【作者】 王小春；

【导师】 包景岭；

【作者基本信息】 河北工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 始于1992年的“老农保”由于筹资机制不健全、给付水平过低等原因缺乏可持续性而最终难以为继。2009年开始试点实行的新型农村社会养老保险（简称“新农保”）对于逐步改变农民养老方式、缩小城乡差距、维护社会和谐稳定具有重要进步意义。作为一项关系到亿万农民切身利益的社会系统民生工程，新农保的可持续性是其能否具有强大生命力的关键制约条件。所以，为避免重蹈老农保覆辙，在其实施初期，有必要对其是否具有可持续性及如何做到可持续发展进行系统、深入的研究探讨。本文在明确养老保险制度可持续发展等概念的内涵基础上，由制度发展演变的角度出发，从新农保制度设计、制度运行、制度监管、制度调整和制度目标实现以及外部宏观环境等六大方面构建新农保可持续性评价指标体系，运用层次分析法确定指标权重，明确了单个指标可持续性等级评价值的确定方法以及整体可持续性等级的划分。然后，以河北省为实例，开展实证研究，最终得出河北省新农保在2009-2030年间的整体可持续性水平，最后，针对可持续性评价，对以上各方面进行系统思考，提出切实可行的可持续发展对策。本文主要分为五部分：第一部分（第1、2章），介绍研究背景、目的和意义、研究方法、研究内容及主要创新点；界定相关概念，阐述制度变迁、公共财政等理论基础；对新农保及养老保险可持续发展相关研究进行综述。第二部分（第3章），介绍我国农保制度发展历程，并进行相关反思。第三部分（第4、5章），构建新农保可持续性评价指标体系，明确可持续性水平评分办法及等级划分，并以河北省为实例，开展实证分析。第四部分（第6章），从完善制度内容设计、提升制度运行能力、改进制度监管体系等方面构建新农保可持续发展框架策略，并提出相关对策建议。第五部分（第7章），进行研究总结和展望。本文的创新点在于，一是构建了新农保可持续性评价指标体系并对主要指标开展定量测算，二是构建了养老保险关系城乡衔接机制，三是对个人账户计发系数、最低基础养老金及增长机制以及缴费激励机制等方面提出了可持续发展对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The old rural social pension insurance system which began in1992was lack ofsustainability because of its imperfect financing mechanism and the too low benefit level,ultimately it became failure. The new rural social pension insurance system (abbreviatedform of “new rural insurance”) that was pilot implemented from2009has importantprogressive significance in such aspects as gradually changing farmers’ age support,narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas, maintaining social harmony and stability.As a social livelihood projects related to the vital interests of the hundreds of millions offarmers, the sustainability of new rural insurance is the key constraints on its ability to havea strong vitality. So, to avoid a repeat of the mistakes of old rural insurance, it is necessaryto carry out systematic and in-depth research on its sustainability and how to achievesustainable development in its early stage of implementation.Defining the connotation of sustainable development of endowment insurance systemand so on, this paper builds evaluation index system for the sustainability of new ruralinsurance from the design, running, supervision, adjustment, objectives achievement andexternal macro-environment of the system based on the perspective of system evolution,determines the index weight using Analytic Hierarchy Process, clears method fordetermining sustainability level evaluation value of single indicator and the classification ofoverall sustainability. Then it takes Hebei Province as an example to conduct empiricalresearch.Eventually it draws the conclusion of the overall sustainability level in2009-2030of new rural insurance in Hebei Province. At last it ponders the whole system on the basisof sustainability assessment and puts forward practical sustainable development measures.This paper is divided into five parts. The first part (Chapters1,2) introduces theresearch background, purpose and significance, methods, main contents and innovation,defines some relevant concepts, introduces the development course of China’s agriculturalinsurance system, elaborates theoretical basis such as institutional change, public finance,reviews the literature about new rural insurance and sustainable development of the pensioninsurance. The second part (Chapter3) introduces the development process of China’sagricultural insurance system, carries out some relevant reflection. The third part (Chapters4and5) builds evaluation index system for the sustainability of new rural insurance, clearsmethod for determining sustainability level evaluation value of single indicator and theclassification of overall sustainability, and takes Hebei Province as an example to conduct empirical research. The fourth part (Chapter6) builds a policy framework for thesustainable development of new rural insurance from improving system design, enhancingthe ability of system operation, improving the regulatory system. And it makes somesuggestions. The fifth part (Chapter7) is research summary and outlook. The innovation ofthis paper lies in the following aspects. First, it develops evaluation index system for thesustainability of new rural insurance and carries out quantitative estimation for mainindicators. Secondly, it builds convergence mechanism of urban and rural pension insurancerelationship.Thirdly,it puts forward well-founded sustainable development countermeasuresabout individual account divisor coefficient, minimum basic pension and growthmechanism, and payment incentives.更多还原