【作者】 陈曼英；

【导师】 高轩能；

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 ， 结构工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着我国经济的迅速发展，城市化进程大大加快，地铁以其快捷、高效、运输量大、污染少、占用地上面积少等特点，成为解决城市交通问题的主要方式之一。地铁人流集中，发生火灾时，人员疏散和扑救工作非常困难，因此，对地铁火灾风险进行科学的分析和评估，提出预防地铁火灾的措施和应急预案，为减小和避免地铁火灾造成的人员伤亡和财产损失具有重要的意义。论文从数理统计理论、风险分析理论和系统安全理论出发，探寻引发地铁火灾事故的关键影响因素，建立地铁火灾风险的评价指标体系，对地铁火灾风险进行模糊综合评估；采用模糊故障树分析方法研究各主要风险因素发生的概率对地铁火灾发生影响程度的大小，对地铁火灾风险进行定量评估。（1）采用故障树分析方法，建立地铁火灾事故的故障树模型，通过最小割集的求解，探寻引发地铁火灾事故的基本原因，对地铁火灾的危险源进行辨识。（2）从数理统计理论和系统安全管理理论出发，通过问卷调查的方法并结合辨识的火灾危险源，建立以人、设备、管理、环境为一级指标的系统、科学和可操作性强的地铁火灾风险评价指标体系；采用模糊层次分析法，确定地铁火灾风险评价指标的权重。运用建立的评价指标体系，采用模糊综合评价法对某地铁车站的火灾风险进行评估，反映该地铁车站的实际安全状况，为地铁管理公司和消防管理部门的消防监督和检查提供依据。（3）建立地铁火灾主要风险因素的故障树，运用模糊数学和故障树耦合的分析方法对地铁火灾的风险进行评估，通过定量分析，得出地铁火灾事故发生的概率；对故障树底事件的重要度进行计算，求出各底事件的概率重要度和临界重要度，通过对重要度的大小进行排序，作为安排预防地铁火灾措施先后的参考，该方法为地铁的火灾风险评估提供新思路。（4）对控制地铁火灾风险的关键途径进行剖析，指出控制地铁火灾风险的关键在于减小可燃物的存在、控制人的不安全行为和提高消防灭火系统的可靠性，并从人员、设备、管理、环境四个角度出发，提出减小地铁火灾风险的具体控制措施。上述研究为提高我国地铁系统的运营安全提供保障，也为我国地铁火灾保险制度的建立和地铁火灾保险费率的厘定提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of China’s economy, the urbanization process hasgreatly accelerated. Taking subway, with the characteristics of quick speed, highefficiency, giant ability of transportation, low pollution and small occupied areas, hasbecome one of the main ways to deal with a city’s traffic problems. The subway is aplace with high population concentration so that it’s difficult to evacuate people andundertake fire fighting when the fire happens. Therefore, analyzing and evaluating thesubway fire risks scientifically and putting forward measures and emergency plans ofpreventing the subway fires make great sense in reducing and avoiding casualties andproperty damages that caused by the subway fires.Proceeding from mathematical statistics theory, risk analysis theory and systemsafety theory, the thesis first explores the key influencing factors of the subway fireaccidents, and establishes the evaluation index system of the subway fire risks, andalso makes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the safety risks of the subway fires.Then, it adopts fuzzy fault tree analysis method to study the influencing degree of theprobability that every major risk factor will occur on the subway fire, and alsoconduct a quantitative evaluation on the subway fire risks.Establish a fault tree model of the subway fire accident by fault tree analysismethod. Find out the fundamental causes of the subway fire accident and identify thehazard sources of the subway fire by getting minimum cut.Proceeding from the mathematical statistics theory and system safety theory，thethesis establishes a systematic, scientific and strong operational evaluation indexsystem of the subway fire risks by making questionnaires and combined withrecognized fire hazard sources, which regards personnel, equipment, management andenvironment as first-class index. Determine the weights in evaluation index of thesubway fire risks by the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Apply establishedevaluation index system to evaluate the fire risks of a subway station by the fuzzycomprehensive evaluation method and then reflect the actual security situation of the subway station, which can provide the basis for the firefighting supervision andinspection of the subway management companies and firefighting departments.Establish the fault tree of the subway fire’s major risk factors. Evaluate the subwayfire risks by applying the fuzzy mathematics and fault tree coupling analysis method.And obtain the probability of the subway fire accident by quantitative analysis.Calculate the importance degree of fault tree’s bottom events and work out theprobability importance degree and critical importance degree of every bottom event.Then the sorting of the importance degrees can be served as a reference of arrangingthe order of the subway fire’s preventive measures. The method provides newthoughts for the subway fire risk assessment.Analysis the critical path of controlling the subway fire risks and point out thatthe key lies in reducing combustible, controlling people’s unsafe behavior andimproving the reliability of firefighting systems. Besides, propose control measuresto reduce the subway fire risks from personnel, equipment, management andenvironment.The above study provides guarantees for improving the security of China’s subwayoperation. And it also provides a reference for establishing China’s insurance systemsof the subway fires and pricing the premium rate of the subway fires.更多还原