【作者】 范宏杰；

【导师】 王云峰；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 城市是人类文明的标志，是人们经济、政治和社会生活的中心。城市化的程度是衡量一个国家和地区经济、社会、文化、科技水平的重要标志，也是衡量国家和地区社会组织程度和管理水平的重要标志。同时，房地产业在提高人民生活水平、改善产业结构、扩大就业、促进城市化等方面起到了积极的推动作用。从某种意义上来说，房地产就是城市化的载体，城市化进程同房地产业的发展是相辅相成的，这就要求房地产业与城市化必须同步、协调发展。因此，如何将城市化进程与房地产业健康发展有机结合起来，使房地产业的发展战略、政策措施与城市化方针政策协调一致，既能够稳步推进城市化进程，又可以促进房地产业持续健康发展，成为政府决策部门和学术理论界关注的焦点之一。本文在理论研究的基础上选择了区域城市化水平和房地产业发展的评价指标，通过实证检验后确定了城市化和房地产业发展的综合评价指标体系。在此基础上对河北省近些年的相关数据进行统计分析与实证研究，剖析区域城市化水平与房地产业发展的内在关系，揭示区域城市化发展对于房地产业的影响与作用机制，进而提出区域城市化与房地产业协调发展的对策。本文的主要贡献和创新点体现为四个方面：（1）通过理论和实证研究，构建了区域城市化的评价模型与指标体系，并结合河北省2001-2010年的指标数据对模型进行检验，得到优化的评价模型和最终的评价指标。通过对城市化初始20个观测指标近十年的数据进行探索性和验证性因素分析，最终确定了包含13个二级指标的评价体系，被划分为经济发展、社会资源、生活质量、公共服务四个一级指标，形成了具有良好信度和效度的区域城市化发展评价模型。（2）通过理论和实证研究，构建了房地产业发展的评价模型与指标体系，并结合河北省2005-2010年的指标数据进行检验，得到优化的评价模型和最终的评价指标。通过对房地产业初始20个观测指标近六年的数据进行探索性和验证性因素分析，最终确定了包含11个二级指标的评价体系，被划分为发展规模、发展均衡、土地经营三个一级指标，形成了具有良好信度和效度的房地产业发展评价模型。（3）通过实证研究，检验了河北省各地区在城市化进程与房地产业发展方面的差异，揭示地区之间差异的内在和外在因素，提出省内战略统筹与均衡发展的策略。采用既定的评价指标体系和因子得分，对河北省及各地区，以及全国的城市化与房地产业发展水平进行了综合评价，针对各地区发展水平的不同做了聚类分析，针对河北省与全国的发展水平作了趋势对比分析。最后针对聚类分析和趋势对比分析，总结了河北省总体城市化和房地产业发展方向和各地区的发展对策。（4）通过实证研究，检验区域城市化与房地产业发展之间的内在关系，进而提出城市化与房地产业协调发展的对策。在文献研究的基础上，结合评价模型的研究结果，以河北省为例，构建了城市化与房地产业发展关系的研究假设，包括城市化变量及各因子与房地产业发展变量的关系假设，以及城市化变量及各因子与房地产发展各因子之间的关系假设。通过对河北省2005-2010年的城市化和房地产业发展的指标数据进行相关分析、回归分析和结构方程模型分析，检验了全部研究假设，最后针对假设检验的结果提出了城市化与房地产业协调发展的管理对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a symbol for civilization, a city becomes the center of economy, politics and social lifefor human beings. The degree of urbanization measures weightily for a country or a region thelevel of economy, society, culture and technology as well as the degree of social organization andthe level of management. Meanwhile, real estate industry plays an active role to enhance livingstandards, improve industry structure, enlarge employment and promote urbanization. In a sense,real estate industry is the supporter for urbanization, and the progress of urbanization and thedevelopment of real estate industry complement each other, so it requires a synchronous andharmonious development for both sides. Therefore, it turns to be the focus for both thedecision-making section in the government and the academic circle on how to integrate theprocess of urbanization and the healthy development of real estate industry to coordinatedevelopment strategies and policy measures for real estate industry with guidelines forurbanization so that the urbanization can be steadily promoted and real estate industry cansustain a healthy development.This paper is designed to make clear the evaluation index for the level of regionalurbanization and the development of real estate industry by means of theoretical research so as toestablish a comprehensive evaluation and analysis system for urbanization and real estateindustrial development. Based on this, it carries on a statistical analysis and an empirical study ofrelevant data in Hebei province for recent years. Thus it explores the internal relationshipbetween the level of regional urbanization and the development of real estate industry, revealsthe influence mechanism of regional urbanization on real estate industry, and then puts forwardcountermeasures for the coordinated development of both sides.The paper is mainly contributed and innovative in the following four aspects:(1) By means of the theoretical and empirical study, it has established an evaluation modeland an index system for regional urbanization, and obtains an optimized evaluation model andthe final evaluation index by examining the model according to the index data from2001to2010in Hebei province. With the exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of the data of20observation indexes for early urbanization during recent ten years, an evaluation system including13secondary indexes has been finally established, divided into four first-level indexes:economic development, social resources, quality of life and public service, which has developedinto an evaluation model for regional urbanization with sound reliability and validity.(2) By means of the theoretical and empirical study, it establishes an evaluation model andan index system for real estate industrial development, and obtains an optimized evaluationmodel and the final evaluation index by examining the index data from2005to2010in Hebeiprovince. With the exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of the data of20observationindexes for early real estate industry during recent six years, an evaluation system including11secondary indexes has been finally established, divided into three first-level indexes:development scale, balanced development, and land management, which has developed into anevaluation model for real estate industrial development with sound reliability and validity.(3) Through the empirical study, it has examined the difference for regions in Hebeiprovince in the process of urbanization and the development of real estate industry, uncoveredthe internal and external factors for regional difference and brought forward strategies forprovincial strategy planning and balanced development. By adopting the established evaluationindex system and factor score, it has made a comprehensive evaluation of the urbanization andthe development level of real estate industry for Hebei province and the whole country, making acluster analysis according to the regional difference of development and making a contrastiveanalysis for the trends according to the development level of Hebei Province and the nation.Based on this, it draws a conclusion for the development direction of the overall urbanizationand real estate industry, and the development countermeasure for all regions in Hebei province.(4) Through the empirical study, it examines the inner relationship between regionalurbanization and the development of real estate industry, and proposes measures for coordinateddevelopment between urbanization and real estate industry. Based on document research andresearch results from the evaluation model, taking Hebei province as an example, it formulates aresearch hypothesis on the relationship between urbanization and real estate industrialdevelopment, including the relational assumption between variables and factors for urbanizationand variables for real estate industrial development, and the relational assumption betweenvariables and factors for urbanization and factors for real estate industrial development. Bymaking a correlation analysis, a regression analysis and an analysis of structural equation modelfor index data of urbanization and real estate industrial development in Hebei province from2005to2010, it has tested all of the research hypotheses, and on account of results from thehypothesis test, proposed management countermeasures for coordinated development betweenurbanization and real estate industry.更多还原