关研究文献进行综述和评价，提出本论文研究的思路、主要内容和使用的研究方法，本章最后概括出本文的主要创新点。第二章为理论概述。本部分主要对本文的理论基础进行介绍，主要包括灰色系统理论、全要素效率评价理论、新经济地理理论、区域经济“中心-外围”理论。第三章为基于DEA的潍坊市宏观经济运行效率评价与预测。本部分首先对潍坊市经济发展的基本面进行分析，从GDP及其增速、总体投资水平、全社会总体消费状况、进出口总额以及产业结构五个方面考察了潍坊市的经济发展现状，接下来对潍坊市的经济发展水平进行纵向和横向比较，并对潍坊市经济发展的宏观效率、全要素生产率进行了评价，最后通过灰色马尔科夫预测方法对潍坊市的经济发展指标进行了预测。通过分析得出，潍坊市的GDP、投资总额和消费支出总额都呈现快速增长趋势，进出口总额低于省内其他沿海城市，产业结构存在不合理问题，自主创新能力不强，经济发展方式亟需转变。通过DEA评价的潍坊市全要素生产率良好，但整体发展不均衡，主要原因为行业发展不均衡、资本运转不合理以及外部市场环境的影响。潍坊市的产业集群具有明显的集聚效应，明显提高了地区生产率水平，促进了区域产业创新，促进了技术进步指数和技术效率的提高。第四章为基于复杂网络的潍坊科技园区发展研究。本章首先对国内外科技园区的发展现状进行了总结，并着重分析了科技园区的产业路径和经营风险，接下来对潍坊市科技园区的规模经济及其影响因素进行了实证研究，最后分别通过区间层次分析法以及超效率DEA模型对潍坊市科技园区的竞争力进行了评价。通过分析得出以下结论：产业园区的发展模式主要包括自有企业发展模式、外部企业发展模式和产业链模式。从恶意攻击和随机攻击的鲁棒性分析和比较中可以发现，具有多个核心的产业园区抵御风险的能力明显优于前两种园区类型，在招商模式上，产业链招商的优势非常明显。潍坊并不具备全面发展服务外包的条件，潍坊在产业发展中的优势在于人口基数和稳健的GDP增长水平。潍坊与示范城市的差距主要来自以航空交通线路为代表的交通条件和以高等院校数量为代表的高等人力资源水平。通过超效率DEA模型对潍坊科技园区竞争力进行评价看出，潍坊的得分较低，具备发展新兴科技产业的必要条件，在全国基本处于中上游的水平，与全国领先城市的差距较大。第五章为潍坊市企业生产效率评价。主要是应用随机前沿模型对潍坊市工业企业的技术效率进行全面的评价分析。根据分析结果，从不同行业、企业规模、产权结构以及市场势力四个方面对潍坊市工业企业的技术效率进行了统计分析。根据分析结果以及分类统计可以看出，在不同行业分类中，医药制造业和装备制造业的技术效率较高；在不同产权结构的企业中，国有企业的技术效率较高而民营企业技术效率最低；不同规模的企业中，企业的技术效率与企业规模之间表现出显著的正相关性；根据不同的市场竞争程度来看，市场势力过大或者市场竞争对手过多都会导致技术效率的下降。对于潍坊市工业企业来讲，需要着重关注技术效率较低的企业群体，加大对这部分企业的政策支持力度。第六章为研究结论、政策建议与展望。本部分主要总结了本论文前几章研究的主要观点和结论，在这些结论的基础之上，从宏观、产业和企业三个层面提出了提升潍坊市经济发展效率的相关政策建议，本章最后总结了本研究存在的局限性以及对未来研究展望。更多还原

【Abstract】 Weifang as the core city of the Shandong Peninsula urban group, play an important role in economic growth in Shandong Province. Weifang City is in the transformation of economic development mode, adjust and optimize the economic structure, the critical period of building a moderately prosperous society. In2011Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone formal rose provide important opportunities for the development of a national strategy for the Weifang City. DEA, SFA and complex network analysis method, this paper, using three levels from the macro-economy, science and technology parks and industrial enterprises empirical analysis and evaluation of the efficiency of Weifang City Economic Development to assess the status of regional economic development, local government and relevant decision-making departments adjust relevant policies to coordinate the relationship between the parties to provide important reference information and policy analysis tool. The paper is divided into the following sections:The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter presented the background of this thesis topic, theoretical and practical significance, the next review and evaluation of the relevant research literature related art, the ideas presented in this thesis, the main content and the use of research methods, this chapter Finally, summarize the main innovations of this article.Chapter Ⅱ is Overview theory. This section mainly introduces the theoretical basis of this article, mainly including the theory of gray system theory, the total factor efficiency evaluation theory, the new theory of economic geography, regional economic center-periphery ".Chapter three for the Weifang City macroeconomic performance based on DEA efficiency evaluation and prediction. This section first analysis of the fundamentals of economic development in Weifang City, Weifang City Economic Development Status visits from five areas of the GDP and its growth rate, the overall level of investment, the overall consumption of the whole society status, total imports and exports, and industrial structure, then down the vertical and horizontal comparison on the level of economic development in Weifang City, evaluation and Weifang City, the macro-economic development efficiency, total factor productivity, Weifang City’s economic development indicators predicted by gray Markov forecast method. Analyzed Weifang City of GDP, total investment and consumption expenditures showed a rapid growth trend, the total import and export volume is lower than the province of other coastal cities, there is irrational industrial structure, the capability of independent innovation is not strong, the mode of economic development is urgently to be changed. Evaluation by DEA Weifang City, total factor productivity, but the overall development is uneven, mainly due to the uneven development of the industry, the capital operation unreasonable as well as the external market environment. Weifang City, the industrial clusters with a significant clustering effect, significantly improved regional productivity levels, promote regional industrial innovation, and promote technical progress index and technical efficiency.The fourth chapter is based on a complex network Weifang Science and Technology Park Development. This chapter begins with a summary of the current development of domestic and international science and technology park, and analyzes the path of a science and technology park industry and operational risks empirical research, followed by the economies of scale of the Science and Technology Park of Weifang City and its influencing factors, and finally by interval Analytic Hierarchy Process as well as super-efficiency DEA model evaluation of the competitiveness of the Science and Technology Park of Weifang City. By analyzing the following conclusions:the model of development of the industrial park including own enterprise development mode, external enterprise development model and the industry chain model. Can be found from the robustness of the analysis and comparison of the malicious attacks and random attacks, the industrial park has more than one core ability to withstand risks significantly better than the first two types of Park industrial chain investment advantage is obvious in the investment model. Does not have the all-round development of the service outsourcing in Weifang, Weifang advantage of the population base and a prudent level of GDP growth in the industrial development. The gap between the city of Weifang and demonstration from the air traffic lines represented by the traffic conditions and the number to colleges and universities on behalf of the higher level of human resources. Super-efficiency DEA model to evaluate the competitiveness of the Science and Technology Park of Weifang seen Weifang lower scores have a necessary condition for the development of emerging industries, basically at the level of the middle and upper reaches of the country, a big gap between the nation’s leading cities.Chapter five is evaluation of production efficiency in Weifang City. Application of stochastic frontier model of comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the technical efficiency of industrial enterprises in Weifang City. According to the analysis of the results from four different industries, firm size, ownership structure, as well as market forces conducted a statistical analysis of the technical efficiency of the industrial enterprises in Weifang City. As can be seen the results of the analysis and classification statistics, the classification of the different industries, pharmaceutical manufacturing, technology and equipment manufacturing efficiency; different corporate structure of property rights, higher technical efficiency of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises lowest technical efficiency; businesses of all sizes, the technical efficiency of enterprises and enterprise scale showed a significant positive correlation; according to the degree of competition in the market point of view, the market forces are too large or competitors in the market too much will lead to a decline in technical efficiency. For industrial enterprises in terms of Weifang City, you need to focus on the less efficient technology enterprise groups, and policy support to increase this part of the enterprise.Chapter VI for the research findings, policy recommendations and Prospects. This section summarized the main chapters of this thesis the main points and conclusions of the study, the basis of these conclusions, from the macro, industry and enterprise levels, relevant policy recommendations to enhance the efficiency of economic development in Weifang City, this chapter concludes limitations of this study as well as the outlook for future research.更多还原