【作者】 李忻忻；

【导师】 陈立文；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 技术经济及管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 房地产市场是一个周期波动的市场，波动幅度太大会影响国民经济的发展和人们的正常生活。保证房地产市场均衡、健康的发展是政府的主要任务之一，也是广大人民群众期盼的目标之一。房地产市场受宏观经济政策影响较大，由于土地资源的稀缺性及在房地产市场的重要性，土地政策已成为一项重要的房地产市场宏观调控政策。通过土地资源的有效配置可对房地产市场的相关指标产生有利的作用，使房地产市场波动性减小，较为均衡地运行。本文通过对房地产市场运行现状的研究，找出房地产市场运行指标和土地资源配置要素的关系，确定合理的土地储备规模、供应时机、供应结构等土地资源配置要素，以期在我国土地政策的制定中起到一定的参考作用。本文主要从以下几个方面展开研究：(1)在目前土地资源配置的基础上，对我国房地产市场运行现状进行分析，选取房价和商品房销售面积为分析指标，运用马尔柯夫法对未来五年房地产市场的发展趋势进行预测，运用层次分析法建立房地产市场运行状况的综合评价指标体系，同时计算我国近几年的房地产市场均衡系数。(2)在房地产市场均衡发展的条件下，运用BP神经网络、RBF神经网络、回归分析、时间序列预测理论、灰色系统理论等确定土地需求量；运用库存理论建立土地的最优储备规模模型；考虑风险的因素，以促进房地产市场均衡发展为目标，提出土地安全库存量的概念。(3)运用神经网络建立房地产市场中各要素和土地供应面积之间的关系；通过不断改变土地供应面积的变化时间考察土地供应时序对房价、商品房销售额的影响，以房价、商品房销售额波幅最小为准则，确定土地最优供应时机；比较土地供应时机调整前后的房地产市场均衡系数。(4)利用聚类分析的方法分别根据供给、需求、市场三个方面的指标对我国31省市的房地产市场分成四类，并对四类房地产市场的均衡状况和土地供应状况进行分析；运用灰色系统理论，分别建立各类住房供应面积的年增长率和各类住房土地供应面积比例与房价、商品房销售面积的关系模型。(5)结合我国国情，提出促使我国房地产市场均衡发展的土地储备规模、土地供应时机、土地供应结构等资源配置方面的政策。本论文最终建立了涉及供给、需求、交易状况和宏观调控四个方面的房地产市场均衡发展状态的指标体系，指标体系可作为评价各年份或者各城市房地产市场运行状况的依据；根据房地产市场运行指标和土地资源配置要素的关系，确定了合理的土地储备规模、供应时机和供应结构；以此为基础，分别对各土地资源配置要素改变前后房地产市场的均衡状况进行了比较；根据分析结果，提出了适合中国房地产市场的土地政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate market presents a cyclic fluctuation, which is inevitable but within areasonable range, or the development of national economy and people’s normal life will beaffected. It has been one of the main tasks for government to achieve the balanced andhealthy development of real estate market, which is at the same time one of the goals themasses looking forward to. Real estate market, a kind of policy-oriented market, is subjectto macro-economic policies, for the scarcity of the land and importance of real estatemarket, land policy has come into part of real estate market macro-control policies. Theeffective deployment of land resources is beneficial to related indices of real estate marketand contributes to balanced operation of real estate market. Grounded upon the operation ofreal estate market, elements of reasonable reserve scale, supply timing and supply structurein land resources allocation are determined respectively. All in all, effective allocation ofland resources is favorable to related indices of real estate market and balanced operation ofreal estate market.First, following the actual allocation of land resources, analyze the status quo of realestate market operation; forecast the development of real estate market in the forthcomingfive years with the method of Markov by housing prices and real estate sales; establishcomprehensive assessment index system of real estate operation with the use of analytichierarchy process, at the same time, calculate equilibrium coefficient of real estate marketin recent years.Second, in the condition of balanced development of real estate market, make clear theamount of land requirements by BP neural network, RBF neural network, regressionanalysis, theories of time series prediction and gray system; establish the model of landoptimal reserves by inventory theory; considering risk factors, propose the concept of landsafety inventory in order to promote the balanced development of the real estate market.Third, build up the relationship between the elements and supply of land area in realestate market using neural networks; determine optimum land supply timing through theinvestigation of the effect of land supply timing on housing price and commercial housingsales by the relentless changing time of land supply area; compare equilibrium coefficientsof real estate market before and after the adjustment of land supply timing.Fourth, divide the real estate market in31provinces and cities on China’s mainland intofour categories according to the three indices of supply, demand and market by cluster analysis, then analyze the balance and land supply of the four kinds of real estate markets;forge the relational model of annual growth rate of supply of various types, supply arearatio of various types, housing prices and real estate sales respectively with gray systemtheory.Fifth, combined with China’s national conditions, strategies concerning land resourcesallocation in the aspects of land reserve scale, land supply timing and land supply structureare put forward to obtain the balanced development of real estate market.In this dissertation, index system of balanced development status of real estate marketconcerning the four aspects of supply, demand, transaction results and macro-control isfinally set up, which can be used to evaluate the operation status of real estate market ineach year or each city; the reasonable land reserve scale, supply timing and supply structureis established in view of the relationship between the operation indices of real estate marketand allocation elements of land resources, and based upon this, the contrast before and afterthe allocation element changes of land resources of real estate market’s equilibrium status ismade, then, suggestions on land policies that are appropriate to China’s real estate market isproposed.更多还原