【作者】 崔雪竹；

【导师】 王要武；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 土地作为人类生产、生活的物质载体是人类一切活动的前提和基础。从人类诞生以来，人类的不断进化和人类社会的不断演化改变了土地自然生态系统原来的状态，使之不断向有利于人类自身发展的方向变化，因此也被认为是人类对于土地和自然生态系统的“殖民化”。在我国经济快速发展以及城市化、工业化进程不断推进的的步伐中，城市扩张趋势明显，土地资源需求量与日俱增，大量原有的生态用地包括农业生产用地等逐渐转化为城市建设用地，并由此带来一系列生态、环境问题，引起社会各界广泛关注。在此背景下，如何把握城市土地利用变化的主要动因和驱动机制，识别城市土地利用变化所带来的负面影响，并由此作出相应的政策响应成为优化我国城市土地利用，推动社会经济可持续发展的一把钥匙。本论文对城市土地利用相关基本概念进行了界定，依据可持续发展理论对城市土地利用的可持续发展方式进行了分析，以物质代谢论为依据对城市土地利用变化下的物质代谢过程进行了梳理，指出城市土地利用的变化必然影响到城市社会物质流动和代谢的变化，并最终确立本文的基本研究架构：城市土地利用的LMR框架模型。文章从影响土地利用变化的驱动因素分析出发，根据土地利用变化的基本特征对自然地理影响因素和社会人文影响因素进行了初步分析，通过对驱动因素作用机制的讨论和指标体系的构建，用改进的主成分回归模型对影响城市土地利用变化的社会人文驱动力进行量化分析，全面揭示城市土地利用扩张的根源和动力所在；提出驱动因素影响下的土地利用变化态势分析方法，包括土地利用动态度分析、土地利用结构分析，以及土地利用效率分析，为土地利用变化的物质代谢效应探索提供基础。文章以土地利用变化为核心，以物质代谢论为理论基础，在大量统计数据和跟踪式的资料收集和归纳式的数据整理的基础上，通过对城市物质代谢核算边界的界定、代谢逻辑模型的搭设、代谢指标体系的梳理、以及代谢实施步骤的确定，形成了比较完善的城市尺度的物质代谢核算体系，为土地利用变化下的城市物质代谢核算提供了科学的方法与工具。在驱动机制分析和物质代谢核算的基础上，文章进一步实施了以城市土地利用变化为背景的物质代谢效应量化分析。通过典型相关模型的构建，分别从代谢通量和代谢效率两个方面进行研究，并对模型输出结果进行应用分析，从而进一步得出用地政策响应的作用点和作用路径，为土地利用政策的制定提供了科学、合理的方法。最后，文章以上海市为研究对象，进行了全过程的实证研究，通过一系列的分析和研究，基于上海市城市土地利用变化的物质代谢效应量化结果，从可持续发展的指导思想出发，以平衡物质代谢通量、提高物质代谢效率、节约自然资源和社会资源、促进社会经济可持续发展为目的，确定了完善上海市土地利用方式的政策建议作用点，从耕地、工业用地、城市生态用地、道路交通用地以及综合城市规模等几个方面出发，提出了具体的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Land isnecessary for human survival, and all kinds of the human activities dependon its basic function of carring. Since the existence of the human beings, the originalsituation of the natural ecological system has changed a lot under the evolution of thehuman beings and their society. This has also been considered as the "colonization" ofthe natural ecosystem. In the process of the urbanization and industrialization, urbanland use demand has increasing sharply and coming with expansion of the urban landarea. That has led to a conversion of the ecological land including the cultivated land tothe urban construction land, which brings many problems concerning the resource,environment, and ecological system. Under this circumstance, the understanding of thesocial anthropology driving force, the land use change situation, the social metabolismeffect causing by land use change, is help for giving the policy and suggestion tooptimize the urban land use and accelerating the society and economy sustainabledevelopment.In thispaper, the basicconcept was defined firstly, and the sustainable developmenttheory has been used to interprete the sustainable land use in the cities, while thematerial metabolism theory has been applied to analyze the social metabolsim inShanghai. The relationship between the urban land use change and the socialmetabolism can be detected according with this conception. And as a result, the studyframe was establisned which shown as the drive-state-response theoretical model forurban land use.It starts with the drivingfactors of land use change, and makes the analysis of thenatural factors and the social factors on the base of the feature of the change. Thedriving mechanism is discussed and the conceptual model is given. Through the indexeschoosing,the principle component analysis is used to establish the driving relationshipquantification between the urban land use change and its influence factors. After theinterpretation of the model is given, the method of land use state understanding isspecified by the land use change dynamic degree analysis, the land use structureanalysis and the land use efficiency analysis. This provides the data preparation of thestudy on the response of land use change analysis.Based on the land use change target and the material metabolism theory, a largeamount ofsocial metabolism data was collected and processed, and the interpretation ofthe metabolism boundry, frame, the indexes, and thesteps, the material metabolismfeature, amount, efficiency was studied. And the effect of urban land use change onsocial metabolism is detected by the establisnment of the canonical model which gives aclear description on the relationship of the land use change and its influence on material flow.This makes the social metabolism quatification method better fit for this study andprovides the data base of relationship understanding between the land use change andsocial metabolism,The response of the social metabolism on urban land use change is detected basedon the former study. To clarify the implication of the social impact in this paper, thesocial metabolism changes causing by the land use change is used to reflect thisrelationship. By the indexes system establishment, the canonical correlation model isapplied to analyze the quantity response and the efficiency response to urban land usechange. According to the result applicating study, the policy adjustment points are foundto improve the land use styles and enhance the social metabolism efficiency and balancethe metabolism amount. This can be seen as a proper way to make a purposeful policymaking on urban land use.Shanghai is taken as the study object to exploring it driving forces of urban landuse change, land use state, metabolism impact and the policy response. Based on theresults of this study, the land use suggestions are given on the point derived from themodel establishment and analysis to enhance the social metabolism efficient andbalance the metabolism amount, which may lead to a sustainable development. Thesuggestions are concerning the cultivated land, industrial land, urban ecolocgical land,road and traffic land and city scale control.更多还原