【作者】 马辉；

【导师】 王建军；

【作者基本信息】 长安大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 本文以路网环境下高速公路交通安全和高效运行的需求为出发点，综合采用文献研究法、数学建模法、经验总结法、对比分析法、功能分析法等对高速公路运行保障技术体系进行了研究，内容包括高速公路交通安全风险预警、高速公路交通事故影响范围分析、事故条件下高速公路交通运行状态评价、事故条件下高速公路交通组织技术、高速公路交通设施运行效率保障技术以及事故条件下高速公路交通组织管理系统研究。对于常态情况，为了预防和减少事故发生，研究了高速公路交通安全风险预警。将高速公路交通安全风险预警分为一级预警——高速公路交通安全风险评价和二级预警——高速公路交通安全风险敏感性分析。对于一级预警，论文将层次分析法（AHP）、逼近理想点排序法（TOPSIS）、秩和比法（RSR）三种方法结合起来，创新性地形成了基于AHP-T OPSIS-RSR法的高速公路交通安全风险评价模型，通过结算得到高速公路交通安全风险等级；对于二级预警，论文采用基于正交试验的敏感度分析法，根据敏感度值排序确定敏感风险因素。对于事故发生的情形，通过研究事故条件下车辆绕行行为，研究了高速公路交通事故影响范围。将事故条件下驾驶人的路径选择行为分为“绕行”和“不绕行”两类；对于不绕行的情况，用交通波理论研究受高速公路交通事故影响的路段范围；对于绕行的情况，用改进的Logit随机路径选择模型研究上游车辆的绕行路径选择状况，得到受绕行影响的各路段的交通量；通过对比正常情况下与事故绕行情况下各路段交通量的变化情况，确定哪些路段为受影响路段，最终确定高速公路交通事故影响路网。为了确定高速公路交通事故影响程度，通过建立针对事故条件下高速公路节点、路段、路网三个层面的交通运行状态评价指标体系和评价方法，根据事故条件下节点、路段、路网所处的交通运行状态的优劣来确定事故影响程度的大小。为了快速消除事故影响，在区域交通组织基础理论——包括路网形态分析、事故影响区划分、事故持续时间分析和主要交通组织方式及其适应性分析的基础上，重点针对基本路段和隧道事故的紧急交通组织技术进行了研究，确定了不同事故情形下的交通组织方案。为了在常态条件下防止事故发生和事故条件下减轻事故伤害，研究了高速公路交通设施运行保障技术问题。在国内外最新技术规范和标准的基础上，引入国内外先进的交通设施设计理念，应用最新的理论和应用成果，分别研究了交通标志、标线、护栏、可变信息标志（VMS）、以及其他安全设施的优化，并从照明灯具选择及照明控制两方面对隧道照明进行了优化。最后，为了实现路网环境下高速公路交通安全和运行效率保障技术体系的计算机化，研究了事故条件下高速公路交通组织管理系统，设计了系统框架。论文的研究对于解决目前我国高速公路存在的交通安全状况差和运行效率低的问题，改善高速公路运行状况、提高抗风险能力，从而提高运营效益，具有较大的理论和应用意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 To meet the safe and efficient travel demand of freeway under network conditions, thefreeway operating guarantee technology system is studied using a combination of literature,mathematics modeling, experience summarization method, contrast analysis, functionalanalysis, etc. The study consists of the warning of freeway traffic safety risk, the effect offreeway traffic accident, the evaluation of freeway traffic operational condition under trafficaccident conditions, freeway traffic organization technologies under traffic accidentconditions, freeway traffic facilities optimization and freeway traffic organizationmanagement system.For normal circumstances, the warning of freeway traffic safety risk is studied to preventand reduce traffic accident. It is divided into the primary warning and the secondary warning,which corresponds to freeway traffic safety risk evaluation and freeway traffic safety risksensitivity analysis. Regarding the primary warning, The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS), and Rank SumRatio(RSR) are used in combination and a new method is formed, that is, AHP-TOPSIS-RSR.And a freeway traffic safety risk evaluation model is built based on AHP-TOPSIS-RSR,through which the freeway traffic safety risk level can be gained. With regard to thesecondary warning, a sensitive analysis method based on the orthogonal test is used, and thesensitive aspects can be identified according to the sensitivity values of different aspects.Under traffic accident conditions, the effect of freeway traffic accident is studied throughresearch on vehicles’detouring behavior. The route choice behavior of drivers under trafficaccident conditions can be classified into “detouring” and “no-detouring”. For the former, thetraffic wave theory can be applied to calculate the length of influenced road segment. For thelatter, the modified Logit random route choice model is used. Via the model, the route choicebehavior of vehicles on the upstream road can be mastered, and the traffic volumes of relatedroad sections can be obtained. Compare the traffic volumes under normal conditions andunder traffic accident, the influenced road sections can be identified, and finally the influencenetwork can be determined. In order to determine the influence degree of freeway traffic accident, freeway runningstate evaluation index system are specially established for nodes、road section、network underaccident conditions. The influence extent of traffic accidents is determined according to thecalculated traffic running state of the above places.So as to eliminate accident influence quickly, based on the emergent traffic organizationtheories, which include network morphology analysis, accident duration analysis, accidentaffected zone division, main traffic organization modes and their adaptability analysis, thebasic roads and tunnels are focused on. The emergency traffic organization techniques arestudied and the corresponding emergent traffic organization schemes are elaborated.In order to prevent accidents under normal conditions and reduce the extent of accidentinjuries under accident conditions, the freeway traffic facilities operation efficiencytechnologies are studied. Founding on the latest technical specifications and standards homeand abroad, introducing advanced traffic facility design concepts, and applying the latesttheories and research results, the optimization of traffic signs, traffic markings, guardrails,variable message signs (VMS) and other safety facilities are explored. Besides, tunnel lightingoptimization is studied from two aspects: selection of the lighting devices and lightingcontrol.Finally, in order to computerize the technology guarantee system of freeway trafficsafety and operation efficiency, the framework of freeway traffic organization andmanagement system is designed.For solving the freeway problems of poor traffic safety status and low operationefficiency in our country at present, further improving the freeway running state andenhancing anti-risk capability thus increasing the operation benefit, the research results of thepaper are of great theoretical and practical significance.更多还原