【作者】 单德朋；

【导师】 郑长德；

【作者基本信息】 西南民族大学 ， 中国少数民族经济， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 由于区位条件、资源禀赋以及历史原因，民族地区历来是我国贫困减缓工作的重点和难点所在。从1986年国务院扶贫办成立以来，各项反贫困政策均将民族地区作为重点瞄准区域。随着“贫困县政策”、“国家八七扶贫攻坚计划（1994-2000）”以及“中国农村扶贫开发纲要（2001-2010）”等的实施，民族地区贫困现象得到了极大缓解。但横向比较，民族地区贫困形势依然严峻：民族地区因灾因病返贫人口依然较多，返贫率较高；民族地区贫困深度和广度均高于同期全国整体水平；并且民族地区贫困人口自我发展能力不足，既往减贫成果对政策性扶贫、转移支付的倚重较大。在经济增长减贫效应趋于下降的背景下，民族地区有陷入慢性贫困和空间贫困陷阱的风险。如何实现民族地区可持续减贫，完成2020年全面建成小康社会奋斗目标，是民族地区在新世纪第二个十年面临的艰巨任务。因此，无论是基于保证人最基本权利的构建性目标，还是基于现实的工具性需要，我们都需要对民族地区的贫困问题给予更多关注，通过寻找和实施更有效的减贫政策措施，实现民族地区的全面彻底脱贫。基于厘清民族地区贫困发展趋势及寻找有效减贫措施的目的，本研究的主要内容包括两个方面：一是对民族地区的减贫历程进行全面回顾；二是分析影响民族地区贫困减缓的因素，并识别各因素影响减贫的机制。在民族地区减贫历程的分析中，首先从民族地区经济发展、产业结构演变、贫困人口收入、各收入组的收入、消费差异等方面，对影响民族地区贫困减缓的经济背景进行描述；然后构建贫困测度指数，从贫困发生率、贫困距、平方贫困距等方面对民族地区贫困进行量化测度，并分阶段详细分析了贫困演化趋势和规律。在分析民族地区贫困减缓的因素和影响机制时，从微观贫困主体入手，并置入当地经济社会发展的大背景，沿着“经济增长-就业-收入分配-收入提升（贫困减缓）”的思路展开。影响微观主体减贫的因素可以分为如下几个方面：（1）从需求层面影响贫困人口就业的因素，主要包括经济增长和产业结构，经济增长能够通过扩散作用对贫困人口的就业产生作用，而产业结构则主要通过决定劳动力的就业层次来影响贫困人口就业，一种低技能密集度较高的产业结构体系和增速更快的经济体其减贫效用将更为明显；（2）从供给层面影响贫困人口就业的因素，主要体现在贫困人口的人力资本方面，受教育年限更长以及教育质量更高的贫困人口将更容易在经济体中进行就业，并获得更高的人力资本回报；（3）从收入分配层面影响贫困人口从产出中获益的因素，主要体现在产品市场和劳动力市场加成能力两个方面，产品市场加成能力更强意味着资方和劳方有一个更高的议价存量，同时劳动市场加成所代表的劳动力讨价还价能力决定着议价存量在劳方和资方的分配情况。由于产品市场和劳动市场加成能力在一个均质区域内部、在一个相对较短的时间内属于稳定变量，故本文并没有着重分析这两个方面对贫困的影响，贫困影响因素的分析主要围绕经济增长、产业结构等劳动力需求变量以及受教育情况所表示的劳动力供给变量来分析。本文的结构安排为：第一章是引言，对研究背景、研究意义、研究内容重点难点、创新、不足之处以及未来进一步研究方向进行了界定。第二章是文献述评，对文章的涉及的主要概念进行了界定，并对涉及经济增长与贫困减除关系的相关文献进行了综述，从两者关系的理论沿革和主要实证结论入手，识别了影响经济增长贫困减缓效应的主要因素。第三章是民族地区经济社会发展和贫困演化的总体变动。对民族地区经济增长、产业结构、劳动力受教育情况以及贫困人口的收入变化和数量变化等统计数据进行整体描述，概略分析民族地区的减贫背景。第四章是贫困测度的理论研究，阐述了基于洛仑兹曲线的贫困测度方法，具体给出了贫困发生率、贫困距和平方贫困距指标测度方法。第五章和第六章是民族地区城乡贫困的动态演化，主要基于FGT贫困测度指数，研究民族地区城市和农村贫困的动态演化过程，全面把握2000年以来民族地区城乡贫困的收入变动、贫困发生率、贫困距以及平方贫困距的变动。并从细分省区的角度对其贫困的差异进行比较，识别了民族地区内部贫困演化的差异性。第七章是民族地区贫困减缓的理论分析框架，在识别民族地区城乡贫困特征的基础上，分析了影响贫困减缓的一般性因素以及其影响机制，最后结合民族地区的实际情况给出了研究民族地区贫困减缓的理论分析框架。第八章是经济增长、收入分配与民族地区贫困减缓，主要通过Datt-Ravallion分解方法，将贫困减缓分解为增长效应和分配效应，并计算了减贫的增长弹性和分配弹性。从而分析民族地区经济增长、收入分配与贫困减缓的关系。第九章是是产业结构、劳动密集度与民族地区贫困减缓，通过构建经济发展方式影响贫困减缓的理论框架和实证模型，将贫困减缓分解为经济增长效应和经济发展方式效应。结合民族地区经济发展事实，提出了经验假说，利用民族地区面板数据进行了实证检验，并分城市贫困和农村贫困进行了稳健性检验。第十章是教育结构、教育效能与贫困减缓，基于内生增长理论将教育引入经济增长模型，根据不同教育层次在不同技术前沿下的差异表现，在模型中纳入教育结构。运用省际动态面板数据，实证检验了人均教育经费支出和教育质量、数量与贫困减缓的关系，并分教育构成分析了不同教育阶段减贫效应的差异。第十一章是主要结论与研究展望，对本文的主要结论进行了归纳，并结合研究不足为未来进一步研究的方向进行了展望。本文的主要观点和结论为：第一，民族地区贫困人口数量持续下降，但下降速度低于全国平均水平，且贫困减速呈逐年下降态势，民族地区依然是全国贫困深度和广度最大的地区，且各项减贫手段的边际效用开始步入递减区间，减贫难度开始持续增加，其减贫进程滞后于全国整体水平，正在或者将要步入真正的减贫攻坚阶段。第二，影响微观贫困主体减贫的主要因素体现在劳动力需求、劳动力供给和收入分配等三个方面。经济增长和产业结构能够通过影响贫困人口的劳动力需求对贫困减缓产生影响，受教育程度和教育质量能够通过影响贫困人口的人力资本存量来带动减贫，收入分配则关系着经济增长向贫困人口收入的转化。因此，经济增长、产业结构、收入分配和人力资本是影响民族地区贫困减缓的主要因素。第三，经济增长对民族地区各收入分组居民的影响并非均质，各更高收入分组的居民从经济增长中获益更多。民族地区的现有减贫政策有盯住贫困线附近人群的短期功利偏好。在该种政策引导下，贫困线附近的最低收入户将能够较快的实现收入、消费水平的提升，但这些政策并没有对深度贫困者形成明显的福利改善。第四，西部大开发政策实施之初，民族地区的总量增长对所有群体都有显著的扩散效应，各收入分组的消费稳步增加。但外部植入的经济发展方式的溢出却并非是均质的，较低收入者的获益少于中高收入者。随着民族地区对外部植入经济的逐渐吸纳和政府对于公平与效率的重新审视，民族地区经济增长的益贫性逐渐增加。由于民族地区产业构成并非内生演化的结果，其拼接和移植的痕迹较为浓厚，导致针对民族地区的外部政策冲击往往是更有利于资本和高技能劳动力的，但随着民族地区经济的持续发展和融合，其政策冲击的敏感性将持续减弱。第五，民族地区的相对贫困呈上升态势，相对贫困问题在民族地区开始凸显，相对贫困的理念应纳入到未来减贫政策的理念中。并且以贫困距和平方贫困距度量的相对贫困也呈现明显的恶化，这表明民族地区不仅在总体经济增长方面体现了不均等，在贫困人口内部的分配也存在越来越显著的差异。第六，民族地区经济增长的部门结构和劳动力密集程度能够对贫困减缓产生显著影响，第一产业和第三产业对贫困减缓的影响较大，第二产业作用最小。分农村和城市来看，在农村第一产业是最为有效的贫困减缓来源，而在城市地区第三产业是最为有效的贫困减缓来源。经济发展方式转变能够为民族地区实现可持续减贫提供结构性动力来源。未来民族地区实现可持续减贫的关键在于，通过经济发展方式转变，一方面保持稳定经济增速，一方面构建基于本地禀赋优势的产业体系，增强经济发展对本地居民的包容性。第七，民族地区贫困具有不流动性，过去贫困状态对当期贫困具有显著正向影响，存在持续贫困可能。人均教育经费支出对贫困减缓无显著影响；教育质量提升对城市贫困减缓具有显著正向作用，教育数量扩展对农村减贫作用更为突出，但教育数量扩展对西部农村贫困减缓具有“门槛效应”。分教育构成来看，由于离技术前沿距离较远，中等教育对西部城乡减贫的意义更为显著。在谋求以教育推动减贫的政策实践中，应尤为关注教育质量和教育数量的权衡替代以及城乡贫困对不同程度教育敏感度的不同。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the reason of location, resources endowment and historical factors, ethnic area isthe most difficulty and important region for China’s poverty reduction. All the anti-povertyprograms focus on ethnic area since1986, such as poverty county policy,87nationalpoverty alleviation program and the development-oriented poverty reduction program forrural China and so on which enhance the poverty situation of ethnic area greatly. However,the populations below poverty line in ethnic area are much more than other areas. Ethnicarea is characterized by the largest number of poor people and the largest rate of fallingback to poverty again. The depth and width of poverty in ethnic area is higher than nationalaverage level. The people in ethnic area are lack of self-development capacity. The formerpoverty reduction achievement depends heavily on poverty reduction program and transferpayment. Nowadays, the effect of economic on poverty reduction is weaker than beforeand ethnic area faces the risk of persist poverty and spatial poverty. How to achieve thepersistence poverty reduction is the key factor for China to complete the building of amoderately prosperous society in all respects. So, based on the reality need and the finalaim of human development, the ethnic area’s poverty problem is worth more attention tofind the more effective measure and identify the mechanism of poverty reduction to let theethnic area get rid of poverty forever.For the aim of finding the trend of poverty dynamic evolution and searching for themore effective poverty reduction measure, this paper includes two aspects: firstly, we willreview the poverty reduction history of ethnic area; secondly, we will analyze the factorsaffecting poverty reduction, and identify poverty reduction mechanism.In order to analyze the trend of poverty dynamic evolution, we describe the someeconomic indices of ethnic area, such as economic development, industry structure,income of people in poverty, income and consumption of different subgroups. After then,we use FGT index to measure poverty incidence rate, poverty gap and squared poverty gapof ethnic area. We also analyze the trend of poverty from different period.We analyze the poverty reduction factors and mechanism from the view of microobservation along the way of "economic growth-employment-income distribution-income growth (poverty reduction)". The factors that influence poverty reduction can bedivided into three aspects:(1) The demand factors that influence poverty reduction aremainly economic growth and industry structure. Economic growth can increase the labordemand by trick-down effect. And the employment structure is depended on industrystructure, the economy with a higher growth rate which can absorb more low-skill laborforces will gain greater poverty reduction;(2) Human resource is the main supply factorsthat can influence poverty reduction. The people with more education attainment andhigher education quality can induce more poverty reduction, because they can gain ahigher wage;(3) Income distribution can also influence poverty reduction. Incomedistribution is mainly depended on markup in production market and labor market. A larger markup in production market means more surplus reward for capital and labor force toshare. Meanwhile, the labor market markup determines the final labor share or capitalshare of income. We don’t focus on the market markup, because we assume the marketmarkup is a constant variable in a short time. So, the main factors that influence povertyreduction we analyze are economic growth, industry structure and education.This paper has eleven chapters. Chapter one is an introduction. In this part, we discussthe context and meaning of this paper. We also identify the emphasis, difficulty, innovation,shortage and the direction for future research. Chapter two is a literature review. In thispart, we define some main conceptions referred and review the literatures on therelationship of economic growth and poverty reduction. We identify the main factors thatinfluence poverty reduction by analyze the relative theory and empirical conclusions.Chapter three analyze the social-economic development and poverty reduction of ethnicarea through describing the economic growth, industry structure, education attainment,income and quantity of poor people. Chapter four is a study on the theory of povertymeasurement. In this part, we discuss the measurement of FGT poverty indices such aspoverty incidence rate, poverty gap and squared poverty gap based on Lorenz curve.Chapter five and six discuss the poverty dynamic trend of ethnic area by calculating theFGT poverty index of urban and rural area. We also identify the different poverty reductioncharacters of different provinces. In chapter seven, we construct a theory model to analyzethe factors that may influence the poverty reduction based on the main characters of ethnicarea. Chapter eight researches the relationship among economic growth, incomedistribution and poverty reduction in ethnic area. We discompose the poverty reductioninto growth effect and distribution effect using Datt-Ravallion method. Chapter nineconstructs a theory model to analyze the relationship among industry structure, laborintensive and poverty reduction in ethnic area, and test the relationship through anempirical method. We also do a robust test for urban area and rural area to ensure therelationship. Chapter ten is a research on the relationship between education and povertyreduction. In this part, we construct a theory model to import education variable into theendogenous growth theory. We also test the relationship by doing an empirical test androbust test. Chapter eleven gives the main conclusion of this paper and discusses thedirection for the future research.The main opinions and conclusions of this paper are:(1) The population below thepoverty line in ethnic area decrease consistently, but the rate is slower than other areas andby years. Ethnic area is still the deepest and widest area of poverty. The marginal effect ofpoverty relief instrument is declining now, so it is harder and harder for ethnic area to gaina consistent poverty reduction. Ethnic area faces the hardest part of poverty reduction.(2)The factors that can impact the poverty reduction effect come from three aspects, such aslabor demand, labor supply and income distribution. Economic growth and industrialstructure can impact poverty reduction through labor demand. Education attainment andeducation quality can impact poverty reduction through labor supply. Income distributioncan impact the transformation from economic growth to income of the poor. So, the mainfactors that can impact poverty reduction in ethnic area are economic growth, industrialstructure and human capital（.3）The effect of economic growth on poverty reduction is nothomogeneous among different income group. The higher income groups gain more from economic growth. The poverty reduction policy intends to aim on the people near thepoverty line. So, the poor people near the poverty line can gain a more rapid income andconsumption increase rate. However, the policy can not enhance the welfare of deeppoverty.(4) At the beginning of China’s Western Development Program, economic growthhas a significant trickle-down effect on all the groups, which increases the totalconsumption of all the groups. However, the trickle-down effect of external-inducedeconomic growth on each group is not homogeneous. The higher income groups gain morethan other groups. Ethnic area rethinks the problem of fair or efficiency and absorbs theexternal-induced economy. And the economic growth of ethnic area is becoming morepro-poor. The impact of external policy on ethnic area is propitious to capital and high-skilllabors. But, when the ethnic area’s economy absorbs the external-induced industrialstructure, the high elasticity of policy will decline consistently.(5) Relative poverty ofethnic area is increasing. The poverty reduction policy in the future need emphasize therelative poverty problem. The poverty gap and squared poverty gap are increasing, whichshows the unfairness of income distribution among the poor people.(6) The pattern ofeconomic growth and the degree of labor-intensive do have significant effect on povertyreduction. The primary and the tertiary sectors are the real driving force in ethnic areas’progress against poverty, and the effect of the secondary sector on poverty reduction is theweakest. The key points for west China to achieve sustainable poverty reduction are: onone hand, the ethnic areas should hold a rapid and steady growth; on the other hand, thepattern of economic growth should be based on local comparable advantage and enhancethe inclusiveness of local labors. Meanwhile, we should reduce the trade cost ofparticipating the economic activities.(7) Poverty is stable, so it exists persistent poverty inWest China; education expenditure has no significant influence on poverty reductionbecause of the tradeoff between education quality and average years of school attainment;the quality of education can achieve more poverty reduction in urban area than averageyears of school attainment; average years of school attainment has a threshold effect onrural poverty reduction, and effective education has negative influence on povertyreduction. As west China is far away from technology frontier, so medium education ismore important for rural poverty reduction.更多还原