【作者】 刘立旺；

【导师】 刘金兰；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 石油是一种不可再生的战略资源，在各国经济和国家安全中占据十分重要的地位。全面参与国际油气合作与竞争，是保障我国石油安全的需要，也是石油企业自身可持续发展的内在要求。本文针对国际油气合作高投入、高风险和合同限定性等特点，对海外石油项目如何实现控制投入和合同期价值最大化进行了深入研究，主要工作与研究内容如下：1.针对海外石油项目重产量和规模发展，争投资、成本刚性增长的特点，引入了价值管理思想，系统研究了价值评估的市价法、成本法、折现现金流法和经济增加值法，并指出经济增加值法与折现现金流法是等效的。2.在对价值管理和预算管理理论深入研究基础上，提出了全面预算内涵鱼骨图，设计了全面预算的架构系统；构建了海外石油项目基于全面预算的价值管理框架模式和体系，探讨通过生命周期预算、滚动预算和年度预算编制衔接战略规划，通过预算执行和控制保证实施运营，通过预算考核实现激励和约束，通过预算管理保障风险管控，进而实现项目价值最大化目标。3.比较分析了国际石油合作中各类合同模式的内容、特点和收益分配，研究提出了基于开发方案的生命周期预算编制和预算评估方法，指出通过生命周期预算，可以对历史执行期进行跟踪分析，对剩余合同期和整个合同期进行滚动预算评价，为生产经营和投资提供决策支持。4.总结剖析海外石油项目预算管理体制与机构、编报程序和工作计划与预算内容框架等特点基础上，研究设计了集AFE、Cash Call、有限授权、预算调整、预算分析、采办控制、项目化管理、ERP系统控制、审计为一体的海外项目年度预算执行控制体系，确保预算的系统全面控制和专项控制。提出了KPI考核和经营指标对标评价相结合的预算考评体系，以有效避免考核中“预算松弛”的弊病。5.系统分析海外石油项目面临的9大类风险以及10项财务风险的基础上，构建财务风险评价指标体系，应用多层级模糊综合评价法对财务风险做了评价，得出前3大财务风险是税收、价格和汇率风险、目前的财务风险处于中等略偏高的水平的结论，并给出了前3大财务风险的剩余风险值，提出应对的策略和措施。6.对哈萨克斯坦某石油项目进行案例研究，以合同条款、新税法以及开发方案为依据，估算剩余合同期现金流，根据折现现金流模型，对初始方案和调整方案进行了预算评价和分析，为方案调整投资决策和价值创造优化提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The petroleum is a non-renewable strategic resource, which plays a veryimportant role in economy and national security of many countries. It is therequirement to take part in international cooperation and competition of petroleum inan all-round manner to safeguard the petroleum security of our country, which is alsothe need of petroleum corporations for their own sustainable development. This paperdevelops a deep research on how to control the Capex&Opex and realize maximumvalue in the contract period in overseas petroleum projects, considering the highinvestment, high risks, limitation of the contract of international petroleumcooperation. The main research works in the paper are listed as follows:1. According to the character of excessively targeting on production and scale,rigid grow in investment and cost of overseas petroleum projects, the theory ofvalue-based management is introduced. Value evaluation methods, including themarket value method, the cost method, DCF method and EVA method, aresystematically studied. The equivalence between EVA model and DCF model hasbeen pointed out as well.2. Based on the deep research on theories of value-based management andbudget management, a fishbone chart of overall budget is proposed and the overallbudget structural system is designed. Establishing the pattern and system ofvalue-based management based on overall budget for overseas petroleum projects.Discussing the strategic plans connected with life cycle budgeting, the trundlebudgeting and annual budgeting, and the implementation through budget executionand control, and the incentives and restrains system through budget assessment, andthe risk controlling through budget management, in order to maximize the projectvalue.3. The content, features, income distribution of petroleum contract patterns areanalyzed and compared. The life-cycle budgeting and budget assessment method areput forward, based on the ODP. And pointing out that the history of implementationcan be traced and analyzed through the life-cycle budgeting, which can carry outcontinuous budget assessment to the whole and remaining period of the contract andprovide decisive support for operation and investment. 4. An annual budgeting execution and control system for overseas projects isdesigned, which includes AFE, Cash Call, LOA, budget adjustment, budget analysis,purchase control, project management, ERP system control and audit, based onsummarizing and analyzing the budget system and mechanism, the preparingprocedure, working plan and budget content frames of overseas petroleum projects, toguarantee the comprehensive control and specified control. A budget assessment andappraisal system is built, which is in combination of KPI assessment and operationindex benchmarking appraisal, to avoid ‘slack budget’.5. An evaluation index system for financial risks is established by systematicallyanalyzing nine risks and ten financial risks faced by overseas petroleum projects.Utilizing the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive assessment model to evaluate thefinancial risks and reach conclusions that the three big financial risks are tax, the priceand the exchange rate risk as well as the moderate and slightly high financial risk atpresent. With the residual risk value of the three big financial risks being pointed out,policies and measures are offered accordingly.6. A case research on a certain petroleum project in Kazakhstan has beenconducted. According to the contract terms, the new tax law and the ODP, estimatingthe cash flow in remaining contract period and carrying out the budget assessment andanalysis into the initial ODP and the adjustment ODP based on DCF, which providereferences for investment decision-making about adjustment ODP and creating andoptimizing the value.更多还原