【作者】 高飞；

【导师】 张再生；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 大学生职业生涯初期对于大学生整个职业生涯具有极其重要的意义，而此阶段大学生就业的显著特征即为就业不稳定。一方面在国外发达国家，学者早已将大学生就业问题研究重点从就业率转移到就业稳定性上，另一方面我国国内大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性问题已经十分严重，而且有愈演愈烈的趋势，迫切需要解决。因此，在国家社科基金项目“高校毕业生就业稳定性及就业促进机制”的资助下，完成了这篇题为“大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性影响因素及预警研究”博士论文。本文首先对就业稳定性与职业生涯初期概念做了准确界定；其次将预警理念引入到大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性管理中，从初入职场大学生员工及即将毕业大学生两个角度剖析处于此“中间状态”的大学生员工就业不稳定性特点，一方面通过对天津市内26家企业内1010名处于职业生涯初期的大学生员工发放问卷，建立大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性诱因传导模型并对不稳定性诱因传导模型构成变量进行界定，逐一分析各个变量对于就业不稳定性的传导及作用机理，以此了解造成大学生员工职业生涯初期就业不稳定性的主要心理路径；另一方面对天津市内13所高校1292名即将毕业大学生发放问卷，发现高校毕业生预期收入过高是导致职业生涯初期大学生员工就业不稳定的核心因素，从高校毕业生角度揭示就业不稳定原因；再次邀请专家与企业资深人力主管座谈，在现有离职预警理论基础上确立大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性预警指标模型并确定测量标准，将FCE与AHP两种方法结合对多指标体系进行综合评价，明确预警重点，并选择警情输出方式；最终从微观层面（组织、高校与个人角度）与宏观层面（政府、社会角度）分别提出大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性预警策略，其中在微观层面加入事后预控策略并首次引入知识持续管理，从新角度提出相应的预控策略，以便消除每一个环节可能出现的大学生就业不稳定性因素。文章以独特的视角，综合经济、管理、心理、社会、法律等知识跨学科研究，并结合定性与定量、规范与实证、历史与实地调研等实证方法，得出以下结论与创新成果：1.借助Price&Muller（雇员离职模型），建立了大学生职业生涯初期流失诱因传导模型。2.研究并分析出大学生员工流失过程中心理变量所起的单独作用和交互作用，包括自变量、控制变量、中介变量、离职约束等。3.分析并描绘处于职业生涯初期大学生员工产生不稳定性的主要心理路径。4.分析在校大学生职业生涯初期就业不稳定性核心影响因素预期收入偏高。5.建立大学生就业不稳定性预警指标模型，并对其进行综合评价。6.预警中加入事后预控策略并首次引入知识持续管理，全方面预控处于职业生涯初期大学生就业中可能出现的不稳定性因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 For the college students, the early-career stage which can be characterized by theemployment instability has a dominant position in their whole career. In developedcountries, as to the issue of college students’ employment, the focus of research hasalready shifted from the rate of employment to the instability of it, while in China,although the employment instability for college students is looming large, theattention to the issue is far from enough. Therefore, financed by the project of TheEmployment Stability of College Students and the Mechanism for EmploymentPromotion, a National Social Science Fund project, the doctoral thesis titled A Studyon the Determinants and Warning System of the Employment Instability in CollegeStudents’ Early-career Stage is finished.Firstly, the thesis presents a clear definition of the employment stability and theearly-career stage. Secondly, the concept of warning is introduced into themanagement of the employment instability in college students’ early-career stage.Efforts have been done to analyze the employment instability of college studentswho are experiencing the transition from a future graduate to a fresh graduate: onone hand, by investigating the questionnaires of1010fresh graduates in theirearly-career stage from26enterprises in Tianjin, the model of the employmentinstability in college students’ early-career stage is constructed to illustrate how eachvariable influences the employment instability and figure out what on earth shapesthe psychological instability of college students; on the other hand, by enquiring intothe questionnaires of1292future graduates from13universities in Tianjin, it isfound that the high expectation for salary is a key factor leading to the employmentinstability. Thirdly, experts and senior HR officers have been invited to share theirthoughts and on the basis of the current demission warning theory, the instabilitywarning model is constructed and the specific measures are provided. The methodsof FCE and AHP are combined together to evaluate the multi-variable system, makeclear the focus of warning and decide how to convey the warning information.Finally, strategies for the early warning of the employment instability in collegestudents’ early-career stage are put forward both from micro (organizations,universities and individuals) and macro (the government and society) aspects. As to the micro aspects, the post-control strategy is employed and the knowledgecontinuity management is firstly introduced, which offers a new perspective toreduce the instable factors to the minimum.The study has offered a unique perspective to discuss the subject, integratingeconomy, management, psychology, sociology, law and other disciplines andadopting the methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis, field research, etc.Below are the conclusions and innovative achievements:1. On the basis of Employee Turnover Intention Model, the model of collegestudents’ demission in their early-career stage is constructed to illustrate how eachvariable influences the employment instability.2. The research has analyzed how the psychological variable influences thedemission of college students.3. The study has figured out the psychological instability of college students.4. The key factor leading to the employment instability is the high expectationfor salary.5. A warning model of college students’ employment instability is constructedand evaluated systematically.6. The post-control strategy is employed and the knowledge continuitymanagement is firstly introduced in the early warning system, which will reduce theinstable factors in the college students’ early-career stage to the minimum.更多还原