【作者】 都基安；

【导师】 王建平；

【作者基本信息】 中国矿业大学 ， 工程管理， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 煤炭生产对于维护国家能源安全、满足经济社会发展需要、调整和优化煤炭产业结构、促进资源地区经济社会发展具有十分重要的意义。可是，限于煤炭发展规划的扩大，存在不按正常建设程序进行项目审批和建设的现象，导致煤矿建设项目的安全能力下降，风险隐患增加，安全事故增多，进而造成煤矿建设项目安全事故多发，出现大量人员伤亡和财产损失，煤矿建设生产安全形势比较严峻。迫切需要分析煤矿建设项目安全能力衰退机理，准确诊断与发现影响安全能力潜在的和显现的各类安全隐患，构建煤矿建设项目安全事故预警系统。本论文以煤矿建设项目安全事故作为研究对象，基于传统安全事故致因理论与方法，借鉴系统理论，采用系统思考、系统动力学等研究方法，以有效控制煤矿建设项目安全事故为研究目标，对煤矿建设项目安全事故预警评价体系进行了研究，希望以此降低事故的发生频率和严重程度，保护煤矿建设项目从业人员生命健康。具体研究内容如下：（1）利用系统动力学STELLA软件建立8类煤矿建设项目安全事故的安全能力衰退机理模型，对煤矿建设项目不安全行为对项目安全体系安全能力衰退影响效果进行阶跃函数、脉冲函数及斜坡函数的测试模拟，从而探究煤矿建设项目安全事故安全能力的衰退机理和过程。结果显示：煤矿建设项目安全能力下降是由于项目安全体系四个层次产生的危险行为耦合效应造成的，当风险抵抗能力小于风险预警阈值时就会发生瓦斯、透水、高处坠落、模板坍塌及窒息中毒等安全事故。（2）通过对国内外相关文献研究进行归纳总结，以及对风险管理领域专家的问卷调查和访谈，对煤矿建设项目风险预警指标进行合理选取，构建了煤矿建设项目安全事故预警指标体系，该预警指标体系由建设单位预警指标体系、施工单位预警指标体系、项目部预警指标体系、现场作业预警指标体系四个预警指标体系构成，分别给出了人员预警指标、设备预警指标、环境预警指标和管理预警指标。（3）鉴于选取的预警指标大多属于模糊指标，通过构建评判函数和对模糊隶属度进行判别，并建立了煤矿建设项目安全预警指标评价函数和煤矿建设项目安全事故预警模型，同时给出了煤矿建设项目安全事故预警流程，并界定了煤矿建设项目安全预警的五个预警等级：一级红色预警、二级橙色预警、三级黄色预警、四级蓝色预警和五级绿色预警。（4）利用系统工程理论、控制论和计算机信息技术相关理论，确定“煤矿建设项目安全预警管理系统”的基本功能定位、系统开发流程与开发技术路线，开发了“煤矿建设项目安全管理预警信息系统”，包括煤矿建设项目的安全预警指标采集系统、安全评价系统和安全预警系统，为煤矿建设项目的安全预警提供可以实际操作的信息技术平台。（5）最后，在鄂尔多斯纳林河煤矿建设项目应用基于本文理论研究部分所设计的安全预警评价体系而开发的煤矿建设项目安全预警管理系统，分析结果显示：该评价系统能够基本反映该煤矿建设项目的安全状态，实证分析结果较好地支持了本论文的理论研究成果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Coal production has great significance for maintaining national energy security,meeting the economic and social development needs, adjusting and optimizing thestructure of the coal industry, and promoting the resource regions economic and socialdevelopment. However, limited to the expansion of coal development planning, therehas been the phenomenon such as violating the project approval and constructionprocedures, construction without authorization etc. Resulting in decreased quality ofexploration, design, construction in coal mine construction, and Increasing in securityincidents and pitfalls. Followed by safety accidents of coal mine construction projectoccur frequently, and a large number of casualties and property losses. The situationof coal mine construction safety in production is fairly severe. Therefore, there is anurgent need to analyze the cause of the mechanism of safety incidents in coal mineconstruction project, diagnosis and discovery accurately various types of potential andapparent safety risks, and build safety incidents early warning system of coal mineconstruction project.In this thesis, the safety incidents of coal mine construction project were as theresearch object, based on traditional safety accident causation theories and methods,drawing on systems theory, systems thinking, system dynamics and other researchmethods, we had a research safety accident warning system of coal mine constructionproject, in order to control the coal mine construction project safety incidents, andhope to reduce the accident frequency and severity of coal mine construction projectto protect life and health of employees. Specific studies are as follows:(1) Through the analysis of the system dynamics model, safety system of coalmine construction project is composed of four subsystems of the personnel,equipment, environment and management, it’s recession of the safety competencystems from the interaction between subsystems. The dissertation established the causemechanism model of8kinds of coal mine construction projects safety accidents,simulated the recession effect of unsafe behavior to the safety competency of theproject safety systems using pulse function, step function and slope function three testfunctions. Then found that coupling effects of unsafe behavior from the four structurallayers of the safety system in the coal mine construction project cause the decreasedof project safety competency. When the project safety competency below the threshold, the safety incidents such as gas, enhancing of the wellbore, flooding, roof,transport, falls, collapsing of template, poisoning and suffocation will happen.(2) According to the study of relevant literature and summarize, as well assurveys and interviews to the experts in the field of risk management, the thesis madea reasonable selection for the risk warning indicator of mine construction project. Thedissertation built the early warning indicator system of safety incidents in coal mineconstruction projects. The early warning indicator system consists of owner,construction unit, project department and field operation four early warning indicatorsystems, and proposed early warning indicators of personnel, equipment, environmentand management respectively.(3) Through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, analyzed the indexsystem in detailed, and proposed the safety risk early warning model and earlywarning processes of the mine construction projects. The dissertation defined the fivewarning levels for safety warning of coal mine construction project: level1red alert,level2orange warning, level3yellow warning, level4blue warning and level5green warning, developed the safety early warning system of coal mine constructionproject, including the acquisition system, safety evaluation system and safety earlywarning system of safety early warning indicators in coal mine construction project. Italso provided the IT platform which operats actually for the safety warning of coalmine construction project.(4) Using the theory of systems engineering, cybernetics and computerinformation, the dissertation determined the basic functional orientation, systemdevelopment process and technology roadmap of development of the safety warningin coal mine construction project, including the acquisition system, safety evaluationsystem and safety early warning system. It also provided the IT platform whichoperats actually for the safety warning of coal mine construction project.(5) Finally, the dissertation studied the application of safety early warning systemof coal mine construction project in Nalin River. The evaluation of the safety status inthe coal mine construction project fits the evaluation index system of safety warningin this dissertation basically. The result of case study supports the result of theoreticalstudies in this paper well.更多还原