【作者】 李彬；

【导师】 陈荫三；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 车辆工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 目前，我国大多数城市在向外发展的过程中，都走的是摊大饼的方式，大型居住区分布在城市外围，而在城市中心聚集成为商业、文化、政治、金融复合型中心。随着我国国民经济的发展，城市机动化水平显著增加，居民出行趋势大体一致，均是地面公共交通出行比重已经趋稳，地铁出行比重大幅上升。个人私家车出行比重在前几年大幅攀升后，始终维持在高位运行。一方面城市中心区域和外围居住地通勤需求越来越大，另一方面是城市交通中私家车出行比重大幅攀升。两种叠加效应下城市交通已经不堪重负，同时恶劣的交通环境又使机动车尾气排放性能大幅降低，城市环境也越来越差。各大城市交通发展现状已经证明，新增公交和地铁规模以及降低票价的措施被不能有效吸引私家车主改乘公共交通，反而会诱发更多的交通出行需求，造成公共交通的愈加拥堵。定位于刚性交通需求管理的限行、限购、增加停车收费标准等强制性措施实施起来最为简单，但是效果却差强人意。工作日的通勤时段由于私家车出行比重高，是最为拥堵的时段，吸引私家车主改乘公共交通工具是控制小汽车出行比重的关键。现在的公共交通之所以不能吸引私家车主，最主要的原因是车内拥挤。定位介于常规意义的城市客车和私家车之间的定制公交，能更好地满足城市多层次、多元化的乘客出行需求，特别是对私家车主有很强的吸引力。因此可以有效提高道路利用效率，帮助缓解城市拥堵。从北京的实证研究看出，定制公交在减轻高峰时期拥堵路段交通量、减少工作地点停车位压力、节能环保和降低交通事故风险方面均有比较显著的效果。对广州和深圳的走访情况也可以看出，其他一线城市对定制公交也有着巨大的市场需求。西安的实证研究也说明，我国二线城市对定制公交服务需求同样迫切。在建立的影响定制公交票价制定的二项logsitc模型中还可以看出，是否有座位、沿路停靠次数和通勤距离是影响二线城市定制公交票价的重要因素。结合西安公交总公司和高新区管委会社会管理局的意见，本研究还初步规划了东郊发往高新区的定制公交线路，以便后期运营。研究还针对定制公交客车实际运行工况，提出了车型开发的基本原则，为开辟城市定制公交客车细分市场提供了数据和技术支撑。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present, most cities are taking the big pie of development that large living arealocated in the suburb of the city, and gathered in the city center to become commercial,cultural, political, and financial center complex. With the development of nationaleconomy, urban motorization levels increased significantly, residents travel modeconsistent with the same trend, which the proportion of ground public transport hasstabilized, subway travel increased substantially. Individual private car travel rosesharply after a few years and the proportion is always maintained at a high level. Onthe one hand, the city center and the peripheral region of residence commutingdemand growing more and more; on the other hand, the proportion of private cars inurban traffic surge. Urban transport has been overwhelmed with the two factors. Atthe same time, the urban environment is getting worse because the traffic environmentbecame severe.Enlarge the size of bus and subway and reduce its fares can’t attract private carowners to switch to public transportation. On the contrary, it will induce more traffictravel demands, resulting in worse congestion. Traffic restriction, limiting purchase,increasing parking fees and other coercive measures implement simple, but the effectis far from satisfactory. Commuting time in workday is very congestion. How toattract private car owners to switch to public transport is the key to controlling theproportion of car trips. Nowadays, bus and subway always crowded. So it can’t attractprivate car owners. Positioned between the city buses and private cars, Customizedcity bus service (CCBS) is able to meet more urban multi-level, diversified passengertravel demand, particularly for private car owners, therefore, improve the road useefficiency and help relieve urban congestion.Empirical research shows from Beijing, CCBS play a significant part in reducethe amount of road traffic reducing stress parking spaces in workplace, energy savingand reduce traffic accident. From Guangzhou and Shenzhen situation can be seen, the other first-tier cities also have demands for CCBS. The empirical research on Xi’analso shows, second-tier cities demand for CCBS as urgent as first-tier cities. Usingbinary logistic regression model to researched on the influencing factors on CCBS.There are3main factors affected passengers accept fares as to whether there is a seat,stops times and commuting distance. Combined Xi’an Hi-tech Zone Social Authorityand Bus Corporation advices, the study also plan a CCBS line which from the easternoutskirts to the high-tech zones. Aiming at operating conditions of CCBS, the studyput forwards the basic principles of developing models for the vehicle. In the sametime, offered the data and technical support for the market of CCBS.更多还原