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我国文化企业成长性评价与预测研究

Evaluation and Forecasting of the Growth on Cultural Enterprise in China

【作者】 林榅荷

【导师】 吕庆华;

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 , 企业管理, 2013, 博士

【摘要】 文化是民族的血脉,是人民的精神家园,扎实推进社会主义文化强国建设势在必行。2012年,十八大报告提出“增强国有公益性文化单位活力,完善经营性文化单位法人治理结构,繁荣文化市场”、“要坚持把社会效益放在首位,社会效益和经济效益相统一”。文化产业欲成为国民经济支柱性产业,需要有一批具有持续成长力的文化企业支撑和引领。当前,在文化产业快速发展的大潮,一大批文化企业茁壮成长。然而,不少文化企业成长仍处于探索阶段,表现出创新能力和人才匮乏、平均寿命短、无抗风险能力等弱成长性,文化企业也遭遇到了成长危机。目前对文化企业的研究主要是政策环境分析、盈利模式和并购方式等政策导向式探讨,针对文化企业特征,对文化企业成长性进行评价的文章寥寥无几。可以说,文化企业成长性是一个新鲜而重要的研究领域,对其进行评价分析具有重要意义。文化企业成长性需要经济效益和社会效益共同发挥作用。为了提高文化企业经济效益和社会效益,本文将资源学派、能力学派和创意生态理论应用于文化企业成长性评价研究,构建“文化企业资源-文化企业能力-文化企业生态成长”的态势模型;在此理论模型基础上,采用专家访谈法、相关分析、区分度分析等方法甄别影响文化企业成长性的关键因素,并构建文化企业成长性评价体系;然后应用Entropy-VIKOR法综合评价文化企业成长性,划分文化企业成长性类别,从横向和纵向揭示文化企业成长作用机理;并对文化企业2012年和2013年的成长性情况进行预测;最后,提出促进文化企业成长内外生策略,从而实现推动文化企业健康持续成长的目标。主要研究发现如下:(1)文化企业的成长过程具备有机体的生命特征,可以利用创意生态学的视角,吸收创新指标、多样性指标和环境适应性指标作为度量我国文化企业的生态成长指数,来探究文化企业的成长性。(2)影响我国文化企业成长性的因素主要包括成长资源(无形资源、有形资源、人力资源)、成长能力(营运能力、盈利能力、偿债能力、市场营销能力、市场预期能力)、生态成长(创新、多样性、环境适应性),这些因素都是文化企业成长过程中不可忽视的因素。在提出文化企业成长性的外生策略部分,得出影响文化企业成长性的外部环境因素主要包括政府支持力、金融生态环境、文化产业发展、文化资源情况、区域创新网络和相关支撑产业发展。(3)文化企业成长性生态因子权重顺序从高到底分别为生态成长、成长能力、成长资源。从评价指标体系二级指标的权重得出,文化企业的营运能力、创新能力、多样性和无形资源贡献率为前四名,占据重要的地位。(4)从2011年成长性排名来看,文化企业之间的成长性表现存在着发展不均衡现象,从行业分布来看,优秀成长性都是传媒类文化企业,大多数文化企业在成长资源、成长能力和生态成长方面发展不平衡,且处于资源积累的阶段,对生态成长能力关注不足,优秀文化企业的成长能力排名往往优于成长资源和生态成长指标。(5)在对文化企业成长性纵向分析发现:2008年至2011年保持持续增长的文化企业就有9家,而中间虽然有波动,但是2011年仍然维持良好发展态势就有19家文化企业,整体表现良好,且2012年和2013年我国文化企业成长性总体上表现出“强者恒强、弱者恒弱、中等起伏大”的特征。

【Abstract】 Culture is the lifeblood of the nation, and the spiritual home of people. It isimperative to build on pushing forward the socialist cultural powerfulcountry.The section “Developing a Strong Socialist Culture in China” proposedthat “We should invigorate state-owned non-profit cultural institutions, improvecorporate governance of profit-oriented cultural entities, and create a thrivingcultural market” and “We should ensure both social effect and economic benefits,with priority on the former” on report at the18th National Congress of theCommunist Party of China (CPC) in2012. Becoming a pillar industry of thenational economy, cultural industries need for cultural enterprises with sustainedgrowth force to enhance the cultural strength and competitiveness. In the rapiddevelopment of cultural industries, a large number of cultural enterprises growsturdily. Cultural enterprises, however, is still in the stage of exploratory growth.Many cultural enterprises demonstrated the weak growth with lack of innovationand personnel, short average life expectancy, and no ability to resist risks et al.Cultural enterprises also encounter growth crisis. Current studies on culturalenterprises focus on policy environment analysis, profit model, mergers andacquisitions and other policy-oriented discussion. Few articles study theevaluation on the growth of cultural enterprises according to the characteristics ofcultural enterprises. The growth of cultural enterprises is a fresh and importantfield and its evaluation and analysis has important significance.The growth of cultural enterprises requires the combined action of theeconomic and social benefits. It is based on the enhancement of economic andsocial benefits for the growth of cultural enterprises. This study applied thetheory of resource endowment, dynamic capabilities and creative ecologic toevaluate the growth of cultural enterprises, and constructed “resources of culturalenterprise-competence of cultural enterprise-ecological growth of culturalenterprise” trend model. Based on this theoretical model, it used methods ofexpert interviews, correlation analysis, discrimination analysis to screen keyinfluencing affect for the growth of cultural enterprise and built evaluation system on the growth of cultural enterprise, and applied Entropy-VIKOR tocomprehensively evaluate the growth of cultural enterprises, classified thegrowth of cultural enterprise and revealed growth mechanism of culturalenterprises from horizontal and vertical aspect; and then predicted the growth ofcultural enterprises in2012and2013, lastly summarized the countermeasures foron the growth of cultural enterprises in order to achieve the goal of healthy andsustainable growth of cultural enterprises.This paper’s findings were as follows:(1) the growth process of culturalenterprises had the characteristics of organism’s life, and could take advantage ofcreative ecology perspective to absorb diversity index, innovation index andenvironmental adaptability index as a measure of ecological growth in China’scultural enterprises, and explored the growth of cultural enterprise.(2) Theinfluencing factors on the growth of cultural enterprise in China included growthresources (intangible resources, tangible resources, human resources), growthcompetence(operating competence, profitability competence, solvencycompetence, marketing competence, market expectations competence),ecological growth (innovation, diversity, and environmental adaptability). Thesefactors could not be ignored in the process of the growth of cultural enterprise.The influencing factors of external environment on the growth of culturalenterprise mainly included government support, financial ecological environment,development of cultural industries, cultural resources, regional innovationnetworks and development of related supporting industries on the exogenousstrategy part for the growth of cultural enterprise.(3) Ecological factor for thegrowth of Cultural enterprises on weighting order were ecological growth,growth competence, growth resources from high reducing to a lower rank.Derived from the weighting of evaluation index system on secondary indicators,top four of contribution rate were operating competence, innovation, diversity ofcultural enterprises and intangible resources occupied an important position.(4)There was uneven development on the growth of cultural enterprises judgingfrom the2011growth rankings. Excellent growth was media class culturalenterprises. The majority of cultural enterprises were uneven development among growth resources, growth competence and ecological growth, and at the stage ofaccumulating resources, and lack of concerning about ecological growth. Growthcompetence of excellent cultural enterprises ranked often higher than growthresources and ecological growth index.(5) There were nine cultural enterprisesmaintaining sustainable growth from2008to2011. There were19culturalenterprises maintaining a good momentum development in2011thoughfluctuated in the middle, judged from the longitudinal analysis on the growth ofcultural enterprises. The growth kept good performance overall. The growth ofcultural enterprises in China possessed the characteristics of “the strong alwayswas the winner, the weak continued to be weak, the moderate was ups anddowns” in2012and2013.

  • 【网络出版投稿人】 华侨大学
  • 【网络出版年期】2014年 09期
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