【作者】 郝景芳；

【导师】 李子奈；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 应用经济学， 2012， 博士

【摘要】 本文利用贸易引力模型这一数量工具，研究了中国国际贸易中的热点问题。国际贸易一直是中国经济的重要组成部分，最近几年国内国际经济形势发生较大变化，中国的国际贸易也面临相应挑战。中国贸易受哪些因素影响，未来贸易的走势如何，不同区域之间贸易是否存在相互影响，不同行业的贸易是否具有不同规律，这些都是中国经济研究的核心问题。针对以上这些问题，本文采用贸易引力模型这一数量工具进行了深入探讨。贸易引力模型是国际上最常用的贸易数量方程。本文梳理了国际上引力模型研究新进展，并以此为基础，对中国和176个贸易伙伴国31年的贸易数据进行了回归分析，探讨了影响中国贸易的主要因素，尤其是加入世界贸易组织和区域协定对贸易整体的促进作用。同时，通过对比不同数据处理和计量方法的选择，本文还对方程设定和估计的计量方法进行了较全面的讨论。在此基础上，本文对中国贸易走势进行了预测。引力方程可以分析进出口的收入弹性和汇率弹性，在收入增长预测的基础上，可以计算进出口的增长预测。本文即根据国际货币基金组织对每个国家收入增长的预测，对进出口总额和贸易顺差分别了进行预测。在国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机余波未尽的情况下，这种方法可以评估欧美经济放缓对中国贸易的影响。本文还分析了空间因素对贸易的影响。通过将空间计量经济学引入引力模型，本文分析了不同区域之间贸易的相关性，并按照空间实质相关和空间残差相关，分别讨论了不同区域间贸易直接和间接的相互影响。这对于理解区域经济和分析贸易走势都具有重要意义。最后，本文对不同行业的贸易面板数据分别进行了引力模型分析，通过对比回归参数，对不同行业性质加以讨论。由结果发现，尽管汇率因素对贸易整体的影响作用不大，但是对于垂直专业化程度较高的几个行业有显著作用，且对进口和出口的影响同向，反映出国际经济一体化的独特特征，这意味着汇率调整并非解决中国贸易顺差问题的最有效手段。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper utilized the Gravity Equation as the econometric tool to study the hottopics in Chinese trade. The growth of trade was the most important engine of theeconomic growth of China. Which factors affect Chinese trade most, how Chinese tradewill evolve in the future, is there any correlations between trades from different regions,and are there any differences between trades in different sectors, are some of the corequestions in the trade studies.We applied the Gravity Equation to discuss these questions. Gravity Equation is themost applied mathematical tool in the international trade studies. We summarized thenew developments in recent studies and applied these developments to the studies ofChinese trades based on panel data of176trading partners and31years. We discussedthe factors that may affect Chinese trades, especially the events of accession to WTOand other regional trade agreements.Based on these studies, we made the prediction of the development of Chinesetrade in the near future. Using the income elasticity and exchange rate elasticity in theGravity Equation, we can calculate the prediction of trade growth based on thepredictions of GDP growths. According to the GDP growth predictions of eachcountries made by the IMF, we predicted the total trade as well as the surplus in2012.In the aftermath of international crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, this methodis crucial in impacting the effect of these crises on Chinese trades.We also studied the impact of space factors. By introducing the space econometricsinto the Gravity Equation, we discussed the correlations of trades from different regionsand discussed the direct and indirect impacts of trades by analyzing spatial lag modeland spatial error model.At last, we analyzed the panel data of trades from different sectors. By comparingthe regression parameters, we discussed the characteristics of different sectors. From theresults, we can see that although the bilateral exchange rate is not a factor thatsignificantly affects the total trade, it has significant impacts in several sectors with higher degrees of vertical specialization, and its impacts are found to be in the samedirection to exports and imports. This reflects the unique characteristic of the integrationof international economy and indicates that the adjustment of exchange rates may not bethe most effective methods in adjusting Chinese trade balances.更多还原