【作者】 李兆磊；

【导师】 吴群琪；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 物流枢纽作为区域综合运输体系的关键节点，是各种运输方式设施设备及货源的聚集地，亦是区域内部和对外主要的货流中转地，对周边区域具有较强的吸引辐射效应，在区域物流系统中占据极其重要的地位。但是在当前综合运输体系建设过程中，物流枢纽建设相对滞后，各种运输方式、物流过程之间有效衔接性不强，成为严重制约区域物流效率与效益的主要瓶颈。物流枢纽规划建设过程中出现的严重滞后、盲目超前、贪大求全等问题，主要是对物流枢纽系统演化及其发展阶段认识不清，未能准确把握物流枢纽与运输通道、交通网络以及区域社会经济发展之间的适应性关系。并且由于区域物流量的爆发式增长，很多区域都是基于简单的“运量需求决定论”大规模建设物流枢纽设施，从未真正反思过物流枢纽的承载能力。要充分发挥物流枢纽的效能，其首要前提是在资源环境等的约束条件下对物流枢纽承载能力有准确的认知和衡量。并在此基础上，发现和改善物流枢纽的薄弱环节，保护物流枢纽的重要节点和线路，优化物流枢纽结构，避免因内外部扰动因素影响而导致的承载能力下降甚至脆弱崩溃现象，以实现物流枢纽的可持续发展。基于此，论文以复杂系统理论、区域物流理论、交通运输规划理论等相关理论为指导，从区域物流网络体系宏观层面和物流枢纽系统中观层面切入，在对物流枢纽系统构成、功能定位和辐射效应分析的基础上，主要对物流枢纽系统演化及其承载能力展开研究。研究的主要目的是按照物流枢纽系统演化规律完善物流枢纽功能，优化物流枢纽结构，并在资源约束条件下，提升物流枢纽承载能力，防控物流枢纽脆弱性，最终实现物流枢纽可持续发展。论文以物流枢纽可持续发展为研究主线，首先在辨析物流枢纽与相关枢纽概念的基础上，阐述了物流枢纽的内涵及特征，明确了物流枢纽的层次结构及功能定位，分析了物流枢纽的形成原因及过程，并对物流枢纽的辐射范围及辐射效应进行了研究，印证了物流枢纽的开放性；继而基于复杂系统理论，阐释了物流枢纽的耗散结构特性和内在演化机制，分析了物流枢纽系统演化机理与演化条件，构建了物流枢纽系统演化模型，总结了物流枢纽系统演化的发展阶段及各阶段特征；在此基础上，一方面，基于承载能力概念及相关理论梳理，对物流枢纽承载能力概念进行界定，分析了物流枢纽承载能力的特性，构建了物流枢纽承载能力结构模型，并利用状态空间法对物流枢纽承载状态进行描述；另一方面，基于物流枢纽网络特性，将物流枢纽承载能力转化为枢纽微网络承载能力网络容量，构建了多约束条件下的物流枢纽承载能力网络容量模型；最后，对物流枢纽脆弱性进行分析，在物流枢纽脆弱性内涵及特性分析的基础上，阐释了物流枢纽脆弱性的影响因素、表现形式及作用机理，基于功效性对物流枢纽结构脆弱性进行评价，以确定物流枢纽结构脆弱度，并提出了物流枢纽脆弱性的防控机制。论文的研究能够有效促进物流枢纽基础理论的发展，同时对于完善区域综合运输体系，制定科学合理的物流枢纽发展战略具有一定的指导意义。与已有研究相比，本文的创新之处主要体现在如下几个方面：⑴基于耗散结构理论，分析了物流枢纽系统演化的内在机制，以枢纽物流量为序参量，构建了物流枢纽系统演化模型及物流枢纽系统演化组合模型，并提出了物流枢纽系统的发展阶段及演化路径。⑵将承载能力概念与物流枢纽相结合，构建了基于状态空间法的物流枢纽承载能力概念模型，并从枢纽微网络角度，对物流枢纽基础设施承载能力进行定量研究，构建了多约束条件下的物流枢纽承载能力网络容量模型。⑶对物流枢纽结构脆弱性进行分析，基于功效性对物流枢纽结构脆弱性进行评价，以确定物流枢纽结构脆弱度，并提出了物流枢纽脆弱性的防控机制。更多还原

【Abstract】 Logistics hub as the key node of regional integrated transport system is an attractiveplace for any mode of transport facilities and goods, is also the area of internal and externalmain goods transit area, having a strong appeal to radiation effect for the surrounding area,and occupying very important position in regional logistics system. But in the currentconstruction process of integrated transport system, the construction of the logistics hub isrelative lag, the less effective connection between the various modes of transportation,become the main bottleneck of restricting the area logistics efficiency and the benefit. In theprocess of planning and construction of Logistics hub system appears serious problem, suchas lag, the blind, and go in for grandiose projects, the reason is mainly on unclearunderstanding the evolution and development of logistics hub system stage, and failed toaccurately grasp the adaptability of relations between the logistics hub, transport corridor,traffic network and the economic development of regional social. Also, due to the explosivegrowth of the area logistics quantity, many areas large-scale construct logistics hub facilitiesare based on the simple traffic demand "determinism", and never really reflect on the logisticshub carrying capacity. To give full play to the efficiency of logistics hub, the premise is thathaving accurate cognition and measure for the carrying capacity of logistics hub under theresources and environment constraint conditions; as well as discover and improve the weaklink of logistics hub, protect the important node and logistics hub line, optimize the structureof logistics hub, to avoid the effects of internal and external disturbance factors led to thedecrease of the system capacity and even collapse phenomenon. In conclusion, from themacro level of regional logistics network system and the micro level of logistics hub, and onthe bases of the analysis of the logistics hub system structure, function and radiation effect,the paper in-depth study the internal evolution mechanism and carrying capacity of thelogistics hub system with the complex system theory, the regional logistics, and thetransportation planning related theory. The main purpose of the study is that perfect thefunction of logistics hub, optimize the structure of logistics hub according to the logistics hubsystem evolution rule, and under the condition of resource constraints, improve logistics hubcarrying capacity, and prevent the vulnerability of logistics hub, ultimately realize the sustainable development of the logistics hub.Firstly, on the basis of the discrimination of the concept of logistics hub and the hub, thepaper expounds the connotation of logistics hub and system characteristics, indicates thelogistics hub structure and functional orientation, analyzes the forming reason and process oflogistics hub, and studying the scope of logistics hub radiation and the radiation effect,confirm the openness of the system; then interpret the dissipative structure characteristic ofthe logistics hub and the internal evolution mechanism based on the complex system theory,analyzes the evolution mechanism and evolution conditions of the logistics hub system, setup the logistics hub evolution model, summarizes the development stage and thecharacteristics of the logistics hub evolution process, and leads to the logistics hub carryingcapacity research according to the logistics hub evolution threshold; On this basis of, on onehand, based on combing the concept of carrying capacity and related theory, defining theconcept of carrying capacity of logistics hub, analysis the characteristics of the carryingcapacity of logistics hub, build the structure model of logistics hub carrying capacity, and usethe state space method for description the logistics hub load state; on the other hand, based onfeatures of complex network system, on this basis of the concept model of the logistics hubinfrastructure carrying capacity, converting the logistics hub carrying capacity to hub micronetwork system carrying capacity of network capacity, constructs the network capacity modelof logistics hub carrying capacity under multiple constraints.Thesis research can effectively promote the development of the theory of logistics hub,at the same time, has a certain guiding significance for perfection the regional comprehensivetransportation system, and formulation scientific and rational development strategy oflogistics hub. Compared with the existing research, the innovation of this paper mainly showsin the following aspects:⑴Based on the dissipative structure theory, the paper has analyzed the evolutionmechanism of logistics hub system, and constructed the logistics hub system evolution modeland logistics hub system evolution model with the hub logistics quantity as order parameter,and put forward the evolution path of logistics hub and stage of development.⑵Combining the concept of carrying capacity and logistics hub, the structure model oflogistics hub carrying capacity and the conceptual model of logistics hub carrying capacity with state space method has constructed. From the perspective of hub micro network,Quantitative research is carried out on carrying capacity of logistics hub infrastructure andconstructed the network capacity model for logistics hub carrying capacity under multipleconstraints.⑶Study the structure of logistics hub vulnerability, constructed based on the efficiencystructural the vulnerability assessment model of logistics hub structure to determine thelogistics hub vulnerability, and put forward the prevention and control mechanism of logisticshub vulnerability.更多还原