【作者】 郭晓旸；

【导师】 刘洪玉；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 土地市场和住房市场的互动关系一直是国内外理论和实践中关注的热点问题。近十年来，随着我国城市土地价格和住房价格持续快速上涨，相关争论愈发凸显。此外，在我国制度特点下，地方政府垄断土地供给并逐渐形成“土地财政”，对上述市场互动机制存在不可忽视的影响，从而使得关于我国城市土地市场和住房市场互动关系的讨论更加复杂也更加必要。论文首先基于土地市场引致需求理论和住房市场价格发现理论，以价格为市场间信号，提出了微观层面理想条件下土地市场和住房市场互动机制的理论分析框架——“信号—预期”理论模型。在该理论模型框架下，论文重点分析了作为市场互动机制核心问题的土地价格和住房价格内生关系的成立条件和变化规律，同时分析了我国制度特点下政府行为对市场互动机制的影响途径和影响效果。基于“信号—预期”理论模型，论文对北京市土地市场和住房市场互动机制进行了系统的实证研究。实证研究结果验证了理论模型的正确性，分析了土地市场和住房市场相互影响的效果和变化规律，证明了政府行为对于市场运行存在的影响。论文研究的主要结论有：（1）微观层面上，住房价格通过引致需求渠道影响土地市场价格和开发时机，土地价格通过价格发现过程影响住房价格和交易概率，价格是两个市场互动机制的重要纽带；（2）土地价格和住房价格的内生关系及其均衡水平依条件成立和变化；（3）“土地财政”对住房市场价格发现过程存在强化影响；（4）北京市土地市场存在显著的垄断结构，住房市场存在显著的垄断竞争结构和非有效性；（5）北京市土地价格和住房价格存在显著的内生关系，“土地财政”进一步推高了住房价格；（6）北京市住房交易概率与周边土地价格正相关，但相关性受空间距离和市场趋势等因素影响；（7）周边住房价格上涨会提高政府的土地出让概率，但政府对土地市场的垄断将延缓土地出让时间。论文建议逐步推进房产税制度改革、地方政府债券制度建设和土地出让收入用途调整，并在条件适宜时推动城市土地管理职能的分散和下移。通过以上措施，优化地方政府收入结构、提高土地市场竞争程度、降低政府行为对城市土地市场和住房市场运行的干扰，进而促进城市土地市场和住房市场的良性互动，促进住房市场的平稳健康发展和城市化进程的顺利推进。更多还原

【Abstract】 The interaction between land market and housing market has always been atheoretical and practical hotspot being focused on and argued with at home and abroad.Over the past decade, the debate was sharpened in China due to its rapidly ongoinggrowth of urban land price and housing price. Furthermore, the impact of the localgovernment’s monopoly position in the urban land market and the resulting so-calledland-finance behavior under China’s specific institution on such interaction cannot beignored easily, which makes the special research on the interaction relationship betweenurban land and housing markets much more complex and necessary.Based on the theory of derived demand of land market and the theory of pricediscovery of housing market, the Signal-Expectation Model (SEM), describing thetheoretical frame of the interaction between land market and housing market under themicroscopic perspective and ideal condition, is raised with the prices being used as theinter-market signals. According to SEM, the dissertation essentially analysis theprerequisites and the variation pattern of the endogenous relationship between landprice and housing price, which is the key issue of the interaction between the twomarkets, and the impact of local government’s behavior under China’s specificinstitution on such interaction. Additionally, the systematical empirical research isconducted for the SEM with the data from Beijing’s land market and housing market.The empirical results excellently support the theoretical model, demonstrate the leveland the variation pattern of the interaction between markets and illustrate the impact oflocal government’s behavior on the market.The main theoretical findings and empirical conclusions are:(1) in microscopicperspective, the housing price influences the land price and the land’s time todevelopment through the mechanism of derived demand, while the land price influencesthe housing price and the its sale probability through the process of price discovery,where the prices here are essential to connect one market to each other;(2) theendogenous relationship and the equilibrium result between land and housing prices arecontingent to exist and vary;(3) the land-finance behavior intensify the process of pricediscovery in housing market;(4) the monopoly competition structure and the inefficiency are significant in Beijing’ housing market, while the complete monopolystructure exists in Beijing’s land market;(5) the endogenous relationship between landand housing prices is significant in Beijing, where the government pushes up thehousing price through the land-finance behavior;(6) the sale probability of housingmarket is positively related to the surrounding land price, but the degree of suchcorrelation changes according to the spatial distance and the market trend;(7) theincreasing of housing price is to raise the probability of land-transfer by the localgovernment, the monopoly power of the local government, however, will prolong thetime on the market.The findings and conclusions imply the political suggestions that the property taxreform covering personal residential, the system of local government bond and theusage adjustment of land transfer income should be promoted step by step. Contingentlyon such promoting, furthermore, the autrority of urban land management should bediscentralized and moved down. The sugeestions is helpful to optimize the incomestructure of the local government, to enhance the contestability of urban land marketand to impair the impact of local government on the operation of urban land andhousing markets, which is, finanally, benefit to the virtuous interaction between landmarket and housing market, the stable and healthy development of housing market andthe progress of the urbanization.更多还原