【作者】 王钰；

【导师】 郭振；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨商业大学 ， 产业经济学， 2013， 博士

【摘要】 随着资源、环境和经济发展间的矛盾不断加深,人类经济活动引发的全球气候变暖日益严重,发展低碳经济已经成为全球共识。低碳经济是指在资源和环境双重约束下,为了减少人类经济活动对气候系统的负面影响,通过技术创新和制度设计等途径,尽量减少矿物质高碳能源的消耗,减少温室气体的排放,实现人类生存、经济、社会和生态环境可持续发展的经济发展方式。在低碳经济约束下,如何更好地发展经济,特别是进行工业生产,成为迫切需要解决的问题。本文以发展低碳经济对产业国际竞争力的影响为切入点,按低碳经济对产业国际竞争力发展的要求,在一般产业国际竞争力指标体系的基础上,引入低碳化指标层,利用德尔菲法和AHP法分配权重后,对1995～2010年中国制造业基于低碳经济的产业国际竞争力变动状况进行测评和比较,发现低碳经济对劳动力密集型产业(纺织业等)、技术密集型产业(通讯电子业等)的影响不大,而对高碳产业(能源密集型产业)影响较大。本文在研究过程中的主要创新点包括以下三个方面：(1)围绕对低碳经济内涵的界定,引入了产业国际竞争力的低碳化指标层,并利用德尔菲法和AHP方法对低碳经济下产业国际竞争力的五个一级指标分配权重,构建了低碳经济下产业国际竞争力的评价指标体系。(2)对1995～2010年中国制造业低碳经济下产业国际竞争力变动状况进行测评和比较。运用一般产业国际竞争力评价指标体系进行评价,中国制造业28个产业的国际竞争力显著提高,横向比较可以看出纺织业的国际竞争力自然下降。如果引入低碳化水平指标,则大多数产业的低碳化指标为正值,且每个产业的低碳水平指标均处于长期波动状态。表明减排的机制没有生成,内部的减排动力不足,受外界影响较大,缺乏减排的内生机制。(3)采用动态面板数据运用System GMM方法对低碳经济下产业国际竞争力的影响因素进行实证分析,结果发现二氧化碳排放与产业结构、能源消费结构、出口结构和外商投资产业结构等均不同程度正相关。而随着各产业劳动生产效率的提高,产业的二氧化碳排放强度应先上升后下降,在外界环境较为宽松的条件下,可能出现“N型”重组效应。根据上述研究结果,同时考虑到对1960～2010年间中国的二氧化碳排放满足环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的验证结果,表明中国二氧化碳排放强度与人均GDP之间存在“倒U”关系,且拐点在人均.GDP为18769.72美元。在现有的国际环境和气候变化条件下,中国以现有的经济发展速度不可能单纯保持GDP增长速度被动等待拐点的到来。因此,中国提升产业国际竞争力应从七个方面入手,包括稳定经济增长并转变经济增长方式；制定产业绿色转型发展战略；调整产业结构并促进产业融合;鼓励低碳技术的引进和创新；建立全国统一碳交易市场；合理配置减排治理政策以及积极参与国际减排标准的制定并加强国际交流合作。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the contradiction between the resources, environment and economic development deepening, the human economic activities cause global climate warming more and more seriously, so the development of low carbon economy has been the global common recognition. Low carbon ecnonomy refers to under the double constrains of resources and environmental, in order to reduce negative effects of human economic activities on the climate system, we must though technology innovation and institution design as far as possible to reduce the consumption of mineral high carbon energy, and reduce greenhouse gae emission, at last realize human survival, economy, social and ecological environment sustainable development. Low carbon economy is a mode of economic development which we must choice. How to develop the economy better, especially industrial production, which has become a problem that needs us to solute urgently.Based on the influence of development of low carbon economy on the industry international competitiveness as the breakthrough point, according to the requirements of low carbon economy to the industry international competitiveness, introduce the low carbon index layer into the general system of industry international competitiveness. After using the Delphi method and AHP method to distribute the weight of every index layer, the result shows that low carbon economy has little effect on the labour intensive industry(texitile industry,etc.) and high technology industry(communication electronics, etc.), but has noteworthy effect on high carbon industry(energy intensive industry) by evaluating and comparing the situation and changes in industry international competitiveness based on the low carbon economy of China manufacturing industry during1995and2010.The main innovation points of in the research process include the following three aspects:(1)Introdution the industry international competitiveness of low carbon index layer enclosing the connotation of low carbon economy. Consruct the industry international competitiveness evaluation index system based on the low carbon economy and use the Delphi method and AHP method to distribute the weight of five onelevel indexes.(2)Evaluation and comparision of the situation and changes in the China manufacturing industry international competitiveness during1995and2010. If using the general industrial international competitiveness evaluation index system,28industries of China manufacturing industry international competitiveness have been improved outstandingly, but international competitiveness of textile industry is declining normally through the transverse comparison. When the low carbon indexes are introduced, although international competitiveness of most industries are positive, the situation of every industy is in the long wave state. It shows that every industry has not formatted the reduction emission mechanism due to the lack of internal notive power, and is easy to be affected by outside factors.(3)Empirical analysis of the influence factors of industry international competitiveness based on the low carbon economy adopting the dynamic panel data and system GMM method. The result shows that carbon dioxide emission and industry structure, energy consumption, export structure and foreigh investment industry structure are related with different degree. But with the industry labor production efficiency increasing, the carbon dioxide emission intensity increased firstly and then decreaed. It may apperar "N" restructure if the conditions outside are comfortable.In view of the above, and considering the result of the verification if1960-2010carbon emission of China meeting the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis. The result shows that the relationship between GDP per capita and carbon emission intensity of China is "inverted U", and the inflection point in the per capita GDP of＄18769.72. Therefore, according to the current international environment and climate change rate, China could not waiting for the natural arrival of the inflection point depending on the GDP growth rate. China can improve the industry international competitiveness from seven aspects, including stabling the growth of economy and transforming the mode of economy growth, formulating the industrial green development strategy, adjusting the industrial structure and promote industrial fusion, encouraging low carbon technology introduction and innovation, creating the national unified carbon trading market, configurating rational reduction management policies, participating in International Emissions Standards,strengthening international communication and cooperation.更多还原