【作者】 刘李鹏；

【导师】 宗刚；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2014， 博士

【摘要】 台海两岸经济发展不是孤立的，两岸经济合则两利，分则两伤。两岸之间的物质流动、信息流动不断加速，双方在地缘优势、自然资源、人力资源等方面也存在巨大互补性，这促使两岸经济的依存关系不断加强。维持保护好两岸经济系统正常运行，促进其健康发展，将对实现两岸经济发展目标产生很大帮助，这就要求管理者深入了解经济系统自组织发展的规律与条件，在此基础上根据环境变化对系统进行优化，使之能够自行应对来自内外部的冲击。因此，研究经济系统自组织发展的一般规律，寻找其显著特征及优化方式，结合实际条件对两岸经济系统进行分析，在当前我国加快转变经济发展方式的时期，具有突出的理论与实践意义。目前关于台海经济系统的文献有很多，主要集中于两岸经济互补性和经济整合方面的研究，还有一些学者从两岸经济中某一特定方面的变化来分析两岸经济发展机制。总体来看，这些研究都是根据经济数据和经济现状来探察经济系统发展情况，以数据为入手点分析经济系统内部结构。而本文以探明台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的各阶段特点为出发点，再通过两岸双方对外贸易数据、产品数量、企业会计指标等实际数据，透视区域经济系统的启动发展全过程，是一种正向的思维分析过程。影响经济系统自组织发展的各个因素环环相扣，台海两岸经济系统的基本环境、有序化程度、协同竞争因素、序参量带领作用及经济一体化进程都将对其自身产生深远影响。只有保护好台海两岸经济系统中已有的自组织发展条件并逐步从宏观、产业、微观等层面多角度优化两岸经济系统，才能使之为两岸社会经济发展作出更大贡献。本文的主要工作是运用自组织理论，结合经济系统理论、博弈论对两岸经济系统的启动条件、发展动力、发展趋势进行具体分析，并根据台海两岸经济系统的特点，针对两岸经济一体化发展提出政策建议，这为研究双边经贸关系、探索区域经济系统自组织演化过程提供了思路和框架。本文的主要研究成果有：（1）提出了台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的三种基本表象，建立了系统内部产业协同竞争策略选择博弈模型，指出两岸经贸合作将趋向于协同合作，并进一步提出台海两岸经济系统一体化发展将实现子系统内部的反应循环、子系统间的催化反应循环和大陆与台湾子空间系统之间的超循环。（2）在分析得出台海两岸经济系统具备开启自组织发展基本条件的基础上，建立了基于熵流分析的台海两岸经济系统耗散结构模型，选取了大陆与台湾之间的6个区域流和6个经济势，得出台海两岸经济系统的有序化程度正在不断增加，并将延续这种增长态势的结论。（3）提出序参量因素是区域经济系统自组织发展动力的主导因素，分析了台海两岸经济系统中序参量的产生过程，并以两岸LED产业为例，建立了台海两岸产业协同发展模型，并根据伺服原理，采用绝热消去法，确定系统的序参量。（4）利用模糊层次分析法，计算得出了近十年来两岸经贸协同度提高近一倍的结论，提出促进台海两岸经济系统自组织发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The economic development of Taiwan and the mainland’s mainland locating between theTaiwan Strait is not isolated. The cross-strait could get benefits in economy when theycooperate and get drawbacks when they separate: The material flow, information flowbetween the cross-strait are ceaselessly accelerating. The great complement inadvantage of predestined, infrastructure, natural resource etc rise the dependence ofcross-strait economic. It demands managers to understand the rules and conditionsof self-organizing system development deeply and optimize the system according tothe change of environment, so that the system could deal with the impact frominternal and external. So making researches on the law of development and evolutionmechanism of cross strait economic system, finding its remarkable characteristics andoptimization exercise an important theoretical and practical influence on our country’simportant period of accelerating transformation of the mode in economicdevelopment.Recently, there are a lot of research on cross strait economic system, which aremainly on the cross-strait economic complementarity and economic integration, oranalyzing the mechanism of cross-strait economic development from the change in acertain aspect in the cross-strait economy. These studies, researching on thedevelopment situation in economy system, are based on the current situation andeconomic data. Although it is an effective research paradigm, this way is the reversein logic and unconvincing. This paper, based on the self-organization as the mainresearch method and a large number of actual data from both sides of foreign tradedata, product quantity and enterprise accounting data, build up the whole process fromstart to development of regional economic system and discusses the characteristics ofvarious stages of self-organization development in economic system across theTaiwan Strait. Interlocking factors influence economic development ofself-organization system. The basic environment, orderly degree, cooperativecompetition factors, the order parameter of the lead and the economic integrationprocess of cross strait economic system will have a profound impact on itself. For thisreason, we must protect the existing development conditions of self-organization ineconomic system from both sides of the Taiwan Straits and gradually optimizecross-strait economic system from macro, industry, microcosmic aspects in order tomake greater contributions to the social economic development for both sides.About the subject, the basic work of the dissertation includes: usingself-organization theory, combined with game theory, economic theory, specificanalyze start condition, development trend and development power of cross straiteconomic system. According to the features of economic system across the Taiwan Strait, puts forward the policy recommendations about the future development of thesystem. This provides the ideas and framework for research on bilateral economic andtrade relations and exploring the self-organization evolution process of regionaleconomic system.The thesis has given birth to creative thoughts as follow:A. The thesis proposed the three basic appearances of development ofself-organization in cross-strait economic system. It also builds up the cooperativecompetition strategy of choice game model in internal system industry and points outthat the cross-strait economic and trade cooperation will tend to cooperate. To go astep further, it proposed that integration development of cross-strait economic systemshould achieve reaction cycle in inside of the system, the catalytic reaction cyclebetween subsystems, hyper cycle between cross-strait.B. According to the analysis of the fact that economic system based on two sidesof the Taiwan Strait have the basic conditions of starting self-organization, the paperset up cross-strait economic system of model of dissipative structure based on theentropy flow analysis and select six regions as well as six economic potential betweenthe mainland and Taiwan. The result is that the order degree of economic systemacross the Taiwan Strait is increasing, and will continue the trend.C. The thesis proposes an idea that the order parameter factors are basic power ofself-organization development in regional economic system. The paper not onlyanalyzes the producing process of cross strait economic order parameters in thesystem, but also taking LED industry among the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as anexample, establishes the collaborative development model of system evolution.Meanwhile, according to the principle of servo, it determined the order parameter insystem using the adiabatic elimination methodD. By using AHP, it shows that the cross-strait economic and trade cooperativerelations degree nearly doubled in recent ten years. It proposed some suggestions ofpromoting development of self-organization in cross-strait economic system.更多还原